US President Donald Trump has announced that he hopes to put an end to the Russian-Ukraine war by meeting in person with Russian President Vladimir Putin.
There is a strong opinion that as the war three years ago achieved its objectives, Moscow achieved most of its war’s objectives and emerged as a clear winner of this crushing war.
Following a call with Russian President Vladimir Putin on February 12, Donald Trump announced that the two leaders had agreed to start negotiations to end the war soon. The US president later proposed meeting with Putin in Saudi Arabia in the next few days to resolve the issue.
However, Ukrainian President Voldimir Zelenki feels isolated and excluded. On February 13, Zelensky said Ukraine would not accept bilateral deals between Russia and the United States to end the war if Kiev is not part of the negotiations.
Shortly afterwards, Trump indicated that Ukraine was part of the negotiations.
Speaking to reporters a day after the call, Trump said. “Of course they’re part of it. We had Ukraine, Russia, and other people would have been involved too. … A lot of folk in this game, I’d say what to you. This is a very interesting situation, but the Ukrainian War must end.”
The US President also stated that he wanted to welcome Russia to groups of 7-G7 (previously G8), from which the latter was exiled 10 years ago to invade Crimea.
Several politicians and analysts have interpreted this as a victory for Russia. This was led by former Afghanistan Vice President Amrula Saleh, who posted a lengthy thread on social media site X.
Did Putin win?
In September 2024, Putin released a video message pledging that all the goals Moscow had set for himself in the war would be “achieved.” He also reiterated that Russian troops were sent to Ukraine to defend the country’s Russian-speaking people against the “neo-Nazi dictatorship.”
Most have claimed that Russia has entered Ukraine to “denaghi” a country that was seen as a call for Kiev’s change of government. However, as the Ukrainian forces exerted fierce resistance, Moscow turned his attention to seizing the country’s southeastern side.
When Trump’s inauguration as President of Russia and Ukrainian, they intensified their attacks on each other to enter arguments in their positions of strength. However, neither side made a decisive profit during this period.
There is a strong perception that Putin has won, as the war is potentially near its end. Challenge on X (formerly Twitter), Amrullah Saleh writes: “Russia won the war. Putin achieved most of the strategic goals he set at the beginning of a special military operation against Ukraine.” He said he was a thorough explanation of why Russia emerged as a winner in this war. I stated the list.
The first reason he listed is that Ukraine does not obtain NATO membership.
This is important. Fear of NATO expansion along the Russian border was the main factor behind the Kremlin’s decision to attack Ukraine.
Putin argued that last Soviet President Mikhail Gorbachev had been assured by US leaders that the NATO alliance would not expand “a inch east” if the Soviet Union collapsed.
The prospect of joining NATO in Ukraine was first considered in 2008. However, after Russia invaded Georgia, the idea was placed on a back burner. Then, in 2014, Russia invaded Crimea. Ukraine has been lobbying to join NATO ever since. In fact, these calls have grown even greater after the February 2022 invasion.
However, despite its military support for Kyiv, NATO has uncommitted Ukraine’s demands. The final blow to the country comes when new US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegses said it would be unrealistic to join NATO.
The second reason listed is that “many of the Russian-speaking lands in Ukraine are already under Russian control.”
After being kicked out of central Ukraine on the first day of the invasion, Russia retreated to battles in the country’s south and east. On September 30, 2022, Russia announced the removal of four Ukraines: Luhansk, Donetsk, Zapolijazia and Carson.
Ukraine was able to recover some territory by launching multiple rebuttals, but large land remains under Russian occupation. Currently, Russia accounts for around 20% of Ukraine’s territory. Additionally, Russian forces are currently moving deeper into the country from the south and east, with fierce battles taking place at the forefront.
It is appropriate to mention that Ukraine currently controls the Russian territory of Kursk, which was currently occupied by a special attack launched by the Ukrainian army in August 2024. Ukraine wants to use this territory as a negotiating tip to end the war. .
The third reason Amrullah listed is that “The Transatlantic Alliance is upset.”
Without a doubt, a rift has appeared within NATO’s Ukrainian supporters. As ABC News recently stated, “President Donald Trump’s call to Russian President Vladimir Putin hit Europe and Ukraine as an earthquake.”
Within NATO, Hungary and Slovakia are publicly allying Russia. Turkey has been neutral since the start of the war and held an early ceasefire talk between Russia and Ukraine in 2022, independent of the NATO alliance.
