Hungary threatened Brussels to refuse to renew the EU sanctions on Russia if blocks did not persuade Ukraine to resume gas transport from Russia to Europe.
The EU has revived sanctions every six months, and without roll over, sanctions are set to expire by midnight on January 31.
Their rollover has been in a long time, but recently Hungary, which is often supported by Slovakia, has made a weapon with the consent of political leverage.
The Foreign Minister EU tries to reach a unanimous decision when we meet in Brussels for a monthly consultation on Monday.
What measures are in danger?
Since the invasion of Ukraine in Russia in February 2022, the EU imposed 15 round sanctions in Russia. This includes the prohibition of trade -based sector -based and the measures to freeze Russian central bank assets.
The EU uses Windfall profits from these assets to make a loan of G7 $ 50 billion in Ukraine. In the long term, the assets themselves were considered a source of funding for the reconstruction of Ukraine after reconciliation.
Last week, the top diplomat of the EU, Kaja Crow, hopes that diplomats will give a tip for negotiations in future Ukraine’s peace negotiations, so when sanctions are canceled, Russia’s “leverage” is obtained. I warned that it was.
Why is it difficult to update them now?
Kyiv, as of January 1, has stopped the Russian gas flow in Europe through DRUZHBA Pipeline, and Europe has already decided to abandon Russian gas, and this has been finalized.
However, Hungary wants to persuade Brussels to resume gas transport via Russian gas pipeline over Ukraine over Ukraine and reach Central Europe. Budapest uses veto as a pressure tool in the EU discussion on Russian sanctions framework.
When the EU ambassador met in Brussels on Friday, the country blocked the agreement and consulted with US partners about the issue.
Prime Minister ViktorBán said that the EU sanctions against Russia failed, saying that “the time of change has arrived,” Hungary caused 19 billion euros financial damage without proving how the number was calculated. I insisted.
“Now, the problem of sanctions rollover is on the agenda, and I have drawn the brakes and ask the EU leaders to understand that this cannot be continued,” Oban told Hungary’s radioxos.
What is the possibility that Hungary will not give in?
It is difficult to say. Budapest may be looking for a bargain, but the EU officials remain hoped for Hungary to succumb, and “Plan B” is expected to leave without agreement because the bet is too high. He said not.
Last year, Central European countries had a few weeks of Ukraine assistance and stopped only after the broken bones.
“If Budapest actually stops sanctions,” the EU diplomat told the reporters, “I will put a bomb in the Atlantic crossing.”
The new US administration may be an additional factor in Hungary’s decision, as the relationship between Orban and Trump is likely to affect Ukrainian Budapest lines.
After taking office, the US President warned that if Moscow did not end the war in Ukraine, it would impose further sanctions on Russia.
“The beauty of Trump is that he has a big megaphone, and he agrees that Russia has now left pressure.
Hungary is trying to buy cheap oil and gas from Russia, and Trump wants more Europeans to buy more US LNG, so this may not work in Washington.
What options do EU have?
If the Foreign Minister EU could not update sanctions on Monday due to Hungary’s veto, he said that he had enough time to call the possibility of the EU Summit on this issue.
There are also very unconventional solutions that protect some of the EU sanctions.
Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Belgium has blocked about 190 billion euros on the Russian central bank assets frozen at the national securities house EUROCLEAR. The 81 -year -old Belgian war law may block these assets to Russia, but must be caused by the King of Belgium.
What happens if there is no rollover by January 31?
It is an unknown territory.
Sanctions EU member states are based on the EU legal act. EU officials have stated that Russia would not be awarded for sanctions retroactively due to the legal foundation of the EU’s Russian sanctions.
Current Appeals -Like some Russian entities, such as Oligar Hi and companies, existing measures in which existing measures are being implemented is handled by the EU’s general court.
(AB)
