Recent developments suggest this tradition could be repeated in 2025, with whispers of a shift in the alliance involving Chief Minister Nitish Kumar.
Nitish Kumar’s political journey: back and forth
In January 2024, Nitish Kumar left the Mahagathbandhan (Grand Alliance) and returned to the NDA (National Democratic Alliance), shocking many. However, media reports hint that Nitish may reconsider his allegiance. His alleged grievances against the BJP have sparked rumors of a return to the grand alliance.
Meanwhile, the BJP-led NDA claimed that over a dozen Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) leaders were in talks with its members. Nitish’s silence on these reports has further fueled speculation, as Bihar has historically had such silence even before major political developments.
Signs of tension between JD(U) and BJP
Nitish’s recent visit to Delhi has raised eyebrows. Although he paid his respects to former Prime Minister Manmohan Singh’s family, he avoided meeting Bharatiya Janata Party leaders and also skipped an important meeting convened by Home Minister Amit Shah.
Adding to the tension, the Delhi unit of the BJP refused to allot seats to the JD(U) in the upcoming assembly elections. In response, JD(U) leaders Sanjay Jha and Lalan Singh announced plans to contest independently, hinting at growing friction between the alliances.
RJD is hoping for Nitish’s return.
Tejashwi Yadav-led RJD is closely monitoring the situation and remains optimistic about Nitish’s chances of return. The party made several attempts to reintegrate him, but were unsuccessful.
In February 2024, during the crucial trust vote, RJD’s efforts to secure Nitish’s support backfired and two MLAs Neelam Devi and Chetan Anand quit the party. Nevertheless, the RJD remains hopeful, especially as Nitish’s relationship with the BJP seems increasingly strained.
After Makar Sankranti: A turning point?
Many analysts believe that significant political developments could occur after Harmas (the inauspicious period before Makar Sankranti). If Nitish decides to part ways with the NDA, the opposition coalition Alliance of India is expected to gain more support, and Nitish may be able to form a government with support both inside and outside Parliament.
Such a move could challenge the Bharatiya Janata Party’s dominance in Bihar and have repercussions at the national level. However, the possibility of a split within the JD(U) cannot be ruled out as key figures like Sanjay Jha and Lalan Singh seem to be leaning toward the Bharatiya Janata Party.
Another possibility is that Nitish may dissolve the state assembly and call mid-term elections, further complicating the political scenario.
Nitish Kumar’s future: End of an era?
Speculations are rife regarding Nitish Kumar’s retirement. He declared the 2020 elections as the “last elections” and reiterated in 2024 that the 2025 elections would be held under the leadership of Tejashwi Yadav.
Amid these rumors, leaders across party lines, including Bharatiya Janata Party’s Giriraj Singh, RJD chief Tejashwi Yadav and JD(U)’s Sanjay Jha, conferred the Bharat Ratna on Nitish. There are voices calling for this.
If Nitish does indeed intend to withdraw from active politics, 2025 could mark the end of Bihar’s political era. For now, all eyes are on the post-Karmas developments that may reveal the next chapter of Bihar’s dynamic political story.
Bihar awaits the next political change, and the coming weeks will be crucial in shaping the state’s governance and alliances for the future.
