NEW DELHI, India — When China announced the creation of a new district last week, it drew a boundary line that included land that India claims as part of Ladakh, an area New Delhi administers federally.
India quickly responded with public protests. External Affairs Ministry spokesperson Randhir Jaiswal said New Delhi “never accepted the illegal Chinese occupation of Indian territory in the region.” He said China’s announcement does not lend “legitimacy” to Beijing’s territorial claims.
The latest skirmishes between the Asian giants highlight the fragility of the detente declared along the two countries’ border in October after four years of standoff between the two militaries. Questions about the future of land previously controlled by India but allegedly seized by China since 2020 remain unanswered by both sides, although neighboring countries have withdrawn many soldiers.
Now, analysts say India-China relations seem poised to face a new big test: US President-elect Donald Trump.
The former president, who effectively waged a trade war with China during his first term, threatened to impose 100% tariffs on Chinese imports. However, President Trump threatened to impose tariffs on India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi, while describing him as a “good man.”
As the Jan. 20 inauguration approaches, President Trump appears to have softened a bit toward China, a country at the heart of the business interests of billionaire Elon Musk, an ally of the next U.S. president. management. All this is causing anxiety in a section of India’s strategic community.
Jayant Prasad, a former Indian diplomat, said President Trump “has a tendency to pander to his enemies and make his friends nervous.”
In November, shortly after winning the U.S. presidential election, Trump said he would “save” the Chinese-owned social media app TikTok, which he had previously sought to ban. President Trump also extended an invitation to Chinese President Xi Jinping to attend his inauguration. The Chinese government has not accepted the invitation, or at least not publicly rejected it, but some analysts say Mr. Xi is unlikely to attend.
Meanwhile, it is not known that President Trump has sent a similar invitation to Mr. Modi. He held two joint rallies with Mr. Modi in 2019 and 2020 in Houston and the Indian city of Ahmedabad. Indian social media is full of memes mocking Mr. Modi, suggesting that the purpose of External Affairs Minister Jaishankar’s visit to Washington late last month was to woo Mr. Trump’s boss for an invitation. .
Analysts said President Trump’s ambiguous attitude toward China was troubling New Delhi, and warned that either the extremes of a harsh anti-China campaign by Washington or a deal with China would be detrimental to India.
“There are two dangers for India from a second term,” said Christopher Clary, a nonresident fellow at the Stimson Center and associate professor of political science at the University at Albany.
“Trump and his team may be more hawkish than New Delhi’s preferences, especially when it comes to trade and investment flows that force India to make choices it doesn’t want,” he told Al Jazeera. “Alternatively, the Trump campaign could try to strike a big deal with China to burnish his credentials as the ultimate deal maker, which would put India in a bind.”
Prasad also said he expected India-US relations to remain strong, but that problems could arise if President Trump decides to strengthen ties with China.
In an editorial last week, the Chinese Communist Party’s mouthpiece, the Global Times, advocated a relationship-building approach that focuses on cooperation between China and the United States, particularly in areas such as technology. Under President Joe Biden, the United States has imposed a series of sanctions and other restrictions on Chinese technology, particularly semiconductors. China is fighting back with its own restrictions, including on exports of critical minerals to the United States.
India is trying to navigate the uncertainty surrounding President Trump’s approach to China. Prime Minister Modi is scheduled to host the Quad summit in 2025, which includes the US, India, Japan and Australia, and New Delhi is hoping for a visit from President Trump to India. Meanwhile, China is scheduled to host the Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit this year, and Prime Minister Modi may also visit the country.
New Delhi cracked down on Chinese apps and banned TikTok after a clash between Indian and Chinese troops in Galwan in Ladakh in May 2020 left at least 20 Indian soldiers dead. India has increased scrutiny of Chinese investments and infrastructure projects in the country, citing national security concerns. However, with the overall slowdown in foreign investment inflows, India’s finance ministry has advocated for encouraging Chinese investment again in 2024.
Amitabh Mathur, former special secretary of India’s foreign intelligence agency, Research and Analysis, said the United States has taken an aggressive approach toward China in recent years, establishing itself as the leading power in the Asia-Pacific. He said he believed he was particularly successful. . Strengthening US-India ties is at the heart of Washington’s pushback against Beijing in the region.
Most experts expect Trump to continue his broad-based approach, but some say the presence of allies like Musk on his team could weaken the president’s actions. There are some too.
Anil Trignayat, a former Indian diplomat and strategic analyst, said, “I think the U.S. tilt toward India is unlikely to change in the broader Indo-Pacific context, but the U.S. is willing to make a better deal with China.” It will be,” he said. “Mr. Musk and other industrialists on his team will no doubt try to tamper with his excessive tariff plans.”
Just how many questions does India need answers to?
