The year 2024 saw important developments in the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) bloc, marking a decisive chapter in its evolution. As global power dynamics continue to shift amid economic turmoil, geopolitical conflict, and technological advances, BRICS is attracting global attention as a potential counterweight to Western-led institutions.
With an ambitious expansion effort that saw six new members join: Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Argentina, BRICS appears poised to reshape the contours of global governance. Argentina rejected the invitation, but Saudi Arabia’s membership remains in doubt, balancing relations with the BRICS, China and Russia with the United States. But the question remains: Can Block go beyond rhetoric and deliver real results?
BRICS: The power of multipolarization
The BRICS countries, home to approximately 42% of the world’s population, are becoming increasingly influential. Together they account for 37.3% of global GDP (purchasing power parity) and control a significant share of global trade, energy production, and critical mineral reserves. The International Monetary Fund has predicted that global economic growth will become increasingly dependent on the BRICS bloc in 2024, highlighting the BRICS bloc’s potential to drive development in the Global South.
The enlarged BRICS member states control nearly half of the world’s oil production, control important mineral markets such as lithium, and account for a significant share of international merchandise trade.
The bloc’s recent expansion, dubbed “BRICS Plus,” strengthens its energy and resource profile. The enlarged BRICS members collectively control nearly half of the world’s oil production, control important mineral markets such as lithium, and account for a significant share of international merchandise trade. Such economic gravity presents an opportunity to challenge the dollar’s dominance, primarily through the development of digital currencies.
BRICS has achieved significant milestones, especially in trade and investment. Intra-BRICS trade will double in 20 years and account for 40% of global trade in goods by 2022. With the establishment of the New Development Bank (NDB) and the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB), BRICS countries mobilized more than $71 billion in financing. Promote infrastructure development and sustainable development projects, and build a strong framework for economic cooperation. The BRICS countries have also made great strides in the digital economy, with near-universal coverage of 3G and 4G networks and continued rollout of 5G.
Challenges to unity
Despite their growing influence, the BRICS face major hurdles. The bloc’s political heterogeneity is both a strength and a weakness. Tense relations between India and China, Saudi Arabia and Iran are examples of internal divisions that complicate unified decision-making. Furthermore, divergent economic priorities and ideological differences raise questions about the bloc’s ability to maintain cohesion, especially as its membership expands.
Geopolitical tensions further complicate the trajectory of BRICS. The bloc aims to promote a multipolar world order, but risks being seen as “anti-Western”, especially given China’s dominance within the group. Balancing its leadership role in the BRICS with its strategic interests in the West and concerns about China’s Belt and Road Initiative poses a delicate challenge for India.
Looking back at the future of BRICS
Strengthening South-South Cooperation: BRICS is uniquely positioned to champion the interests of the Global South by reforming multilateral institutions and promoting inclusive development. The NDB is crucial in financing sustainable projects, and regional digital cooperation and industrialization can foster innovation and economic growth. As a bridge between the global North and South, India has the potential to lead efforts to create innovative development models. Transforming energy markets: BRICS could redefine global energy dynamics by including oil-rich members such as Iran and the UAE. An EU focus on reducing dependence on the US dollar in energy trading and rare earth minerals could reduce Western influence in critical supply chains. But success will depend on whether the bloc can overcome internal divisions and harness its collective potential. Expanding strategic partnerships: To increase global relevance, BRICS needs to cooperate with other multilateral frameworks such as the G20, WTO, and IMF. Developing partnerships with the EU and other emerging economies could strengthen its ability to influence global governance. However, domestic economic protectionism and fragmented cooperation pose significant challenges. India’s Balance Act: India’s role in the BRICS is crucial. By advocating for multipolarity, technical cooperation, and counterterrorism efforts, India can shape the bloc’s trajectory while addressing its own geopolitical and economic priorities. Successful relations with China, Russia, and the West will be crucial for India to leverage BRICS to address global challenges such as climate change and energy security.
The way forward: actions and aspirations
Although BRICS has made great strides in fostering a multipolar world order, its ability to realize its lofty ambitions remains uncertain. The bloc must address internal divisions, strengthen cooperation and ensure its efforts lead to tangible results. Through innovative financial mechanisms, expanded trade, and reforms to global governance structures, BRICS must demonstrate its ability to act as a transformative force in the Global South.
The future of BRICS depends on its ability to balance diversity and unity, and ambition and pragmatism. If successful, this grouping could redefine global power structures and become the basis for a just world order. Otherwise, its impact may remain limited to rhetoric and the promise of a truly multipolar world remain unfulfilled.
This commentary was originally published on ISPI.
The views expressed above belong to the authors. ORF research and analysis is now available on Telegram. Click here to access our carefully selected content (blogs, long-form articles, interviews).
