ISLAMABAD, Pakistan – Opposition leader and Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) lawmaker Omar Ayub Khan on Thursday as he submitted the party’s charter of demands to the country’s National Assembly Speaker Ayaz Sadiq. , said: The long-standing impasse between the government and the country’s most popular political party appeared to finally be resolved.
However, just 24 hours later, former prime minister and PTI founder Imran Khan was sentenced by an accountability court to 14 years in prison for abuse of power and corruption.
The two countries engaged in several controversies late last year, including the release of imprisoned PTI leaders (which the party calls “political prisoners”) and the response to allegations of electoral fraud in last year’s controversial elections. Negotiations had begun on the issue that caused the issue.
So far, three rounds of talks have been held under the chairmanship of National Assembly Speaker Sadiq, and in the last meeting, PTI presented a charter of demands.
The government is expected to comply with these demands within seven days. But Khan’s conviction reignited the political turmoil of the past three years and reignited fears that Pakistan could be plunged into chaos again as the country faces a security and economic crisis.
Aasiya Riaz, co-director of the independent think tank Pakistan Institute for Legislative Development and Transparency (PILDAT), emphasized the importance of continued dialogue.
He told Al Jazeera: “We must move forward with talks aimed at a meaningful outcome for the country.”
“Both the establishment-backed government and the PTI may return to their respective tactics of pressure and incitement. This will lead to confusion and uncertainty, but will ultimately bring them to the negotiating table. I will have to go back,” Riaz added.
Once popular, now an outcast
Imran Khan was removed from office in April 2022 by a vote of no confidence in parliament. He claimed there was a conspiracy among Pakistan’s powerful military, political opponents and the United States to remove him from power.
The military, considered Pakistan’s most influential power broker, has directly ruled the country for nearly three of the 76 years since independence. No prime minister in Pakistan’s history has served a full term, but three out of four military dictators each ruled for nearly a decade.
Mr. Khan, once thought to have the backing of the military, came to power in August 2018 but has since lost support.
Both the United States and the military have denied his accusations, but his ouster prompted a major crackdown on the PTI, and as the military is euphemistically known in Pakistan, Mr. He led marches and protests.
The situation came to a head on May 9, 2023, when Khan was briefly detained in the Al-Qadir Trust case, a corruption case for which he was convicted on Friday.
His release within two days did little to quell the unrest as PTI supporters rampaged across the country, targeting public buildings, military offices and installations, including the army headquarters in Rawalpindi. It didn’t help.
Thousands of PTI members were arrested, more than 100 tried under military law, and more than 80 sentenced to prison terms ranging from three to 10 years. Khan is also charged with inciting rebellion and “terrorism” in connection with these events.
negotiation challenges
Despite setbacks such as Khan’s arrest in August 2023 and legal obstacles to PTI’s participation in elections, the party’s candidates won the highest number of seats in the February polls.
However, with Khan in prison, PTI leadership held several protests in Islamabad to pressure Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif’s government to release him.
In November, the PTI began a march to Islamabad, calling it a “last call.” The march was broken up by clashes with law enforcement, and PTI claimed at least 12 of its workers were killed, a figure the government denies.
In a series of written demands, PTI appears to be withdrawing its claims for reversal of the election results.
However, the party called on the government to form two separate investigation teams tasked with investigating the events of May 9, 2023 and November 26 last year (the day of the march to Islamabad). It also continues to call for the release of “political prisoners.”
PTI core member Abuzar Salman Niazi clarified the party’s position.
“We are not asking for an executive order to release people. We are asking for an end to judicial intervention. If bail is granted, they should be arrested in new cases immediately after. Not,” Niazi told Al Jazeera.
Niazi noted that the current demands are just the beginning, adding that negotiations will continue.
“The government has been given an opportunity to act on these soft demands. There are other demands to come, but these are still in their infancy. “We look forward to government action to initiate an investigation into the incident,” he added.
Government legal spokesperson Aqeel Malik also said he remained optimistic about negotiations progressing despite Khan’s conviction.
“Court proceedings and dialogue are another matter. We have seven days to respond to PTI’s request and the prime minister has already formed a team to assess the request,” Malik told Al Jazeera.
Reconciliation or stalemate?
Some analysts believe the PTI’s demands represent a fall from grace and give the government a chance at reconciliation.
Ahmed Ijaz, an Islamabad-based political analyst, said the PTI’s dismissal of complaints about the February 2024 elections could make negotiations easier.
“This allows the government to position itself as acting in the interest of stability,” Ijaz said.
Meanwhile, political commentator Fahad Hussain said PTI’s demands look “quite unrealistic” at this stage.
“The two commissions they are seeking are similar to indictments, and many related matters have already been challenged in court,” Hussain told Al Jazeera.
Government legal spokesperson Malik stressed the need to clarify PTI’s demands.
“For example, the PTI has said that political prisoners should be released, but it has never given a list of who this means. Those involved in the May 9 and November 26 incidents It seems like it’s open-ended, including people. So I think this is in the very early stages, but we have seven days to work on them,” he added.
“Positive development”
Over the past three years, Mr. Khan has repeatedly blamed the military, particularly Army Chief of Staff Syed Asim Munir, for the party’s plight.
Munir’s recent meeting with current PTI chairman Gohar Ali Khan (no relation to Imran Khan) in Peshawar has raised eyebrows, despite the military’s insistence that political negotiations are not within its jurisdiction. are.
PTI hailed the meeting as a “positive development” and claimed it had presented its demands to Munir. However, military officials said the talks focused solely on Khyber Pakhtunkhwa’s security.
PTI-ruled Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province, which borders Afghanistan, has witnessed a series of attacks, which Pakistan blames on militants taking refuge in Afghanistan.
But government officials who are part of the negotiating team slammed the talks with military commanders as being “politicized.”
Senator Irfan Siddiqui asserted at a press conference in Islamabad on Thursday that “no direct negotiations are taking place outside of the government’s negotiating team.”
However, Islamabad-based analyst Ijaz deemed the meeting an important one.
“Once the dialogue with the military begins, the case and conviction against Khan will become irrelevant,” he said.
The road ahead
But analysts warn that mistrust between the PTI, government and military could still derail negotiations.
As a result, the party will have no option but to resume its aggressive stance and go into agitation mode again, said PTI’s Niazi.
“What choice do we have other than to go back to the streets and protest? We are trying to negotiate keeping in mind the interests of the country and the people, but the responsibility lies with the government. They have to play a bigger role for the dialogue to be successful,” said the Lahore-based PTI leader.
But Hussain, who is based in Islamabad, said the only hope that could “substantially” change the situation in Pakistan would be a signal from Washington, D.C., where Donald Trump is scheduled to be sworn in as president on Monday. said.
“If Donald Trump’s administration intervenes, it may help the PTI. Otherwise, the party seems to have no choice,” he said.
