A statement repeated in various forms by Mohammad Al Gergawi, the UAE’s Minister of Cabinet Affairs, in a year in which incumbent politicians around the world were voted out of office or forcibly removed from power. stood out. The role of the government is to design a future that gives people hope. ” As we look to 2025, political leaders should take this message to heart and shift their focus from continued crisis management to developing a bold and hopeful agenda.
The global wave of anti-incumbency has been alarming. In March, Senegal’s President Macky Sall unsuccessfully tried to postpone the presidential election and was decisively defeated. In June, the African National Congress, which had ruled South Africa since the end of apartheid, lost its majority for the first time in 30 years, forcing the party to form a coalition government. In the same month, Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) also lost its parliamentary majority.
This trend continued throughout the summer and fall. Labor won a landslide victory in the UK general election in July, ending 14 years of Conservative Party rule. In October, Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) fell below a majority for the first time since 2009. And early last month, Michel Barnier became the first French prime minister to be removed by a vote of no confidence since 1962. Days later, German Prime Minister Olaf Scholz was rejected in a vote of confidence, paving the way for an early election, while Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau fired his finance minister. plunged his country into political uncertainty.
Other existing leaders were ousted by popular uprisings. In August, Bangladeshi Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina fled the country in a military helicopter after protesters attacked her official residence. And, of course, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad was forced to flee to Russia after his regime collapsed early last month.
Why do incumbents lose? One possible explanation is social media. Research shows that increased access to the internet often erodes trust in government and deepens political polarization. In the United States, for example, Democratic-leaning and Republican-leaning voters have become increasingly polarized, with each side becoming more entrenched as partisans.
Social media fosters connections between people who consume similar content, reinforcing their worldviews and amplifying the psychological effect known as “conformity.” Social media algorithms act as powerful megaphones for simple, emotionally charged messages, making these platforms fertile ground for conspiracy theories and fear-mongering.
However, while early evidence suggests that social media is strengthening support for far-right populists, recent election results show that this is not necessarily enough to take them to power. In Mexico, Spain, Greece, Ireland, the United Kingdom, Japan, and South Africa, incumbents and other mainstream parties won, albeit significantly weakened.
Therefore, one clear lesson from this historic election year is that governments must learn how to use social media more effectively. A good place to start is by engaging directly with your constituents’ concerns. Early last year, two of Keir Starmer’s advisers visited the town of Grimsby in north-east England and asked residents to describe the government in one word. The response they received mirrors what I’ve heard in many other countries. “irrelevant”, “authoritarian”, “aloof”, “elitist”, “unapproachable”, “selfish”, “unambitious”, “untrustworthy”, “joke”.
Another important point is that to restore trust, leaders need to focus on economic growth and people’s empowerment. A comprehensive 2022 study of the political economy of populism highlights strong evidence that economic conditions, such as rising unemployment and cuts to social spending, have a significant impact on how people view their government.
This helps explain why voters in Spain and Greece in 2023 and Ireland last year chose to re-elect incumbent leaders, while voters in France rejected the ruling party. Spain’s economic growth rate in 2022 was 5.7%, and Greece’s 6.2%. By contrast, Germany’s economy is expected to contract by 0.3% in 2023 and 0.1% in 2024, with early elections scheduled after the government was defeated in a vote of no confidence in parliament. . France is faring slightly better, with GDP expected to grow by 1.1% this year, after a projected 0.9% growth in 2023.
In addition to promoting short-term economic growth, political leaders must also consider the future they provide for their people. Too many politicians and policymakers’ plans are limited to the annual budget cycle and focus primarily on cuts. Meanwhile, voters plagued by rising costs of living, post-pandemic austerity and a widespread sense of losing control of their lives need leaders who can give them reason for hope.
Don’t let budget constraints be an excuse for not envisioning a better future. Some of the boldest government initiatives were devised during times of economic hardship. Prominent examples include US President Franklin D. Roosevelt’s New Deal in the 1930s, Britain’s postwar welfare state, Dubai’s infrastructure boom from 1958 onwards, and Singapore’s rapid development from 1959 onwards.
Political leaders must draw inspiration from these bold plans to more ambitiously address the root causes of public discontent. The good news is that every country and community has creative talent in both the private and public sectors whose work requires them to think ahead and plan for the future. Leaders need to identify and reach out to such visionaries, who rarely participate in policy discussions, to leverage their expertise.
