Levent Kenneth/Stockholm
The International Union for Democracy (UID), the main foreign political network aligned with Turkey’s ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP), is experiencing a notable shift in political signals, with President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s son Necmetin Bilal Erdoğan emerging as the key figure responsible for diaspora issues.
Founded in 2004, UID operates primarily across Europe and serves as the AKP’s most important proxy organization abroad. It mobilizes voters, organizes rallies, and shapes political opinion within expatriate Turkish and Muslim communities. Votes from abroad have become decisive in Turkish elections, and their importance is steadily increasing.
Bilal Erdogan last week assumed a high-profile role within the UID, despite holding no official position in the AKP or the Turkish government. He was the guest of honor at UID’s annual education conference on Dec. 25, speaking in a closed session and answering questions, according to participants familiar with the gathering. Senior AKP officials in attendance treated him with the respect normally reserved for party leaders, reinforcing the perception that he had been unofficially assigned responsibility for overseas political organizations.
This development comes after an unusual and notable break with protocol. Hours before Bilal took the stage, President Erdoğan hosted UID delegations from dozens of countries for a formal lunch at the presidential palace. Such events have historically been widely publicized by the UID and its leadership. But this time, neither UID nor its president shared any images, statements or acknowledgments from the meeting on social media.
Observers described the silence as unusual and deliberate. The UID regularly discloses even the smallest of contacts with President Erdoğan. The decision to ignore the palace invitation, an event considered a great honor among pro-government forces, signals a clear shift in focus. Sources close to the organization said that attention was deliberately focused on Bilal Erdogan’s appearance a few days later to signal that the diaspora’s leaders were refocusing around him.
Bilal Erdogan’s rise to fame is not limited to UID events. During his father’s official foreign visits, he is often placed in the front row of official ceremonies, sometimes ahead of cabinet ministers and senior state officials. Although he holds no elected or appointed office, his ceremonial status during state visits has long attracted attention in Turkish political and diplomatic circles.
The strategic importance of the UID lies in its ability to mobilize overseas voters. Under Türkiye’s electoral system, votes cast from abroad are counted after domestic votes are counted. In the 2023 presidential election, Erdoğan won 59.57% of the approximately 2 million votes cast overseas, securing a lead of more than 360,000 votes over opposition candidate Kemal Kilicdaroglu. In Germany, home to Europe’s largest Turkish diaspora, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan won about 65% of the foreign vote. A similar close margin was recorded in the 2018 election.
Germany’s domestic intelligence agency, the Federal Office for the Defender of the Constitution (BfV), identified the UID as the most prominent pro-Erdogan organization operating in Europe in its 2024 annual report. The report also noted the close ties between the UID and Islamist and nationalist circles in the Turkish diaspora.
Bilal Erdogan’s expanding role also intersects with the long-standing leadership of pro-government foundations in Türkiye. He is the chairman of Irim Yaima, a religious foundation focused on education, and a patron of several organizations focused on youth, education, and religion. The most controversial is the Turkish Youth Foundation (TÜGVA).
TÜGVA is widely described by critics and investigators as a jihadist organization operating under the cover of a non-governmental organization. Tugva functions as an extension of Turkish intelligence and has a secret mission to recruit young people from Turkey’s domestic and international diaspora communities to support President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s Islamist regime. Under Bilal Erdoğan’s patronage, the foundation operates dozens of dormitories across Turkey, has access to public schools through cultural cooperation agreements, and actively promotes political Islam in line with the ideology of the Muslim Brotherhood.
The foundation is accused of helping to staff state institutions with supporters and contributing to the creation of an ideologically aligned bureaucracy. In the past few years, documents disclosed by whistleblowers showed that individuals whose names appeared on the list drawn up by TÜGVA were later employed by state agencies.
Bilal Erdoğan’s name is also closely associated with one of the most important political scandals in modern Turkish history. On December 17, 2013, Turkish prosecutors opened a major corruption investigation involving members of the Erdoğan family, ministers, and businessmen close to the government. Bilal Erdogan was investigated as a key figure suspected of managing contacts with businessmen and tracking funds from a so-called “money pool” formed to bribe then-Prime Minister Erdogan.
A wiretap released at the time allegedly recorded a conversation between President Bilal Erdoğan and his father discussing large sums of money. The investigation was called off within weeks. Police officers, prosecutors, and judges involved in the incident were fired, arrested, and later sentenced to long prison terms, including life in prison, for attempting to overthrow the government. Erdogan’s government has described the investigation as an attempted coup.
President Bilal Erdogan has denied any wrongdoing, and ultimately no charges were brought against him.
Since then, his public role has steadily expanded. He frequently appears at events organized by pro-government civil society organizations and speaks on domestic and international politics. Earlier this month, he appeared with representatives of Turkey’s four biggest soccer clubs to promote pro-Palestinian demonstrations scheduled for January 1, an unprecedented demonstration of collaboration between sports institutions and political activity in Turkey.
It is politically important for Bilal Erdoğan to be at the center of UID activities. President Erdogan remains firmly in power, but debate over his successor has intensified due to his age and health. In pro-government circles, Bilal Erdogan’s name is increasingly being mentioned along with other family members, including Erdogan’s son-in-law, drone manufacturer Selcuk Bayraktar, and his other son-in-law, former finance minister Berat Albayrak. Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan, a former intelligence chief widely known as Erdogan’s “black box,” and former Interior Minister Suleiman Soylu, whose reputation has been tarnished by alleged ties to organized crime but is backed by nationalist groups, are also being mentioned as possible candidates.
Although no formal announcement has been made, recent developments suggest that responsibility for organizing and coordinating Turkey’s diaspora network is shaping up around Bilal Erdoğan in a symbolic and leadership role. His high protocol status, central role in the UID’s latest meetings, and the organization’s conspicuous silence regarding Erdoğan’s own invitation suggest a planned and coordinated repositioning, indicating that the UID is aligning itself around Bilal Erdoğan as its main political reference point.
For the AKP, control of the diaspora remains an important political asset. For President Bilal Erdoğan, the UID now appears to be acting as a network that extracts political direction from him, providing a platform to strengthen his influence, loyalty, and visibility abroad, and marking his emergence as a central figure in Turkey’s political future.
