South Africa and Trump land rows could move from aid to trade

South Africa appears to be at a crossroads in its wax and decline relationship with the United States following President Donald Trump’s controversial decision to cut financial aid to the country last week.

Trump said that South Africa filed a genocide case against Israel at the International Court of Justice (ICJ) in December 2023, which has led to the creation of an “unfair and immoral practice” against the white minority Africanor community. He said he is pursuing what he called.

His move sends a shockwave to South Africa, and experts will use the opportunity to end priority access to the US market through a special US African trade program known as the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA). I’m afraid.

The two countries have generally formed friendly relations since the end of the White Minority Rules when anti-apartheid icon and Nobel Peace Prize winner Nelson Mandela was elected South Africa’s first black president in 1994.

It took another 14 years to remove Mandela from the “terrorist watchlist” because of his role in the fight against the racist system of apartheid introduced by the African rulers of South Africa in 1948.

The latest tensions flare up a few days after Trump’s inauguration last month after President Cyril Ramaphosa signed the law, allowing the government to confiscate the land without compensation under certain circumstances.

Trump’s response came last week when he threatened to cut future funds for what he called “awful, horrifying.”

The US president also denounced South Africa without any basis for “confiscating the land” and “probably doing much worse.”

He doubled in the face of a fierce rebuttal from the South African government and signed an executive order last Friday to freezing aid.

This will result in the amount of aid reportedly allocated in 2023 – the US embassy in South Africa will not be affected by funding from Pepfer, an American program to combat the global spread of HIV. That said, it would amount to around $440 million (£353 million). , adds a warning that “not all pep foul activities will resume.”

South Africa is one of Pepfar’s biggest beneficiaries, contributing about 17% to the HIV/AIDS programme, in which around 5.5 million people receive anti-retroviruses.

In the executive order, Trump also accused South Africa of “not shocking the rights of citizens” and “taking an offensive stance” against the US and its ally Israel in the ICJ case.

In addition to the aid freeze, Trump offered to help refugees from the African community, the whitest descendants of early Dutch and French settlers, settling in the United States.

His stance has come into the hands of conservative African lobby groups, including African Falmon and solidarity, who want to abolish what the government wants to abolish what is called “racial-based laws” such as positive action and black economic empowerment.

It offers views from Trump’s close adviser Elon Musk, a South African-born tech billionaire. He questioned X why Ramaphosa had “openly racist possession laws.”

This is not the first time South Africa’s land reform policy has elicited Trump’s rage.

During his first presidency in 2018, he denounced South African authorities for “large killings of farmers” and asked the then Secretary of State to look into government issues “from white farmers to underground settlements.” I asked.

Trump’s comments sparked backlash at the time, but Dr. Oscar van Haierden, a political analyst at the University of Johannesburg, told the BBC that “these kind of radical actions were taken at the point of the signed executive order. It never happened.”

Their relationship is currently in a state of uncertainty – both countries are squeezing the next move.

On the trade front, Donald Mackay, CEO of Johannesburg-based trade consulting firm XA Global Trade Advisors, said the US was one of South Africa’s biggest partners, but not the “closest trading partner.” Ta.

South Africa exports a variety of minerals to the United States, including platinum, iron and manganese.

It is also one of the largest exporters under AGOA, generating around $2.7 billion in revenue in 2023. This is mainly from the sale of vehicles, jewelry and metals.

“Over the years, the relationship has faded and waned. It was by no means strong (as white rules have ended in South Africa), but at the same time, I also don’t think it has deteriorated as much as in recent years. And I don’t think it’s South Africa’s fault,” Mackay told the BBC.

However, he admitted that South Africa has done “a lot” in recent years to irritate the United States.

“These stimuli accumulate under President Trump, and this is seen as an opportunity to put South Africa in its place.”

Dr. Van Hayerden has partially reduced dynamics changes from China, India, Brazil and others to a “global shift” and “new competition to compete with the US.”

Experts discussed the benefits of Agoa coming for reviews later this year, but agreed that the impact may not be as important as fear.

Introduced in 2000, Agoa offers qualified access to the US in sub-Saharan African countries for over 1,800 products.

Mackay said he would be surprised if South Africa continued to benefit from the priority contract after reviews.

“My instinct is, whatever the reason Trump is upset with South Africa, at this point, Agoa will be the easiest mechanism to use to punish South Africa.”

Dr. Van Hyerden added that even if the agreement is not renewed or South Africa is ruled out, businesses currently benefiting from it will suffer short-term losses, but will bounce back in a few years.

He said President Ramaphosa’s government had chosen a diplomatic route — the Trump administration’s lack of interest in diplomacy appears to have significantly reduced the likelihood of success.

This is probably not helped by Ronald Lamora’s sluggish response to Trump’s moves on Wednesday.

“Withbeing our principles can sometimes have consequences, but we are solidly aware that this is important to the world and to the rule of law,” Lamora told the Financial Times.

Israel denies that South Africa has accused Israel of committing genocide against Palestinians living in Gaza.

Meanwhile, Ramaphosa announced that in his capabilities as G20 president, he will send delegations around the world to clarify South Africa’s domestic and foreign policy.

South Africa envisioned the G20 presidency, a country’s cohort that they meet in December to discuss global economic and political issues, and saw it as an opportunity to strengthen their international position.

However, on a snub to South Africa, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio announced that he would not attend the G20 meeting of the Foreign Ministers in Johannesburg next week.

“My job is not to smooth out waste taxpayer money or anti-Americanism, but to move forward with the national interests of the US,” he said.

South Africa is part of the BRICS and is an alliance of major developing countries, including Brazil, Russia, India and China, seeking to challenge the political and economic power of wealthy countries in North America and Western Europe.

Mackay believes it will be difficult for South Africa and other countries to navigate relations with the US under the “most unpredictable politicians in the world,” and they use BRICS as an alternative partner. It suggests that you have to look.

However, for South Africa, the European Union (EU), one of its biggest trading partners, has reaffirmed its support for the country.

Antonio Costa, chairman of the Council of Europe, which sets the general political direction and prioritization of the EU, spoke to Ramaphosa over the phone to highlight “the EU commitment to deepen relations with South Africa.” I posted this on X on Monday.

If the attractive South African attack fails, Van Hayerden suggests that the government can choose to “negotiate vigorously” and use the minerals it supplies to the United States as a “negotiation chip.”

However, he expresses his warning: “South Africa must think very carefully about how they play this chess game (here) the opening gambit already has President Trump and Eron It is made from masks.”