In just a few weeks, Joe Biden will leave the Oval Office for the last time, with a legacy with more ups and downs than perhaps any president in modern American history.
From an economic policy perspective, Biden’s presidency has been a remarkable success. When he took office in January 2021, he inherited an economy battered and scarred by the coronavirus pandemic. He contributed to the design of the “soft landing”, generally considered the best in the world.
During his four years in office, 16 million new jobs were created, the most by any president in a single term, including a significant increase in manufacturing jobs. The unemployment rate has fallen to its lowest level in 50 years. Wage growth was led by the working class, and a record 20 million new business applications have been filed since President Biden took office.
From a policy perspective, Biden arguably ranks as one of the best one-term presidents.
From a legislative perspective, Biden signed several major bills, including a nearly $1 trillion infrastructure bill and the Anti-Inflation Act. The latter includes nearly $400 billion to mitigate the effects of climate change, the largest investment ever made by any country. Additionally, IRAs allowed Medicare to negotiate and subsequently lower drug prices. Biden also signed the CHIPS Act, which provides more than $50 billion in spending to boost the U.S. semiconductor industry, and the first gun safety law in decades.
On foreign policy, Biden finally ended the US war in Afghanistan and formed a global coalition to counter Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. While there are legitimate criticisms of his handling of the war in Gaza, he played a key role in preventing a larger and more deadly regional conflict.
From a policy perspective, Biden arguably ranks as one of the best one-term presidents, second only to James Polk, who pushed the country’s westward expansion. Certainly, he is better than William Howard Taft, John Adams, George H.W. Bush, etc. (To be fair, most one-term presidents are either mediocre or bad, which is one reason they weren’t reelected.)
However, presidents are not evaluated solely on their policy achievements. Few presidents can match Lyndon Johnson when it comes to proposing and signing legislation that transforms America. But politically, he was a disaster that divided and arguably weakened the Democratic Party (at the presidential level) for a generation to come.
Biden’s political record may define his legacy, but not in a good way.
When Biden took office, most voters viewed him favorably. But by fall 2021, after a chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan, his approval ratings had declined and never recovered.
The main reason was the inflation problem, which weakened established political parties around the world. However, Mr. Biden cannot escape from the crisis so easily. No matter how hard he tried, Biden was a mediocre communicator, and although he persuaded 81 million Americans to vote for him in 2020, he was unable to garner the same political support as the president. . In 2023 and 2024, inflation began to recede and the economy improved, but that did not translate into good poll numbers for Biden. Biden’s supporters will blame the media, Republicans in Congress or bad luck for his failure to attract voters or convince them that the domestic situation is improving. But the president’s bully pulpit is a powerful tool, and Biden failed to utilize it effectively.
Biden’s legacy will be further tarnished by questions about his age and decision to seek reelection.
His legislative accomplishments may stand the test of time.
Two years ago, some would argue that Biden’s most important accomplishment was ousting Donald Trump from office after a disastrous four years in office that shook the very foundations of American democracy. In fact, the latest edition of the Presidential Greatness Project, a poll of presidential experts, ranks Biden 14th overall. Adams was the only one-term president to rank higher.
However, although Biden ousted Trump from the White House in 2021, he undoubtedly contributed to Trump’s return in 2025. To be clear, it is impossible to know whether Biden would have had a different election outcome had he withdrawn from the presidential race sooner. Globally, all incumbent parties lost electoral share in 2024. Regardless of the party’s standard-bearer four years from now, there is a strong possibility that the 2020 presidential election victory was a poisoned chalice for the Democratic Party.
But that’s not enough protection, says Justin Vaughn, a professor at Coastal Carolina University who co-directs the Presidential Greatness Project. Since the Project conducted its most recent study in 2023, Bourne said, “Americans have learned how much the White House covered for his physical decline. He campaigned until he had no other choice.” resisting withdrawing from (despite directly and explicitly promising not to do so) He granted his son an extremely broad pardon, effectively making him a part-time president.”In the end, Mr. Vaughn said Mr. Biden’s “presidential legacy would be a bridge to a new generation,” and instead reneged on the Trump administration. “It will be defined by its role as a mere link between the first and second acts of the film.”
Margaret O’Mara, a history professor at the University of Washington, said there are “not enough issues yet to be resolved” for Biden to pass a verdict. “Yes, quite a bit has been accomplished that could have a long-term impact on the Polk Way,” she says. James Buchanan. (Most historians place Buchanan, like Biden, at the bottom of presidential rankings as a one-term president.)
Joshua Zeitz, a historian and contributing editor at Politico, said it’s unclear how much of Biden’s legislative legacy will survive the next four years of Trump’s presidency, so it’s hard to predict how much of Biden’s presidency will remain. It may still take many years to evaluate it. Zeitz believes Biden has been a “very good president,” but if Trump does fundamental or irreparable damage to the U.S. democratic system, Biden’s chances of re-election will be affected. It will shed even more negative light on stubborn claims.
As Biden prepares to leave office, it would certainly be comforting to leave the country in better shape than when he took office, and his legislative accomplishments may stand the test of time. But it’s the ultimate irony that the man who brought Biden back into presidential politics may have the last word on the legacy of his one term.
