Under the warm spring sun, tectonic movements were occurring in the center of Ankara on March 31st. Murat Oktay is a former government official and an ardent supporter of Turkiye’s Justice and Development Party (AK Party), led by President Recep Tayyip. President Erdoğan was waiting to cast his vote at the polling station. Since 2001, he has voted for President Erdoğan’s party 18 times, but on this day he addressed the economic difficulties plaguing the country by turning his back on the very political forces he helped foster. I was driven by a desire to do so. And his decision will reverberate throughout the country.
Millions of voters across Turkey faced an end to President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s long grip on power, as the AK Party suffered a shocking defeat in local elections to the secular opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP), which held a majority. He suggested that he might be hit. Fortresses in cities and countryside. The CHP’s victory in 14 large cities, 21 provinces, and 337 local councils marked a pivotal moment in Turkish politics, marking a clear break with the past.
The CHP received 37.76% of the vote and the AK Party received 35.48%. In last year’s presidential election, the CHP, which contested as part of an alliance, received less than 25% of the vote. Launched by Mustafa Kemal Atatürk, the founder of modern Turkiye, over the past 40 years This is a remarkable achievement for a party that has been forgotten for so long.
Results of the 2024 Turkiye local government elections held on March 31, 2024. Photo credit: Turkiye Supreme Electoral Council
Barometer of national sentiment
Local elections do not attract much attention in many parts of the world, but in Turkiye, where there is no state government like in India, local elections are an important barometer of public sentiment. In terms of political importance, the mayor of Istanbul may rival, say, the chief minister of Uttar Pradesh.
Moreover, local government is the third pillar of Türkiye’s governance structure after the presidency and parliament. They administer local taxes and are responsible for services such as transportation, land use, waste collection, water, gas, parks, roads, and other recreational facilities. Local councilors or mukhtars have great influence in their area.
In a landmark moment for the metropolis of Istanbul, re-elected mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu has also emerged as a strong challenger to Erdoğan. Given Istanbul’s economic enormity and demographic prominence, his victory is not just local, but also symbolic. His political capital could be the basis of his presumed national ambitions.
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Analysts say the victory in Istanbul, widely considered the epitome of Turkiye, gave Erdogan the political momentum and economic resources to advance his goal of reforming the constitution and extending his time in office. It points out that there is a possibility. There was also speculation that the party was planning to remove the word “secular” from the constitution.
President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan acknowledged his party’s defeat and said that the people had shown their will in the vote without any restrictions, which was of great benefit to Turkish democracy. “Regardless of the political views of the voters, the winner of this election is democracy and the will of the nation,” he said.
President Erdoğan admitted that his party had not been able to achieve the desired results, especially nine months after the general and parliamentary elections in which the AK Party was the winner. “We worked hard for the elections. AK Party staff worked harmoniously day and night, making self-sacrifice,” President Erdoğan said, noting that he visited 52 cities on campaign trail over the past two months. spoke.
Istanbul mayor and Republican People’s Party (CHP) candidate Ekrem İmamoğlu speaks to supporters celebrating in front of City Hall following the local government elections held across Turkiye in Istanbul on March 31st. Photo credit: Yasin Akgul/AFP
The loss of major cities and regions once considered bastions of AK Party support highlighted widespread disillusionment among voters, particularly regarding economic policy and the concentration of power. Economic conflict, characterized by persistent inflation and financial instability, emerged as a central theme in the election debate.
“It had a huge impact. There are about 15 million pensioners in this country. They all worked with first-time voters and young voters to change their loyalties to teach Erdogan a lesson. ” political commentator Mehmet Ozturk told Frontline. The rising cost of living was a theme for young voters.
The CHP’s resurgence beyond its traditional coastal strongholds and into the heartland of Anatolia signifies a profound realignment in Turkish politics. This expansion reflects the broad appeal of CHP’s message, which resonates with voters across diverse regions and demographics. The party’s success is therefore not just a numerical victory, but evidence of changing political and social dynamics within Turkiye.
Highlights In Turkiye, voters signal a potential end to Erdogan’s rule as the AK Party faces regional defeats by the secular opposition CHP and gains urban and rural strongholds. In Istanbul, the re-election of Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu was a milestone. He emerges as Erdoğan’s challenger. The loss of major cities underscores voters’ disillusionment with the AK Party and highlights concerns about its economic policies and centralization of power. A new force, Yeniden Refa Partisi, emerges.
new political force
The elections also witnessed the emergence of a new political force, the Yeniden Refa Partisi (New Welfare Party), which managed to carve a gap in the political landscape. The Islamist party led by Ali Fatih Erbakan, Erdogan’s mentor and son of former Prime Minister Necmetin Erbakan, emerged as the third largest political force, winning 6.19 percent of the vote and winning one major city and one province. I got it under control. In some cities, the party received 20-30% of the vote.
The party sided with Mr. Erdoğan in the 2023 presidential election, but quickly parted ways. The party’s performance signals the emergence of a new Islamist party, a development that could have a lasting impact on Turkiye’s political spectrum. The traditional Islamist Saadat party suffered a crushing defeat in the election, along with two other ultranationalist parties, the MHP and the Good Party.
Ali Fatih Erbakan, head of the New Welfare Party, speaks at a rally in Istanbul ahead of local elections in Turkiye. Mehmet Altinos, the party’s Istanbul mayoral candidate, can also be seen. |Photo credit: Dilara Senkaya/Reuters
Analysts say the election results show it’s not just a partisan victory. It functions as a tacit referendum on the administration’s policies. It is also a clarion call for reform and an embodiment of the people’s desire for accountability, transparency and respect for democratic norms.
The geopolitical implications of these elections are also important. President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s foreign policy, particularly his stance on Israel and the Gaza conflict, has come under scrutiny, reflecting voters’ expectations for Turkey’s more assertive position on the international stage. Many voters had expressed anger that Erdogan had not taken enough action against Israel. Although President Erdoğan did organize public rallies and express opposition to Israeli shelling, many on the streets were calling for an end to diplomatic and commercial ties with Israel.
A glimpse of the future?
The election results offer a glimpse into the future direction of the country as Prime Minister Turkiye navigates this new political terrain. The CHP’s rise and electoral changes demonstrate the need for a new approach to governance, economic policy, and Turkiye’s role on the world stage. The political story unfolding in Turkiye is not just about a change of leadership. It also represents a significant change in the country’s political and social structure.
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The implications are far-reaching and could change Turkiye’s strategic choices and domestic priorities. The opposition, led by the CHP and other emerging factions, stands at the threshold of a new era in Turkish politics, as President Erdoğan’s party reevaluates its position and strategy. This moment is not just about winning an election. It also reflects a desire for national renewal, accountability and a more inclusive and democratic model of governance.
In this context of change, the future of Turkish politics is on the verge of a new dawn. The message from voters is clear. This is a time for change, for a government that truly reflects the will and aspirations of its people, and marks the beginning of a new chapter in its storied political history.
Iftikhar Gilani is an Indian journalist based in Ankara.
