Russia this week claimed it had captured the resource-rich town of Krahov in eastern Ukraine as its forces advance in the region, nearly three years after the start of the war.
Russian forces continue to make slow advances in eastern Ukraine, even as Ukraine launches a new offensive in Kursk, Russia, which has shaken up the population. This war of attrition appears to be demoralizing the Ukrainian military, which faces manpower shortages in the face of relentless attacks from Russia.
Alarming new figures now show the rapidly escalating costs of war on both sides in Europe’s biggest conflict since World War II. According to experts, Russia will acquire Ukrainian territory twice the size of Mauritius in 2024. But how many soldiers were lost in the process?
How much territory will Russia gain from Ukraine in 2024?
Russian forces captured 4,168 square kilometers (1,609 square miles) of Ukrainian land in 2024, according to geolocation evidence collected by the Washington, DC-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
This is twice the area of Mauritius, an Indian Ocean country, and five times the area of New York City.
According to ISW, the territory acquired by Russia in 2024 consists primarily of Ukrainian fields and small settlements, with the exception of territory regained from Ukraine in Kursk.
In addition, Russia has acquired four medium-sized settlements: Avdiivka, Seridov, Vledal and Krahov, ISW reported.
How many soldiers has Russia lost? What Ukraine says
As of December 30, 2024, 427,000 Russian soldiers have been killed or wounded in the 2024 war, according to General Oleksandr Shirsky, commander-in-chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
In a statement released on January 2, Ukraine’s Ministry of Defense put Russia’s losses last year at 430,790.
Based on recent figures, Russia’s losses in 2024 will reach an average of 1,180 losses per day, or approximately 103 losses per increased square kilometer.
According to Ukraine, Russian losses increased towards the end of the year. According to the Ministry of Defense, the highest losses were in November with 45,720 cases and December with 48,670 cases. It is unclear how many of these Russian soldiers were killed and how many were wounded and removed from the battlefield.
How many soldiers did Russia lose? What others say
According to the independent Russian website Mediazona, at least 31,481 Russian soldiers have been confirmed dead between January 1, 2024 and December 17, 2024.
Mediazona uses open source research to compile the names of deceased Russian soldiers and verifies information through obituaries, posts by relatives, statements from local authorities and other public reports.
Mediazona’s website said the 2024 figures were a “preliminary conclusion” and said: This cannot yet be conclusively proven as casualty data is released with considerable delay. ”
Al Jazeera has not been able to independently verify these figures.
“It looks like the number of Russian deaths is probably in the 100,000-plus (range),” Timothy Ashe, associate research fellow in the Russia and Eurasia Program at London-based think tank Chatham House, told Al Jazeera. Ta.
However, in an interview with French news agency Le Monde published on December 17, Ukrainian General Sirsky said that the number of Russian troops stationed in Ukraine also seems to be constantly increasing.
Oleg Ignatov, a senior analyst at Crisis Group, said comments like Silsky’s raise the question: How can Russian military strength in Ukraine increase when Moscow has suffered such devastating losses? I asked him if he would do so.
“We don’t know (why) the Russian recruitment model is better or if there are fewer (Russian) casualties (as claimed),” he said.
Why is it so difficult to confirm the death toll?
This is in part because these numbers wield immense propaganda value for both sides.
“There is a war of narratives on both sides. Both sides use numbers to prove success on the ground and try to undermine the other side. These narratives are part of the war,” Ignatov told Al Jazeera. told.
On December 8, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy announced in a telegram that 43,000 Ukrainian soldiers have died on the battlefield since the war began in February 2022. The last time the president announced the death toll of Ukrainian soldiers was in February 2024. He said 31,000 Ukrainian soldiers were killed. This means that 12,000 Ukrainian soldiers died on the battlefield in about 10 months in 2024.
However, neither Russia nor Ukraine regularly publish statistics on the number of soldiers lost in the war.
Marina Miron, a researcher at King’s College’s School of War Studies in London, told Al Jazeera in October that this was because they wanted to avoid giving the other side any insight into how effective their military operations were.
This is not an uncommon strategy in wartime; for example, during World War II, each side underreported its own casualties by half and exaggerated enemy casualties by two to three times. , Miron said.
There are other factors as well. A soldier’s death is confirmed only after his body is discovered, after which the relevant Ministry of Defense sends a death notice to his family.
Miron told Al Jazeera in October that payments to families could be avoided if the government did not officially acknowledge the soldiers’ deaths.
Will the number of Russian deaths be recorded?
Regardless of exactly how many Russian soldiers lost their lives in the war, experts agree that Russia’s casualties will be a record number, especially in 2024, the highest since World War II. Therefore, we conclude. An estimated 8.7 million Soviet military personnel were killed during World War II, far more than any other country. Of the 15 Soviet republics, Russia lost the most soldiers, an estimated 6.7 million.
The Soviet Union suffered approximately 15,000 casualties during the 10-year-long Soviet-Afghan War. The US military lost 58,220 soldiers during the 20-year Vietnam War.
“Russia’s losses in Ukraine are likely to be many times this,” Ash said.
“The impact on Russian society will be felt for years to come. Think of the human costs, and the medical costs of that, and the economic costs of the workforce,” he said. Ash added that this “partly explains Russia’s current tight labor market and high wage-price inflation.”
“Russia’s demographics were already terrible, but this war has made them even worse.”
What will the territorial gains be in 2024? Were they significant?
Experts say the territory gained by Russia and Ukraine has limited strategic importance for both countries.
“Ukraine can survive and prosper economically without the land currently occupied by Russia, but what is important is the security of all of Ukraine. That is why peace terms are so important for Ukraine. ”Ashe said.
“For Russia, the occupied lands have little positive economic and strategic impact,” he added.
In fact, Asch argued that the occupied Ukrainian territory “will be a huge burden on the Russian economy, which is trying to finance its reconstruction.”
“And now we’re at a point where the Russian economy is starved of resources because of sanctions,” he said.
Ignatov added that the accession of territory by either side is not at the heart of the war. Rather, “this is a war of attrition. It’s the casualties, the supplies, the infrastructure that counts.”
He said neither side “seems interested in a ceasefire for now.” Ignatov suggested that Russia could face difficulties in 2025 amid mounting losses in human capital. “We don’t know how sustainable Russia’s recruitment model is, and we don’t know whether Russia will have to mobilize this year.”