A politics of hope is essential to restoring faith in democratic institutions. In Grimsby, he said local residents were desperate for politics that was “realistic”, “meaningful”, “passionate”, “hopeful” and “empowering”. A government that can realize these aspirations will be worthy of the people’s trust. — Project Syndicate’s Naigai Woods is Dean of the Blavatnik School of Government at the University of Oxford.
The global wave of anti-incumbency has been alarming. In March, Senegal’s President Macky Sall unsuccessfully tried to postpone the presidential election and was decisively defeated. In June, the African National Congress, which had ruled South Africa since the end of apartheid, lost its majority for the first time in 30 years, forcing the party to form a coalition government. In the same month, Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) also lost its parliamentary majority.
This trend continued throughout the summer and fall. Labor won a landslide victory in the UK general election in July, ending 14 years of Conservative Party rule. In October, Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) fell below a majority for the first time since 2009. And early last month, Michel Barnier became the first French prime minister to be removed by a vote of no confidence since 1962. Days later, German Prime Minister Olaf Scholz was rejected in a vote of confidence, paving the way for an early election, while Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau fired his finance minister. plunged his country into political uncertainty.
Other existing leaders were ousted by popular uprisings. In August, Bangladeshi Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina fled the country in a military helicopter after protesters attacked her official residence. And, of course, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad was forced to flee to Russia after his regime collapsed early last month.
Why do incumbents lose? One possible explanation is social media. Research shows that increased access to the internet often erodes trust in government and deepens political polarization. In the United States, for example, Democratic-leaning and Republican-leaning voters have become increasingly polarized, with each side becoming more entrenched as partisans.
Social media fosters connections between people who consume similar content, reinforcing their worldviews and amplifying the psychological effect known as “conformity.” Social media algorithms act as powerful megaphones for simple, emotionally charged messages, making these platforms fertile ground for conspiracy theories and fear-mongering.
However, while early evidence suggests that social media is strengthening support for far-right populists, recent election results show that this is not necessarily enough to take them to power. In Mexico, Spain, Greece, Ireland, the United Kingdom, Japan, and South Africa, incumbents and other mainstream parties won, albeit significantly weakened.
Therefore, one clear lesson from this historic election year is that governments must learn how to use social media more effectively. A good place to start is by engaging directly with your constituents’ concerns. Early last year, two of Keir Starmer’s advisers visited the town of Grimsby in north-east England and asked residents to describe the government in one word. The response they received mirrors what I’ve heard in many other countries. “irrelevant”, “authoritarian”, “aloof”, “elitist”, “unapproachable”, “selfish”, “unambitious”, “untrustworthy”, “joke”.
Another important point is that to restore trust, leaders need to focus on economic growth and people’s empowerment. A comprehensive 2022 study of the political economy of populism highlights strong evidence that economic conditions, such as rising unemployment and cuts to social spending, have a significant impact on how people view their government.
This helps explain why voters in Spain and Greece in 2023 and Ireland last year chose to re-elect incumbent leaders, while voters in France rejected the ruling party. Spain’s economic growth rate in 2022 was 5.7%, and Greece’s 6.2%. By contrast, Germany’s economy is expected to contract by 0.3% in 2023 and 0.1% in 2024, with early elections scheduled after the government was defeated in a vote of no confidence in parliament. . France is faring slightly better, with GDP expected to grow by 1.1% this year, after a projected 0.9% growth in 2023.
In addition to promoting short-term economic growth, political leaders must also consider the future they provide for their people. Too many politicians and policymakers’ plans are limited to the annual budget cycle and focus primarily on cuts. Meanwhile, voters plagued by rising costs of living, post-pandemic austerity and a widespread sense of losing control of their lives need leaders who can give them reason for hope.
Don’t let budget constraints be an excuse for not envisioning a better future. Some of the boldest government initiatives were devised during times of economic hardship. Prominent examples include US President Franklin D. Roosevelt’s New Deal in the 1930s, Britain’s postwar welfare state, Dubai’s infrastructure boom from 1958 onwards, and Singapore’s rapid development from 1959 onwards.
Political leaders must draw inspiration from these bold plans to more ambitiously address the root causes of public discontent. The good news is that every country and community has creative talent in both the private and public sectors whose work requires them to think ahead and plan for the future. Leaders need to identify and reach out to such visionaries, who rarely participate in policy discussions, to leverage their expertise.
A politics of hope is essential to restoring faith in democratic institutions. In Grimsby, he said local residents were desperate for politics that was “realistic”, “meaningful”, “passionate”, “hopeful” and “empowering”. A government that can realize these aspirations will be worthy of the people’s trust. — Project Syndicate’s Naigai Woods is Dean of the Blavatnik School of Government at the University of Oxford.
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