Crypto Bull Run Guide

Bitcoin Halving, All-Time Highs, and Altcoin Season—A Recipe for a Bull Market or? First, the halving of Bitcoin will reduce the issuance rate and cause a supply shortage. BTC then rebounds against ATH and a large number of altcoins are pushed up by investors who prefer higher returns at a higher risk. Altcoin season is in full swing. Bitcoin underwent its most recent halving in May of this year, and shortly after it broke through the historic $100,000 mark. Still, the altcoin market is bleeding. Where do you usually meet? Is the golden recipe broken? With a surge in institutional capital, a liquidity crunch due to high interest rates, and President Trump’s proactive and bold stance on cryptocurrencies, one thing is certain: this cycle will be unlike anything we’ve seen before. That’s what it means.

How is this cycle different?

Every cycle has four stages: accumulation, markup, distribution, and markdown. Although the mechanisms behind these stages are well known, timing the market is one of the most sought-after skills. In order to develop a trading strategy, we try to predict when we will enter a certain stage. However, even if the cycle follows a predictable pattern, we should not forget about broader market conditions. And cryptocurrencies have been through a lot in the past year.

institutional capital

The growing presence of institutional investors in the Bitcoin market is reshaping the dynamics of the Bitcoin market. Ranked as the seventh largest asset in the world, Bitcoin has become a new asset of choice for financial institutions, fueled by the emergence and growth of crypto ETFs. Their increased involvement often results in greater price stability. However, it may not be good news for altcoins. After all, volatility and large corrections direct capital flows towards altcoins. Lower volatility means less potential returns to the altcoin market.

This year was special. The launch of the Bitcoin Spot ETF has brought significant capital inflows from traditional finance into the crypto market. Institutional inflows into these ETFs created a supply shock for Bitcoin, strengthening its dominance. The demand for Bitcoin driven by ETFs has a direct impact on Bitcoin’s dominance, which currently stands at around 56%, but this important indicator is often overlooked by novice traders. It measures the market share of BTC compared to altcoins and provides insight into whether it is Bitcoin season (BTC outperforming) or Altcoin season (altcoins outperforming). Provide. What does a strong BTC advantage with a stable Bitcoin price mean? Altcoin dumping. And in this cycle, the Bitcoin Spot ETF extended Bitcoin’s dominance. This new variable is something that has not been present in previous bull markets and will make the 2025 altcoin season truly unique.

Macro: liquidity and regulation

Ask any financial executive about the most important financial metric, and they’ll likely tell you it’s liquidity. In 2023 and 2024, U.S. interest rates rose to their highest levels in a long time. Although the yield has fallen to 4.19% from 5.25% a year ago, it is still a relatively attractive yield for a risk-free asset. On the other hand, interest rate cuts often fuel bull markets in cryptocurrencies for a very simple reason. That means creating a favorable environment for riskier assets to grow. After all, risk-free government debt yielding 0.11% like in 2021 is about as attractive as losing capital to inflation. Low interest rates make borrowing cheaper and increase liquidity, which encourages investors to park their money in search of higher returns. where? Yes, you guessed it. Cipher.

The victory of the Trump administration in the United States undoubtedly shook the world of cryptocurrencies. The Bitcoin Act has sparked a lively debate across crypto and non-crypto circles. If passed, the Senate bill would require the Treasury Department and the Federal Reserve to purchase 200,000 bitcoins annually within five years to accumulate 1 million bitcoins. In other words, about 5% of the world’s supply. Needless to say, the pro-cryptocurrency regulation is a very meaningful step for the widespread adoption of crypto assets, and President Trump’s stance has proven to evoke positive sentiment, making it clear that future presidents have no plans to create a Bitcoin federal government. Bitcoin reached ATH immediately after confirmation. make a reservation.

With BTC maintaining its dominance, high interest rates in the US, and pro-crypto regulations, should we expect a full-fledged altcoin supercycle in 2025? That’s the question.

