Since his re-election, Donald Trump has garnered much attention for his neo-annexationist proposals on social media regarding the Panama Canal, Greenland and Canada, including in the hours after Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced his resignation. . The next day, he threatened to use his “economic power” to make Canada the 51st state of the United States.
It is strange that President Trump, who is known as an anti-interventionist, so enthusiastically embraces ideas from the era of intense American imperialism.
Perhaps that is President Trump’s aim. Perhaps he is trying to revive the expansionist spirit of Theodore Roosevelt, William McKinley, and James Polk.
Canadians who heed the lessons of history will find in these designs a call to neo-polquism, a 54-40 or fight for the 21st century.
mild reaction
Not surprisingly, President Trump’s annexation proposal has been rebuked more strongly by the leaders of Panama, Greenland, and Canada, some more than others. Canada’s reaction was at best mild.
Outgoing Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, now the man President Trump routinely mocks as America’s 51st governor, in 2010 reverse-posted a video of the loud-mouthed Tom Brokaw explaining Canada to Americans. did.
Prime Minister Trudeau and Canadian ministers are also seeking an audience with the president-elect at his Mar-a-Lago mansion in Florida to hear about Trump’s devastating tariff threats, which are likely to be due to his annexation. is a far greater threat to Canada’s national interests than his outrage.
While some Canadians may have favorable views of the United States, few are interested in Canada becoming the 51st state.
Still, let’s run through Trump’s hypothesis. Let’s say Canada becomes the 51st state of the American Union. What are the election implications for the United States?
Democrats will win
Trump and his Republican Party will never like the answer that the Republican Party may never win a national election again. In fact, “Canada” would significantly change the electoral map of American politics, almost entirely in favor of the Democratic Party.
To see how, consider how the 51st state is represented in the institutions of the American government.
Let’s start with the House of Commons. Because the hardest part of Canada’s unification is the House of Commons. In the United States, House seats are allocated based on population representation. This means one House seat for every 761,169 people, based on the 2020 U.S. Census.
Canada, with a population of 41 million people, will receive about 54 seats, making it a larger state than California. These 54 House seats, combined with the two senators assigned to each state, create a powerful electoral force north of the 49th parallel. None of this is good news for Republicans.
Of course, this means that annexation can overcome American political battles over reapportionment and redistricting, and that Canada could reduce the U.S. constitutional and legal challenges of reducing the House of Representatives from 338 to 54 and the Senate from 105 to 2. It is assumed that the seat allocation method will be accepted. But it doesn’t matter.
Most Canadians will vote Democratic
Now let’s see how Canadians can change American elections. Transplanting Canadian political culture to American party politics is tricky, so let’s make a different assumption. Assume that Conservative Party voters in Canada vote Republican, and Conservative Left voters vote Democratic.
Generally, this includes supporters of the Liberal Party, the New Democratic Party, the Green Party, and the Bloc Quebecois.
The 51st state is a big problem for Trump here. Since the unification of Canada’s right-wing parties in 2003, the Conservative Party of Canada has won an average of 35% of the popular vote. Meanwhile, Canada’s conservative left-wing parties won an average of 63% of the vote during this period.
In American terms, this means that about two-thirds of Canadian voters will vote Democratic and one-third will vote Republican, or a 36-18 vote in favor of Democrats. .
Looking back over the past quarter century, this difference would have turned every Republican House majority into a Democratic majority (with the exception of 2010). In fact, the Canadian province’s large number of voters on the Conservative left will make it much more difficult for Republicans to win a House majority again.
In the Senate, two-thirds of Canada’s Conservative left voters are likely to send two Democrats to the Senate. This isn’t enough to change the balance of power, but in a world where the margin of victory in the Senate is single digits, that’s no small feat. After all, every senator matters, especially in things like the Supreme Court and cabinet confirmations.
Canadianization of the electoral college
A big question arises here. How will Canadian provinces change their electoral system?
Each state has a number of electoral votes, which is the sum of its representatives and senators. We also know (with a few exceptions) that the winner of each state’s popular vote receives all of that state’s Electoral College votes. Where do Canada’s 54 electoral college votes go?
Given that Canada leans to the Conservative left, Canadian provinces’ Electoral College votes are likely to go to the Democratic presidential candidate every time. That would have tilted the two Republican presidential victories this century (2000 and 2004) in favor of Democrats, and made Trump’s victories in 2016 and 2024 even smaller — so small, in fact. , the calculation of US elections in an enlarged US has changed radically will become difficult.
So perhaps it’s time for President Trump to recognize that Canada is a different country with its own history and political culture. Even better, President Trump could have realized that his brazen provocations are trivializing an unnecessary trade war that puts hundreds of billions of dollars and thousands of jobs at risk on both sides of the border. do not have.
President Trump may realize that the countries he opposes are part of a network of strategic allies that maintains America’s power in the world. Even if that’s not enough for Trump to act seriously, he can at least follow his electoral instincts.
(Author: Aaron Ettinger, Associate Professor of International Relations, Carleton University)
(Disclosure Statement: Aaron Ettinger does not work for, consult with, own stock in, or receive funding from any company or organization that might benefit from this article, and has no relevant affiliations other than an academic appointment. not disclosed)
This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.
(Except for the headline, this story has not been edited by NDTV staff and is published from a syndicated feed.)
