The White House is a post -calling statement with Trump in other countries, after a phone call with Prime Minister Trump in India, the day after President Donald Trump threatened a new tariff on India on Monday. He said he emphasized the importance. Transfer to the US -made security device and to the two -country business relationship.
A remarkable change in American trade policy under Trump, which is becoming increasingly demanding access to the “mutual” market in both developed and developing countries, can remain exported to Indian top products in the United States. I have sex. In particular, it is vulnerable to pharmaceuticals, jewelry, jewelry, especially tariffs under the second Trump administration. During his first term, Trump targeted Indian steel and aluminum exports.
Aside from that, all items in the United States have a full risk of tariffs, which can reach the overall demand for domestic imports. Financial Times reports that US Finance Secretary Scott Bessent is planning to fully impose 2.5 % tariffs. However, Trump told reporters on Tuesday that he wanted a “much larger” tariff rate than 2.5 %.
In the case of being imposed, the United States is the largest trading partner in India, and in 2023, the interstant trade exceeds $ 117 billion, which may have a high level of tariffs on India. India is also vulnerable to changes in US trade policies because the US market is the largest export market in India for both products and services. The most important thing is that the United States is the only country where India has a trade surplus, and is an important source of US dollars.
Pharmacector: India’s largest vulnerability
Trade data between India and the United States in 2023 suggests that Indian tariff vulnerabilities may be in the final goods category. This has recorded the largest sector trade surplus of $ 26.8 billion with the United States. The final property category also contributes to 79.3 % of India’s overall trade surplus in India. In particular, India gained surplus of $ 33.8 billion with the United States in 2023.
In the final category, the pharmaceutical sector, which follows the jewel and jewelry sector, is the biggest trade segment that India enjoys important trade surplus. Pharmaceuticals consisted of up to 21.9 % of the $ 20 billion consumer -worth of $ 20 billion exported by India in 2023. The second and third spots.
“The new trade system may target a small number of high -value items, especially from pharmaceuticals, fisheries, and jewelry sector. Segments such as woven fabrics and wood pulp may be scrutinized, and in the last month’s report, the think tank survey and information systems of the developing country (RIS) will be used in the last month’s report. I say like.
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According to official trade data, the surplus of Indian commercial trade with the United States has increased from $ 16.64 billion in FY2014 to $ 353.2 billion in 2004. The largest export destination, India’s total export basket, has a 17.73 % share. In particular, more than 70 % of IT exports in India have come from the United States, especially in relation to the H-1B visa norms, and India has become vulnerable to US trade policy changes.
Why is China a bigger tariff goal than India?
On the first day of his inauguration, Trump, the Ministry of Commerce and the Ministry of Finance, the cause of the “large and sustainable” annual trade disorder in the United States in the product, and such a deficit “economic and national security”. Instructed to investigate the meaning of. A document titled American First Trade Policy announced by the White House.
According to US trade data, India has contributed to 30.2 % in 2023, that is, $ 317.7 billion in China, to $ 33.2 billion (3.2 %) of the US overall trade balance. For American product trade deficit. Thus, if the United States decides to see a mutual trade balance, the top trading partners that may be targeted are China, Mexico, and the European Union.
The Paprician of the National Economic Research Bureau (NBER) is a paper on importing election results between political polarization and increased trade exposure (2017), expanding imports of imports from China, which is an adult politics in the United States. He said he contributed to the transition to the right of the belief. The paper also noted that in the 2016 presidential election, the trade impact has increased the republican candidate’s voting share.
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The research paper explained that the Chinese trade shock, which was caused by the inflow of inexpensive Chinese products into the United States in 2000 and as a result, has led to a decrease in US manufacturing employment. 。
“In the early several decades, the manufacturing industry helped workers without university degrees to reach the middle class, but due to the sudden decrease in this sector, we have a low salary occupation. In the industry, which has been exposed to trade with China, the number of employment has increased and the employment has increased significantly during the wage service work. Is less. “
Why is tariffs so important for Trump’s politics?
Trump’s affinity for tariffs is before the 2024 US presidential election. During his first term, he began a tariff war with China, India, and other countries. He mainly appealed to his central voter base. The 2016 US election showed that Trump won 89 out of 100 counties affected by China’s import competition. Trump would not have won the election without support from voters in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. This is a research paper by the National Economic Research Bureau (NBER) based in the United States, which was unemployed in the manufacturing industry due to the import of China, and was shown in 2017.
The US election data in 2024 indicated that non -university -educated voters swayed mainly in supporting Trump. Of the university -free voters, 54 % supported Trump, and 44 % chose former Vice President Camara Harris. On the other hand, university graduates prefer Harris 57 % compared to Trump 41 %. As a result, Trump threatens many country tariffs and attracts the work of the United States.
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But unlike the last time, Trump seems to be more careful about tariffs. In his first week after resuming, Trump is a sudden gust of presidential orders to suppress immigrants, end their degree of citizenship, and withdraw from the Paris Climate Agreement and World Health Organization (WHO). I signed. Many of these orders are consistent with his promises in his election, but he continues to be one of his most consequential campaigns, that is, imposing tariffs on US trade partners. Not.
Experts believe that Trump was a failure to deal with China during his first term. Trump signed a “historical trade agreement” with China and promised China to purchase an additional $ 200 billion US exports by December 31, 2021. According to the Peterson International Economic Research Institute, China only purchased 58 % of US exports. We promised to buy based on the contract, but it was not enough to reach the import level before the trade war.
Nevertheless, his second phase of Trump began to work to achieve his political and economic goals, which suppress immigrants and attract the manufacturing. He announced the establishment of an external revenue service (ERS) to tax for imports in the United States. Although it is short -lived, Trump has imposed 25 % of Colombia in order to accept immigrants that have been deported from the United States and to send the world to a high price in records.