Now, NATO members of Europe have noticed that Trump has launched peace talks without consulting with Putin. German defense minister Boris Pistorius called it “unfortunate,” saying, “The Trump administration has already made public concessions to Putin before negotiations begin.”
Taking the exception to the call, spokesman for British Prime Minister Kiel Starmer said there was “no negotiations on Ukraine without Ukraine.” Similarly, Estonian Defense Minister Hanno Pehulk said “we should not pass on the advantages to Russia before negotiations begin.”
There are also serious differences among NATO members regarding membership in the UKRAINE alliance, with the UK openly supporting Kyiv membership despite revealing that Ukraine will not join NATO .
The fourth reason Amurla quotes is that “sanctions failed to weaken the Russian economy or the Russian military.”
When Russian troops marched into Ukraine in February 2022, the country was punished by many international sanctions. However, as the war approaches its third anniversary, the effectiveness of these sanctions is being raised questionable. Several analysts and Western think tanks note that Moscow has managed to float by absorbing and avoiding the economic blows caused by these sanctions.
Russia has discovered alternative supply chains and is now able to access resources through third parties. It is known that several European countries that have joined the sanctions regime are still engaged in dealing with Russia. The GIS Report has published a detailed report on this. This can be read here.
Additionally, several Russian allies, including India, China and Iran, continued their business with Russia. For example, trade with Russia with India almost doubled to US$65 billion in 2023. In fact, both countries have begun trading payments for Rupee Ruble, which bypasses the US dollar.
Despite all sanctions, Russia was one of Europe’s fastest growing economies in 2023.
Amrula’s fifth reason is that “the multipolar world is now real, not just an abstract concept.”
Despite China’s emergence as the biggest challenger to the US, Russia’s firm endurance clearly shows that the unipolar world is over.
The expansion of BRICS also shows the emergence of a new multipole world. The 16th BRICS Summit, held in Kazan in October 2024, showed Bloc’s tenacity and dedication perhaps to promoting global orders.
Amrula also said, “The boycott of Russian energy and the destruction of the node stream have made Europe’s economy weaker than before the Ukrainian War.”
In this regard, Alabama University of Aviation writes: In response to economic sanctions imposed by the European Union, the US and the UK in the aftermath of the invasion, Russia arms energy exports by shutting off natural gas supply to Europe by 80%, thereby ensuring that Europe’s energy security poses a threat to. European countries have discovered alternative energy suppliers, but prices were significantly higher. ”
Natural gas prices have skyrocketed around 14% due to interference with the Nodstream pipeline, which supplied natural gas from Russia to Western Europe.
Amrula also pointed out that “the Russian military has modernised difficult methods, strengthened and experienced through hardships and sacrifices,” adding, “more as Russian weapons recovers and counters the entire NATO war industry. “It attracts clients of the company.”
This is a complicated issue as Russian arms exports declined in the wake of the Ukrainian War. According to previous Sipri reports, Russian arms exports fell 53% between 2014-18 and 2019-23. The report said the decline was observed to be rapid over the past five years.
Furthermore, the Russian arms market has shrunk from 31 countries in 2019 to just 12 countries in 2024. Some countries are trying to diversify their military supply chains to reduce Russian reliance on weapons. But much of this decline could be due to Russia’s immersion in the Ukrainian war. Once the war is over, Russian arms exports could increase again.
At the same time, several countries are obsessed with the combat performance of many Russian weapon systems. For example, Vladimir Artiakov, Vice-Chancellor of Rostek, said that in 2023, Russian systems such as the SU-35 Fighters, KA-52 helicopter, T-90 tanks, and heavy flame agents systems would be the result of the world. The Arms market has recorded a surge in the global arms market. Ukraine’s combat performance.
Veteran journalists, foreign policy experts, and chairman of the Eurasian Times editorial board said: Putin was provoked by Biden. After all, Russia has been betrayed for all the agreements that Americans made to end the Cold War. It was hard to imagine Ukraine being given the NATO membership that Biden and NATO ultimately promised. Trump does an amazing job of not pursuing that stupid goal. ”
That being said, Russia was also unable to achieve some of its war goals. For example, the Kyiv administration is still firmly in place, and NATO is expanding even further. Russian neighbours Sweden and Finland are also members of NATO.
Europe is successfully separated from Russian energy, with most European countries firmly integrated with Russia.
