Republicans retained their House majority in November with one of the narrowest margins in the country’s history (even smaller than the current Congress), an outcome that will put them on another tightrope for the next two years. The drama begins next week as the party attempts to elect a new chairman on the first day of the new session, with new grievances against the leadership setting the stage for an unpredictable vote.
Republicans won 220 seats and Democrats won 215. One of the scheduled vacancies – that of former Rep. Matt Gaetz, who was re-elected but said he would not serve – will reduce Republicans to 219 seats when Congress reconvenes on January 3. I will do it. Resignation of Congressman scheduled to join the Trump administration – Representative of the House of Representatives. Elise Stefanik and Mike Walz plan to temporarily reduce the number of Republicans to 217 in late January before a special election is held. President-elect Donald Trump will begin his second term on January 20th.
Republicans will have full control of Congress and the White House, but the razor-thin cushion in the House means a small number of Republican defectors could stick to their leaders’ or their own terms and trip up the Republican agenda. means. As the past two years have shown, this also means that any continued bad luck for the Republican Party, such as declining health or a spate of resignations, could eat into its profit margins.
“We know how to work with a small number of people. That’s our practice now,” House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-Louisiana) told reporters earlier this month. “This is a team effort. It’s a collective effort and we all have to row in the same direction.”
In extreme cases, Republicans could surrender their majority through attrition before the next election, as happened in 1931 when the Republican Party lost its two-seat majority midway through then-President Herbert Hoover’s term. It is.
Strictly calculated, Republicans may only be able to issue a single “no” vote during the early months of Trump’s presidency, a period marked by frequent intraparty brawls and ambitious tax and legislative proposals. This poses a difficult challenge for party leaders at the conference, where they are trying to pass a bill. immigration agenda.
“I don’t think there’s any reason to believe that Republicans are completely in agreement on many issues,” said Andy Ballard, an assistant professor of political science at Florida State University.
The first test of majority unity will come when the House of Commons elects a speaker (Mr Johnson is currently up for re-election) and passes proposed rules. Both require a majority vote.
In early 2023, when Republicans held 222 seats to Democrats’ 212, the House lost four votes to elect speaker after some hardline Republicans opposed Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.). It took several days and 15 votes. In exchange for the resistance’s support, Mr. McCarthy was forced to make concessions, including new rules that would give any single lawmaker the power to force a vote to remove the Speaker. Critics attacked McCarthy again later that year, and Gaetz, joined by Democrats, plotted to remove him.
Prime Minister Boris Johnson now faces his own challenge of retaining the Speakership after a bitter battle earlier this month over the end-of-year government funding bill. Rep. Thomas Massie (R-Ky.) has said he will not support Johnson, and other House Republicans have said they would probably consider other candidates. Rep. Victoria Spartz (R-Ind.) said she would stop caucusing with Republicans “until we see Republican leadership in Congress in control.”
“The first few days of this new administration are going to be very close, so it’s important to stay calm and stay present,” House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) said on MSNBC.
The experience of the past two years shows how precarious minorities can be. Republicans started 2023 with a 10-seat lead in the House, but their majority briefly shrunk to four seats this spring, only to widen again once the seats were filled. In the end, Republicans won an eight-seat advantage, 219-211.
A thin majority leads to a lot of guessing. Members of Congress regularly miss voting for a variety of reasons, including illness, travel, and other obligations.
Republicans initially unsuccessfully tried to impeach Department of Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas in February over President Biden’s immigration record.
Rep. Al Green, D-Texas, who is recovering from emergency abdominal surgery, surprised Republicans by coming to vote in a sore wheelchair and wearing hospital-issue non-slip socks. He cast the final no vote to sink the effort. A week later, Republicans successfully impeached Mayorkas after House Minority Leader Steve Scalise (R-Louisiana) returned to the Hill after completing cancer treatment.
More resignations and health issues are expected from both parties this Congress.
“Republicans certainly have a calculus problem, but they shouldn’t lose their majority,” said Erin Covey, an analyst with the nonpartisan Cook Political Report, who could even temporarily flip the chamber. pointed out that multiple vacancies need to occur in a short period of time. .
Katy Stech Ferek contributed to this article.
Email Xavier Martinez at xavier.martinez@wsj.com.
