With less than four weeks left in the German national election, the topic of immigration has returned to the forefront after the deaths of two people, including a two-year-old boy, following the knife attack in Southern Germany on January 22nd .
Two parties leading up to the national investigation, the conservative Christian Democrats (CDU/CSU) and the German far-right alternative (AFD), quickly sought stronger immigration restrictions.
CDU prime minister candidate Friedrich Merz said that if he became prime minister he would permanently close the German border on the first day.
The anti-immigration speech after the attacks from the CDU and AFD passed a non-binding motion on January 29th to tighten the German Parliament’s immigration rules. The motion proposed by the CDU was passed only with the help of the AFD, and for the first time in postwar German history, the motion was passed with the help of the far-right party.
Despite being the second-strongest party in terms of polls (20%), the AFD is classified as a suspected right-wing extremist group by the country’s security services.
“It’s a fatal sign for the future of German politics. This populistic debate is only strengthening the AFD and fears it will weaken the entire democratic spectrum within the country.” said Tareq Alaows, refugee policy spokesman for Pro Asyl, an immigration advocacy group.
In German politics, we often hear the term “brandmauer” or firewall. Mainstream parties have decided to cooperate with the government coalition with the far-right AFD, to pass the law, or to pass the law. When the CDU passed the move with support from AFD, its resolve was somewhat violated. This led to immediate protest between citizens and mainstream Democrats as the philosophical “red line” crossed.
Senior experts and global issue at the Stuttgart-based Robert Bosch Foundation’s Immigration Association, Ferdinand Milbach, said the January 22 attacks have made migration and integration the topic of the central election campaign. Therefore, he pointed out that it has already had a concrete impact.
“The conservative CDU is clearly leading the current polls and sharpens its rhetoric about migration. The AFD feels that its beliefs are confirmed and should use sad events to its advantage. “We do that,” Mirbach said. , according to many research.
On January 31st, the “Inflow Restriction Act” was voted. After much deliberation and delays, the law failed to collect enough votes to win. Again, CDU and AFD voted on the same side.
Milbach said it is doubtful whether the risk will pay off against Merz.
“Even from the CDU, there is a lot of criticism of this step. From the German federal premier, and – as the most prominent voice – from former Prime Minister Angela Merkel. If the CDU wins after the federal election, the Democratic Centre would be the one to have. We firmly assume that we can look for a majority,” Mirbach said. The “Democratic Center” in question is a mainstream political party like the Social Democrats (SPD) and Environmental Green on the centre left that voted against the CDU’s proposal on January 29th and 31st.
According to Marcus Engler, immigration analyst at Dezim Institute, the immigration debate continues because it is not new and there is always an election.
“The radicalization of conservative CDUs began a few years ago. They wanted it to reduce support for far-right AFDs. However, this assumption is deeply flawed because it is not working. “It has proven to be that AFD support has increased over the years,” Engler said.
Fourth lonely attack
The knife attack was carried out in Asschaffenburg, Bavaria, southern Germany, by asylum seekers in Afghanistan. Bavarian Home Minister Joachim Hermann said the alleged attacker was a 28-year-old psychiatric patient who arrived in Germany in late 2022 and is seeking asylum. His application was rejected and he agreed to leave Germany by December 2024, but that never happened.
German Prime Minister Olaf Scholz (SPD) condemned the attack and expressed fatigue about such attacks. He also sought an investigation into why the attackers were not deported from Germany on time. Authorities have ruled out the motives of fear in the attack.
“I’m tired of these violent crimes that occur every few weeks by individuals who come to us in search of protection,” Scholz said. “There’s no place here for false resistance.”
This knife attack is the fourth lonely attack within two years.
On December 20, 2024, a Saudi psychiatrist is said to have driven an SUV into a Christmas market in Magdeburg, Germany, killing six people and injuring a 299. Solingen is a West German town. In May 2024, Afghan nationals reportedly stabbed a police officer and injured three people in a knife attack in Mannheim.
In mid-January, the AFD Party’s regional branch was investigated for campaign tactics. This included distributing flyers similar to fake plane boarding passes. These flyers promoted one-way tickets for “illegal immigrants” from “Germany” to “safe country of origin.”
AFD prime minister candidate Alice Weidel normalized the word “setback” by using it in many campaign speeches. The term sparked nationwide protests last year after a secret meeting of right-wing extremists was revealed.
Asylum applications for Germany fell 34% from over 3,20,000 in 2023 to under 2,14,000 in 2024, according to the Federal Immigration and Refugee Bureau, but that has not stopped constant discussions about immigration .
“Germany is short on every edge. There is no adequate housing. Constituency level infrastructure is insufficient, and since inflation and prices rise, people’s salaries are no longer sufficient. No one is sociopolitics. We don’t discuss it, but everyone talks about migration,” Araus said.