“Wen Altun”

If history has taught us anything, it’s that altcoin pumps often follow big moves in Bitcoin. However, it is impossible to accurately estimate how large those price movements will be, or how long it will take altcoins to rise after Bitcoin hits its all-time high. said David Siemer, CEO of Wave Digital Assets. “I don’t think we’ll see a dramatic altcoin season like 2021 in the near future, which means BTC’s dominance will drop below 40%.”However, as BTC continues to rise, altcoins value will increase significantly. ” Further, Seamer added, “For altcoins to break out like they did in 2021 compared to BTC, the usage (adoption) and value (earnings) of altcoins would have to increase by orders of magnitude.” , emphasized that this could happen within at least three years. However, once the altcoin season begins, it is easy to recognize itself as there are some very bullish signals.

Altcoins, especially large altcoins, are outperforming Bitcoin and rapidly increasing in price. Multiple narratives are driving this growth, not limited to a single trend. Altcoin dominance will skyrocket as during the May 2021 altcoin season. These coins have gained significant market position, with the market capitalization of the top 100 altcoins reaching 1.3 times that of Bitcoin. FOMO-based sentiment, high trading volumes, and risk-on investors are fueling buying pressure and price momentum.

Cane Island Digital Research has shared its findings on the seasonality of altcoin bull markets, “Proof of Altseason,” showing that ETH is a proxy for experiencing an altcoin bull market. Additionally, we note a repeating pattern during the orthoseason period from January to May.

excellent performance of the story

The upcoming altcoin season may look very different from what we are used to, but certain sectors are securing their place in the cryptocurrency space. After the $VIRTUAL token experienced a 24908.4% (or 249x) pump, it is safe to say that we have entered a new level of narrative dominance. While meme coins have the potential to outperform real-world assets and fields such as AI, AI agents are in a league of their own and are often seen as the driving force behind the next supercycle.

According to Kaito AI, artificial intelligence is still at its peak, and with the advancement of AI agents, the on-chain AI economy will gain significant mindshare, peaking at 50% in 2024. This trend is likely to continue into 2025 due to unprecedented demand for AI services.

Institutional adoption driven by major companies like BlackRock has also impacted sectors such as real-world assets, legitimizing tokenization as a fundamental building block of the crypto world. While most attention has focused on AI and AI agents, the traditional financial industry is exploring tokenization as a viable business option, with major banks such as JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs looking to disrupt financial markets. is trying.

How to prepare for altcoin season?

As we enter 2025, there are a few things to keep in mind before the altcoin season begins. First, the Bitcoin advantage is on your side, so use it wisely to time your trades. Websites like BlockchainCenter.net can help you assess whether you are in altcoin or Bitcoin season. Important things to keep in mind are:

Cryptocurrencies are primarily driven by sentiment, so look for regulatory developments, macroeconomic trends, or crypto-native stories (DeFi, AI agents, meme coins). Not all altcoins follow BTC price trends. Historically, projects with strong fundamentals or that align with an emerging narrative, such as AI projects, perform better. However, stick to quality over quantity and focus on projects with strong fundamentals, an active team, and ideally a product-market fit that excites a large community. Modification is healthy. These signal consolidation and allow investors to enter positions before the next leg up. Altcoin seasons often occur during the later stages of a bull market. be patient.

altcoin season 2025

The virtual currency market is maturing. Each cycle is a stepping stone and should be considered a learning lesson. While meme coins are still making their mark, new narratives are becoming more and more influential. But here’s the most interesting part. The stories that are currently trending, like AI agents, are more than just fads. What’s more, we are currently facing greater macroeconomic and institutional impacts than in previous bull markets. Does that mean we should expect different altcoin trends this time? To some extent. Neither should we blindly follow the pattern of the previous year. The question is not whether altcoin season will happen, but when it will happen and how it will differ from previous years. Fasten the buckle.