North Korea has built missile capabilities to attack the US mainland, threatening to overwhelm the US defense, and is bolstering fears of strategic change in the power balance on the South Korean Peninsula.
In a statement this month before the US Senate Armed Forces Committee, General Gregory Guillott, US Northern Command (USNORTHCOM) and North American Aerospace Defense Command (NORAD) have announced that North Korea’s intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) have been He said he is improving his ability. The threat to the US mainland is likely to have the latest solid propellant Hwasong-19 missiles deliver nuclear payloads to targets in North America.
The solid fuel design of the new missile significantly reduces launch preparation time and complicates preemptive detection and intercept efforts.
Guillot warned that a rapid shift from North Korea’s missile development to continuous production could quickly outperform US ballistic missile defense, especially if North Korea expands its arsenal beyond current estimates. .
He also highlighted the risks of technology exchanges between North Korea and Russia, and the Quid Pro Quo arrangement that could bolster the former’s advanced strategic weapons programme.
These developments and broader strategic cooperation between US enemies raise the possibility of simultaneous multi-territories threats to the US homeland, further highlighting existing missile defense systems.
In response, Gilott has been urgently involved in next-generation missile defense, including timely deployment of next-generation interceptors (NGIs) and improving domain recognition technology to counter increasingly sophisticated enemy missile threats. emphasized the need for
In a November 2024 article on 38 North, Van Van Depen said that North Korea’s Hawasson-19 ICBM represents a major advance in the country’s strategic missile capabilities, possibly with multiple independent targetable re-entries It is likely that they have incorporated a Vehicle (MIRV) system.
Van Diepen said that compared to the Hwasong-18, the larger solid fuel, Hwasong-19, improved its boosting ability to increase payload capacity without extending range, as previous ICBMs can already reach the US mainland. It states. He points out that the launch footage of the Hwasong-19 shows the post-boost vehicle (PBV) that is essential for the deployment of the MiRV.
He said that while MIRV needs further testing to keep the atmosphere reentry alive, the success of the MIRV equipped HWASONG-19 increases the number of warheads per missile, improving second strike resilience, and the US It says it will put missile defense at risk.
However, in a June 2024 article on the War Zone, Thomas Newdick said that while it may be technically feasible for North Korea to place multiple warheads on missiles, he would place them on multiple targets. He points out that this is more complicated.
Newdick said it is not clear whether North Korea has mastered the ability to accurately place warheads on targets after its release from ballistic missiles.
The ongoing Ukrainian war may have been a great boon for North Korea in the region. This month, Newsweek said that North Korea’s ballistic missiles used against Ukraine have become more accurate since last year, and now 50% from the target compared to the early stages of the conflict, where it is now 1-3km accurate. They reported a collision within ~100 meters.
As North Korea moves to production of serialized ICBMs, it increases the chances of overwhelming limited US missile defenses. Politico may have more ICBMs than the US has interceptors after North Korea displayed 10-12 Hwasong-17 ICBMs during a night parade in Pyongyang in February 2023 He reported.
Politico said that if North Korea can fit four warheads into each missile, these missiles could hypothetically overwhelm the US ground-based mid-course defense (GMD) system with only 44 interceptors It points out that there is. In addition to limited interceptor issues, GMD has only 55% effectiveness in highly scripted tests, and it is often necessary to have three interceptors to intercept a single warhead. did.
Recognition of US missile defense restrictions, in January 2025, US President Donald Trump signed an executive order to build the US “Iron Dome.” Cruise missiles and other next-generation aviation attacks.
However, experts are divided on the feasibility of the US iron dome project and whether it will increase deterrence or instability.
In this month’s Broken Defense article, Ankit Panda said that the US iron domes do not resolve the issue of vulnerability and find new ways to deliver nuclear weapons such as nuclear torpedoes and fractional orbital artillery fire (FOB) systems. They say it’s simply encouraging the enemy.
Along with that, North Korea developed “Hairyr” nuclear-armed underwater drones designed to penetrate enemy waters, explode and create radioactive tsunamis and destroy enemy ports and ships. However, it is not clear whether North Korea’s Hare Il is a real weapon or a propaganda scheme.
Additionally, Jessica West and Victoria Samson mention that space-based interceptors can burn international norms against the militarization of space, breaking defenses.
In an article in the American Enterprise Institute (AEI) in January 2025, Todd Harrison said that the cost of building a system of 1,900 SBIS could reach between 1.1 and 27 billion US dollars, but such a constellations were 2. It says that only two in-between missiles can be intercepted, but all other interceptors can go out. range.
Harrison highlights the absenteeism issue where low-earth orbit (LEO) satellites spend most of their time than the wrong parts of the Earth. This uncertainty in North Korea’s nuclear capabilities and US missile defense is consistent with various views on the former’s position regarding nuclear weapons.
Although North Korea is believed to aim to use nuclear weapons for enforcement to achieve political and military goals, Hwee-Rhak Park and Wooyun Jo said in December 2024. In an article in the peer-reviewed Journal of Defense & Security Analysis, it mentions that there are two North Korea’s goals to build a nuclear arsenal: first, to break the nuclear expansion deterrence (NED) of the South Korean Peninsula, and second To reunite the Korean Peninsula under that administration.
Park and Joe say the US could be revived with Ned’s stance on the South Korean Peninsula and fear North Korea’s nuclear retaliation against the US mainland. They say the US may respond with tactical nuclear weapons as long as North Korea restricts its use of nuclear weapons in South Korea’s military targets.
In the worst-case scenario, Park and Joe are saying that North Korea launches several nuclear weapons against South Korean cities, crippling the latter’s war capabilities and losing morale, and moving ground forces into the latter’s territory. They say they can force surrender.
At the same time, they say that if North Korea tries to avoid attacking South Korea’s US troops, takes aggressive action and forces the US to withdraw from the South Korean Peninsula, they can threaten a nuclear attack on them. Masu. However, they emphasize that using nuclear weapons against the United States or South Korea is a life-or-death decision by the North Korean regime.
Given these possibilities, Park and Joe are hoping to take nuclear deterrence measures, including the constant deployment of US nuclear ballistic missile submarines (SSBNs) near the Korean Peninsula, as well as the deployment of nuclear gravity bombs and missiles in Guam. It is recommended to strengthen it. Prepare the US and South Korean troops to fight nuclear sharing agreements and nuclear war.