The German economy was weak, with negative growth for the second year in a row. As for housing, the resignation government had declared that 400,000 new flats would be built a year. However, only around 2,45,000 new flats were built in 2024 and 2,10,000 new flats in 2024, according to the IFO Economic Research Institute.
Political disenfranchisation
A study conducted by the Robert Bosch Foundation shows that, despite 30% of German citizens having foreign roots, only 11% of current Bandetag members are in the background of the transition. have. Milbach calls it a systematic issue.
“There are too few networks and support structures that outweigh the disadvantages these people struggle with: racism on the one hand, and tokenism on the other,” Milbach said.
Araus feels that there is a lack of reasonable debate in the German parliament, making it easy for politicians to stay in their comfort zone and use immigrants as scapegoats.
“In Bandetag, few people can tell you how difficult it is for people to run. They were planning to support the election in the 2021 national election, but threats and racists. Arauz, who retracted his application following the attacks of the film, stated: He prefers to continue his political activities through civil society.
As of 2021, 14% of German voters have non-German backgrounds, and this number could increase to date as naturalization increases. Many sociological studies show that voters of this type are more likely to vote for a political party that protects candidates from the community.
“Therefore, it should be in the interest of Democrats to address immigrant voters and therefore prevent the erosion of social cohesion and to get decisive votes in the election,” Milbach said.
Will the firewall collapse?
Following the AFD victory in two German states in September 2024, Merz said, “If the CDU works with the AFD, it will sell its soul.” Fast forward to last week, Merz said he was willing to pass the law for stricter migration measures, regardless of which party supported him.
“The right thing in question is not wrong because the wrong people agree,” Meltz said.
The main requests for Merz’s five-point plan in the non-binding motion passed on January 29 include permanent border control, denial of irregular arrivals, i.e. asylum seekers and asylum applications denied. This includes detention of people and a significant increase in the number. of deportation and restrictions on residence rights, including family reunion.
Foreign Minister Analena Bearbock (Greens) rejected the proposal and said it was violated and could not be implemented.
The proposal was passed but clashes with many laws across Europe. A comprehensive denial of asylum seekers violates Dublin regulations, which require that asylum seekers be processed in the first country and take them to the country before being deported. It stipulates that you have to go. The proposal also violates the German fundamental law, which promises the right to asylum. Germany currently has temporary border control across nine land borders that continue until March 2025.
“Apart from many legal aspects, other obstacles are the ability to implement such policies, which is impossible. How many police officers can you post to the border for a check?” Engler told Ms. Ask, I point out that it will have a negative impact on the country’s economy and trade.
Araus said there is a high level of political disenfranchising among immigrants when mainstream parties compromise on so-called firewalls.
“Many people feel that, like it happened with Bundestag last week, they’re pushing away from mainstream politics when everything is under common doubt. The indirect influence is the past. It’s an increase in migrants and refugees by extremists over the years,” Arauz said.
Engler agrees. “It’s not just those who are afraid of asylum seekers, but highly qualified immigrants who feel rejected (which Germany needs,” he said.
Criticism from all corners
On February 2, about 1,60,000 citizens gathered in Central Berlin and partnered with the AFD to protest the motion passing.
Even former German Chancellor Angela Merkel, who belongs to the same party as Merkel and has barely commented on domestic politics since taking office in 2021, has broken his silence to criticize Merkel.
“We believe it’s wrong to abandon this commitment and as a result, to allow a majority in the AFD vote at Bundestag for the first time,” Merkel said.
Historically, Merkel and Merkel have political differences. After a disagreement with Merkel in 2005, Merkel left the CDU and is said to have returned to politics in 2021 after Merkel’s retirement. They had returned home to escape the civil war. Merkel has routinely criticised Merkel’s immigration policy.
Ms Merkel’s words definitely had an influence. On January 31, when the “Inflow Restriction Act” (suggested by Merz’s Christian Democrats) was introduced, 12 members of the CDU/CSU voted against it. A key proposal for the law was limited in immigration, limited family unity, and more authority for border police. If that had passed, it would have been the first time in postwar German history that a law was passed with support from far-right parties. Even during the February 2 protest, many citizens had placards that had Mr. Merz begged to pay attention to Merkel.
At the CDU’s party assembly on February 3, Merz repeated his position in the AFD.
However, CDU’s poll count has dropped by 2% since last week. At 28%, CDU/CSU is above the vote, with AFD at 20%, SPD at 16% and Greens at 15%. Not everyone at CDU/CSU agrees with Merz’s stance, adding a certain level of uncertainty to the CDU campaign.
“The votes don’t show a stable majority at the moment. If Merz continues this aggressive immigration stance, it will cause political conflict,” Engler said.
(Nimish Sawant is an independent journalist based in Berlin.
Published – February 8, 2025 01:03 AM IST
