Detailed analysis
February 13, 2025
Global production of oil and other liquids in 2025 and 2026 is projected to grow more than OPEC+ countries in the Short-Term Energy Outlook (SEO) in February. In 2024, the global oil and other liquid supply will increase by approximately 0.6 million barrels per day (b/d), up 1.9 million b/d in 2025 and 1.6 million b/d in 2026. It’s there. Four countries in the Americas (US, Guyana, Canada and Brazil) are hampering this growth. Due to continuous production control among OPEC+ countries, the group’s production is projected to increase by 0.1 million b/d in 2025 and 0.6 million b/d in 2026.
Global oil liquid production outside of OPEC+ increased by 1.8 million b/d in 2024, 1.8 million b/d in 2025 and 10 million b/d in 2026. Production is projected to increase in Canada at 0.5 million b/d from 2024 to 2026, at 0.3 million b/d in Guyana and at 0.3 million b/d in Brazil. The majority of forecast growth comes from the US, with production expected to increase by 1.1 million b/d over the same period.
The United States continues to produce more crude oil and petroleum liquids than any other country. US crude oil production rose to 13.2 million b/d in 2024 in 2024, as efficiency was improved with fewer rigs. US oil liquid production is expected to increase by 2025 by 0.6 million b/d. In 2026, it was 0.5 million b/d. Prediction for 2026. Furthermore, growth of Permian offset contraction in other regions.
In 2024, Canada was the fourth largest oil producer, tracking only the US, Saudi Arabia and Russia. It is projected to grow at 0.3 million b/d in Canada in 2025 and 0.2 million b/d in 2024. Expansion of the Trans Mountain Pipeline to transport oil to Canada’s west coast for access to export markets from Landlocked Alberta.
Brazilian producers are hoping to add new floating production storage and off-road (FPSO) units to existing fields in the Santos Basin. The Alexandre de Gusmão will be the fifth FPSO installed in the Mero field and will begin production in mid-2025. Additionally, in 2025, FPSOS Almirante Tamandaré and P-78 in the Buzios sector in the Santos Basin are scheduled to begin operation. These new projects are projected to increase Brazil’s oil liquid production by 0.1 million b/d in 2025 and 0.2 million b/d in 2026.
We expect Guyana’s oil liquid production to increase by 20 million b/d in 2025 and 0.1 million b/d in 2026. The development of the Stabroek block includes three projects: Yellowtail, Uaru and Whiptail. The project is expected to reach approximately 1.3 million b/d by the end of 2027 with combined production capacity.
Production from OPEC+ members accounted for 47% (35.7 million b/d) of global crude oil production in 2024. OPEC+ crude oil production is projected to increase by 0.1 million b/d in 2025. The timeline was agreed at a meeting held in December 2024. Furthermore, the voluntary reduction of 2.2 million b/d announced in November 2023 will be extended until the end of March 2025 and gradually phased out by the end of September 2026. The additional voluntary production cut of 1.65 million b/d announced in April 2023 has been extended until the end of December 2026.
Compared to 53% in 2016 when the expansion group was first formed, it is expected that OPEC+ share of global oil production will decline by 1 percentage point in 2025 and 2026. Masu. OPEC’s surplus crude oil production capacity was 4.6 million b/d in 2024, and 10 million b/d (2.3 million b/d) since 2019.
Saudi Arabia is the largest oil producer in OPEC, accounting for about a third of the group’s total supply. In 2024, Saudi Arabia produced 9.0 million b/d compared to 2022, producing 13% (1.4 million b/d).
Among OPEC+ members, Russia was the largest producer of crude oil in 2024, with an average of 9.2 million b/d. After Russia and Saudi Arabia, the largest producers were Iraq (4.4 million b/d), the United Arab Emirates (2.9 million b/d), and Kuwait (2.5 million b/d).
Key Contributors: Kenya Shot
