Eric Carabel, ESPN Senior Writer
Every week in the NBA has its own story and is full of surprises, both positive and negative. And fantasy managers must decide what they will and will not believe going forward. Maybe we can help. If any of these ideas become reality…don’t be surprised.
Don’t be surprised…4 Cleveland Cavaliers are in the top 25 fantasy options
Unlike the West Division-leading Oklahoma City Thunder, who boast a player (PG Shai Gilgeous-Alexander) who is good enough to win league MVP and fantasy MVP honors, the Cavaliers are more balanced. Oklahoma City’s No. 2 fantasy scorer is PF/SF/C Jalen Williams (15th overall), but no one else is in the top 100. Chet Holmgren will definitely eat into his numbers, so fanciful managers beware. The great Thunder will be looking for revenge on Thursday after losing at home to the great Cavaliers last week, and two players are currently in charge.
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The Cavaliers open Thursday with PF/C Evan Mobley, PG Darius Garland and SG/PG Donovan Mitchell among the 25 players who have surpassed 1,500 ESPN Fantasy points during the season. Frankly, this is an outstanding piece of work combined with durability, but no player stands out as an MVP candidate. This is partly due to having four great performers on one team. Keep an eye out for the fourth member of the crew, C Jarrett Allen, who won’t be far away. Allen averages 36.4 fantasy points per game and has scored 39.6 fantasy points over the past 30 days, posting 15.1 PPG and 9.8 RPG. He shot 73.9% from the field in January.
At this point, it wouldn’t be too far-fetched for Allen to join his ranks as a top-25 fantasy provider (he’s currently No. 31 in ESPN Player Ratings). Think about how unlikely this is. Only one Cavalier (Mitchell) was selected in the top 25 according to ESPN ADP, Mobley was a fourth round pick, Garland was a fifth round pick and Allen was a 50th overall pick. I liked Allen on draft day, but he was the more productive fantasy option, posting 16.5 PPG last season (14.1 PPG this season). In fact, thanks to Allen’s 77 games played (Mitchell played in only 55), he led all Cavaliers in fantasy points last season and was the only Cavalier among the top 40 scorers. Allen’s growth is not at all surprising.
When it comes to the Cavaliers, fantasy managers may want to know how to proceed over the next few months. It seems unlikely that this franchise will publicly rest players with an eye on the playoffs. This team may aim for over 70 wins. History is important. The franchise record was 66 wins in 2008-09, a year in which not even LeBron James could clinch the No. 1 seed in the East over Dwight Howard and No. 3 seed Orlando.
I’m willing to trade any of these four Cavaliers as if they were a top 25 player to continue their development. I’d also like to take a look at SF/SG’s Max Strus, who has shown clear signs of relevance to deep league fantasy lately.
Don’t be surprised… Malik Beasley leads NBA in 3-point shots
Beasley’s former Timberwolves teammate, respected SG/SF Anthony Edwards, currently leads the league in 3-pointers made, and he will likely continue to shoot at this incredible pace. But that seems a little unlikely, especially with SG/PG Donte DiVincenzo starting and making shots. Sure, Edwards made 10 3-pointers in recent games against Beasley and the Pistons, but he also barely made 3-pointers in the home game against Memphis. Edwards shot 38% from 3-point range in December, averaging 3.1 per game. It’s still a lot, but his other months don’t seem to be that much. That may be an omen.
Meanwhile, Beasley, a journeyman on his sixth NBA team (started in just 11 games this season), took 4.6 3-pointers per game in December. He enters Thursday with four consecutive games with four or more hits. Edwards is the only player with more threes this season. Unlike Edwards, who has been criticized for a new, inefficient offensive approach and leads an underperforming team, Beasley’s expected role is to make as many 3-pointers as possible off the bench. Beasley ranks third among active players in 3FG attempts per 36 minutes and per 100 possessions. He is elite in this skill and can escape from rough shooters.
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The amazing Pistons certainly look like they’re on their way to their first East playoff berth in a decade, and PG/SG Cade Cunningham deserves the most credit for that. Cunningham is already enjoying his best season, and his stats so far in January have been even better, coinciding with SG/PG Jaden Ivey breaking his foot. SF/PF author Thompson is the starter, and although his overall play is still a little rough, there are no problems with his defense. Thompson keeps stealing bases. There’s a real fantasy here. With Beasley, we know who he is and that is invaluable. He is still available in over 75% of ESPN standard leagues.
One more thing: Warriors PG Stephen Curry led the league in 3-point shooting last season. The last time a Warrior didn’t lead the league in this category (Curry or Klay Thompson) was in 2019-20, when the Rockets’ James Harden led the league, but Curry played in just five games. I stayed. Harden led the league for three years, and before that, Curry led the league for five years. So the last time a player other than a Warrior or Rocket led the league in 3-point shooting was Orlando’s Ryan Anderson in 2011-12. He made 166 3-point shots. Edwards entered Wednesday at 163. I thought you should know.
Don’t be surprised…Jordan Poole finishes as a top 50 player
So where was this performance last season? It’s a valid question, and for many fantasy managers, it’s one that’s asked in an angry and bitter way. Still, Poole’s second season in Washington is on track, averaging 21.5 PPG, 3.6 3PG, and 1.5 SPG. Both were career highs. His first year in Washington didn’t go well, and even now most people would have expected something like 25.0 PPG from a player who is hardly afraid to shoot, but this version of Poole is one game into Thursday. He’s averaging 35.5 ESPN Fantasy points, so that’s not too bad. , League No.65. Although this isn’t a top 50, Poole is off to a strong start in January.
There are some reasons to doubt Poole will develop in the second half of the season, but perhaps they’re not all that plausible. The Wizards are better off losing games to increase their odds of acquiring the No. 1 draft pick (which should be the generational talent Cooper Flagg out of Duke), but the losses stop the individual scoring. Not really. The Wizards had lost seven straight entering Thursday’s game against Phoenix. No NBA team has fewer wins. Additionally, PF/SF Kyle Kuzma just returned from injury, which could impact Poole’s usage and shot rate. So far, that’s not the case. Similarly, young C/PF Alexandre Sarr, SF/SG Bilal Koulibaly, and PG/SG Carlton Carrington are also learning, but they are not preventing Poole from scoring.
The Wizards should look even younger after the pending trade deadline, with C. Jonas Valanciunas, PG/SG Malcolm Brogdon, and Kuzma being obvious targets. Poole has an exorbitant contract. He’ll probably remain a Wizard. Frankly, with the organization playing it safe with Sarr and the younger players, Poole may have a better chance of playing regularly and putting up numbers. You probably wouldn’t trade him expecting a top-50 performance, but he hasn’t been far from that range for the first half of this season. This is another reminder that fantasy managers really shouldn’t hold grudges.
