Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has been facing a political storm even before his government ratified a ceasefire agreement with Hamas. The deal, brokered by the United States, Qatar and Egypt, promises a possible end to the 15-month conflict but has already sparked a violent revolt within Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s fragile coalition. His far-right partners, whose support is vital to his government’s survival, have threatened to pull out unless the ceasefire agreement is called off. The internal revolt has left Netanyahu in an increasingly precarious position and could put his leadership in jeopardy even before a deal is reached.
Far-right defections threaten Netanyahu’s majority
Political rifts within Netanyahu’s government surfaced shortly after the ceasefire agreement was announced. Itamar Ben Gvir, Israel’s Minister of State Security and leader of the far-right Jewish Power party, has declared that his party will leave the coalition government if the ceasefire agreement is approved by the cabinet. Netanyahu’s party controls just six seats in Israel’s 120-seat parliament, but the defection will sharply reduce his parliamentary majority from a comfortable 68 to 62. Ben Gvir described the ceasefire as Israel’s “surrender” to Hamas, citing deep ideological rifts within Prime Minister Netanyahu’s coalition.
Bezalel Smotrich, leader of the Religious Zionist Party, which holds seven seats, also threatened to leave the coalition if Prime Minister Netanyahu moves beyond the first phase of the ceasefire. This phase calls for a six-week cease-fire, during which Hamas is expected to release 33 Israeli hostages in exchange for hundreds of Palestinian prisoners, and Israeli forces will withdraw from populated areas in Gaza. It’s planned. But Smotrich and Ben Gvir want the war to continue until Hamas is completely eradicated and Israeli military control extends to the Gaza Strip. Their hardline stance is at odds with the ceasefire’s broader goal of de-escalation.
Prime Minister Netanyahu’s precarious political survival
Prime Minister Netanyahu now faces a difficult choice. Either maintain political survival by placating far-right allies and prolonging the war, or pursue a ceasefire and risk alienating these important partners. The situation is particularly difficult given that Prime Minister Netanyahu is already embroiled in a corruption trial, making his position even more complicated. As The New York Times reports, “elections are stories,” and Prime Minister Netanyahu’s political future depends on whether he can navigate the delicate balance between securing a ceasefire and maintaining a coalition government. There is a possibility that it depends on.
Analysts have suggested that Netanyahu may ultimately prioritize broader geopolitical opportunities over domestic political stability. Moshe Krughaft, a former Netanyahu strategic adviser, speculated that the prime minister may opt for a diplomatic solution that could pave the way for improved relations with Saudi Arabia. Prime Minister Netanyahu could use the ceasefire as a springboard to boost Israel’s standing in the region, especially with support from the United States. “It is increasingly likely that Mr. Netanyahu will choose the election with Saudi Arabia over Smotrich and continue the war,” Krughaft told the New York Times.
Geopolitical bets: Prime Minister Netanyahu’s relationship with Trump and Saudi Arabia
Beyond domestic politics, Netanyahu is also balancing his relationship with the incoming Trump administration. The United States has strongly supported Israel throughout the conflict, and President-elect Donald Trump is eager to end the war. For Netanyahu, working with President Trump could provide more than just military support and create opportunities for a broader peace agreement, including formal diplomatic relations with Saudi Arabia. If Netanyahu were able to broker such a deal, it would not only enhance his legacy but also strengthen Israel’s position vis-à-vis regional adversaries like Iran.
As highlighted by The New York Times, the ceasefire agreement being considered by Prime Minister Netanyahu is strikingly similar to one proposed by President Biden in early 2024. Alignment with U.S. policy could give Netanyahu the international support he needs to weather the storm of domestic opposition. However, the Prime Minister’s ability to overcome these conflicting pressures will be extremely important. If Prime Minister Netanyahu chooses to pursue a ceasefire, it may offer a path to greater diplomatic success, but it could also signal the dissolution of his political coalition.
take a narrow path
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is currently delaying a cabinet vote on ratifying the ceasefire, citing a “last-minute conflict” with Hamas. But this delay may only intensify the political crisis. His far-right partners have made it clear that they will not tolerate a ceasefire, especially if it leads to a permanent one. Ben Gvir and Smotrich have increasingly spoken out against any deal that might imply concessions to Hamas.
For now, Prime Minister Netanyahu’s political survival may depend on how long he can deal with infighting within his coalition government. Although he is unlikely to lose power anytime soon, the continued defection of his far-right partners could leave him vulnerable in the long term. The first phase of the ceasefire, which includes a temporary ceasefire and the release of hostages, is expected to begin within the next few days. Even if Netanyahu’s government survives this stage, the decision in the second stage – whether to make the ceasefire permanent – could be his undoing.
Prime Minister Netanyahu’s political calculation: peace or power?
At the heart of Netanyahu’s dilemma is how to balance political power with national security goals. If Prime Minister Netanyahu presses ahead with a ceasefire, he risks losing the support of key allies in his government and leading to the collapse of his coalition government. But refusing to support a ceasefire could isolate Netanyahu from the international community and push him further into the hands of far-right partners who are pushing for a relentless military campaign in Gaza.
Prime Minister Netanyahu’s future is becoming increasingly uncertain. As the New York Times suggests, Prime Minister Netanyahu will abandon the Phase 2 ceasefire agreement if Hamas does not comply, or if he decides that continuing the war is the only way to preserve the coalition. may choose to do so. But there is also a growing perception that Netanyahu may prioritize broader regional peace opportunities, such as the possibility of normalizing relations with Saudi Arabia, over the demands of his hardline partners.
For Prime Minister Netanyahu, the choice is tough, and the consequences are severe. Whether he chooses to maintain his far-right alliance or embrace a potential diplomatic breakthrough will shape not only the future of the ceasefire but also the trajectory of his political career. The coming weeks will be crucial in determining whether Prime Minister Netanyahu is able to survive this tumultuous moment or whether the pressure proves too much for him to handle.
