On the African continent, many experts say that strengthening democracy will be the key to economic growth in 2025.
In Mozambique, for example, political observers fear that protests against the country’s ruling Frelimo party, which is accused of rigging October’s presidential election in a bid to extend its 49-year rule, will continue into the new year. There is.
Supporters of popular opposition leader Venancio Mondlane have filed a complaint with the Constitutional Court, demanding talks with Frelimo, which has ruled Mozambique since independence from Portugal in 1975.
Adriano Nubunga, director of the Center for Democracy and Human Rights in Mozambique’s capital Maputo, said: “This is supposed to be a dialogue on the basic issues of a fair electoral system, but the government is not taking it seriously.”
Democracy’s resilience: Reason for hope
Serwa Prempeh, a senior researcher in the Economic and Social Program at the African Policy Research Institute (APRI), said the lack of democratic norms and opaque elections will continue to be a concern.
Tunisia and Mauritania have taken steps toward democracy, but elections in both countries were marked by significant fraud.
Tensions flared in Tunisia in September after the electoral commission rejected a court ruling to reinstate three candidates to the October vote, citing irregularities in their filings.
At least three people were killed in Mauritania in July when security forces clashed with demonstrators rallying against the re-election of President Mohamed Ould Ghazouani. His main rival, anti-slavery activist Bilam der Abeid, rejected the results and said they had been falsified.
Prempeh said incidents of this nature will continue into 2025 unless countries strengthen their systems to improve the integrity and quality of elections, transparency and multiparty systems.
“Overall, progress is being made and these areas of democratic resilience are a source of hope,” she said.
There will also be a number of elections in 2024, including peaceful transitions from dominant parties to multiparty systems in South Africa and Botswana, where opposition parties have gained strength, says South African analyst Daniel. Silke told DW. Silke said he expects this trend to continue into 2025.
In South Africa, the continent’s largest developed country, a coalition government has been formed between the opposition Democratic Alliance (DA) and the ruling African National Congress after the ANC lost the majority it had enjoyed since the first post-apartheid elections. As a result, the stakes are high. , 1994.
“The National Accord Government is under pressure and must show results” ahead of local elections scheduled for 2026, Silke said.
“Strengthening the system”
Creating jobs and revitalizing South Africa’s struggling economy will be key to the coalition’s political success in 2025.
The new government’s reform efforts have slightly improved growth prospects, with forecasts for 2025 ranging from 1.5% (International Monetary Fund) to 2.6% (Economist Intelligence Unit).
South African President Cyril Ramaphosa aims to use his country’s G20 Presidency, which began on December 1, to not only represent its national interests, but also position South Africa as a voice for the entire continent and the Global South. There is.
One platform for an agreement will be the G20 summit scheduled for November 2025 in Johannesburg, which will be attended by the leaders of the 19 member states and representatives of the EU and AU.
East Africa is the fastest growing region on the continent, with GDP growth expected to rise to 5.7% in 2025 from an estimated 4.9% in 2024, according to the African Development Bank (AfDB).
Given global geopolitical risk factors, pressure on African governments will increase from the United States, China, Russia and other countries under the incoming Trump administration, Silke said.
“The Continental Free Trade Agreement (AGOA) could take center stage as it becomes important for African countries to strengthen intra-African trade in the face of global headwinds.”
Despite these concerns, Silke said Africa’s fundamentals remain strong and the opportunities for the continent’s markets are significant.
Mr Prempeh said fiscal pressures were increasing in many African countries. This means that already shrunken budgets remain fragile, and currency fluctuations, mismanagement and rising interest payments are driving up unsustainable levels of debt in countries such as Ghana, Zambia and Nigeria.
“Moving forward in 2025 will require strengthening institutions and adopting sound economic management and governance practices,” Prempeh said.
increasing instability
Regional crises impede development. Millions of people have been forced from their homes by war, armed conflict and extreme weather events.
According to a report by the Internal Displacement Monitoring Center (IDMC), approximately 35 million Africans were living as refugees or displaced persons in their home countries at the end of 2024.
Approximately 32.5 million people have fled violence and armed conflict. IDMC revealed that approximately 80% of Africa’s internally displaced persons are concentrated in just five countries: Sudan, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Ethiopia, Nigeria and Somalia.
The number of refugees will continue to rise unless governments and their partners increase efforts, the report says.
Mr Premekh said there remained significant political setbacks in West Africa and the Sahel, with coups and military regimes in Niger, Chad, Burkina Faso, Guinea and Mali threatening to undermine democratic progress. Terrorism will continue to cast a shadow over regional security and future elections.
Meanwhile, Gabon has seen positive developments, with General Brice Origi Nguema seizing power in 2023 and replacing long-term ruler Bongo. Following a successful constitutional reform election, Gabon is on the path to a civil and democratic government, provided the presidential elections in August are free and fair.
In neighboring Cameroon, 91-year-old Paul Biya has ruled for 41 years and plans to run again in 2025, a sign of continued economic fragility, Prempeh said.
And this trend is not unique to Cameroon, he said: “In countries like Uganda and Rwanda, powerful politicians are also extending their terms of office while citizens’ space is shrinking.” .
Editor: Keith Walker
