High stakes: About French President Macron and his politics

When French President Emmanuel Macron called for a dissolution of parliamentary elections in June, he had two political goals. One is to secure a new mandate for the centrist coalition, and the other is to stem the momentum of the far-right National Rally, which just came first in the European elections. . But what he gained was a hung parliament, where the left-wing New Popular Front (NFP) had emerged as the dominant force. And what he did was choose Michel Barnier, the conservative leader of the Republican Party who finished fourth in the election, to form a government. It was a foretold disaster. The government collapsed within three months and France lost its 2025 budget. And now, as if he has learned nothing from his gamble, Macron has appointed François Bayrou, leader of the Democratic Movement Party, which has only 33 of the 577 seats. – Member of the Diet as the next prime minister. Even if the Ensemble, which came in second place in Macron’s coalition government, and the Republican Party come together, they will not reach the majority (289 seats) needed to pass the bill in parliament. The Socialist Party, which is part of the left-wing coalition, has already announced that it will not participate in the new government. This would mean that Mr. Bayrou’s government, like Mr. Barnier’s, would be at the mercy of Marine Le Pen’s far-right National Rally for survival.

With rising unemployment and declining domestic consumption, France is in need of urgent policy intervention. The budget deficit soared to 6.1% of gross domestic product (GDP), worse than in eurozone countries Greece, Spain and Italy, which were hit hard by the 2008-09 debt crisis. France’s debt has also ballooned to 3.2 trillion euros, more than 112% of GDP. Compounding the crisis is the lack of a stable government. Bayrou’s immediate task is to get Congress to pass an emergency budget to keep essential services running. But this will require painstaking negotiations with far-right forces who oppose further cuts in social spending. This brings the political and economic situation back to square one. Part of the problem is that Mr. Macron refuses to accept changing political dynamics. Anti-establishment supporters are gaining strength due to economic hardship. While the far right and left are trying to unite workers from different political bases, Macron is (mis)using his presidential powers to maintain the status quo. He is prolonging the crisis by appointing an unpopular leader with no clear mandate as prime minister. If he is serious about “institutional stability,” a favorite Macronist tenet, he could build a coalition with the largest bloc, the left, and base the left on a consensus-driven political and economic program. They should have helped them govern.