tinderbox explodes
In some ways, it is strange and unbelievable that Israel, a country facing an existential crisis, should experience a second surprise in the same place in 50 years. On Yom Kippur, October 7, 1973, Egyptian and Syrian regular forces attacked Israel by surprise. To commemorate the day, Gaza-based Hamas carried out a brutal and violent attack that broke through Israel’s seemingly impenetrable barrier. The Hamas attackers were well-equipped, armed, and mobile, and appeared to know where to go to take their quarry.
In about six hours, Hamas massacred more than 1,200 men, women and children, including 46 Americans and nationals of more than 30 countries, and kidnapped more than 250 men and women. The massacre was horrifying for all to see, and the intelligence failures made headlines on channels, media, and political opposition.
Meanwhile, it seemed inexplicable that Israel’s vaunted defense system, known for its ability to react quickly and forcefully, remained paralyzed during the Hamas violence spree. The Israeli Air Force did not fly, and anti-terrorist forces did not appear. There were no drones flying. The immediate narrative was that Hamas was able to carry out the horrific attack because the security services were caught napping. But somehow this common belief of a complete intelligence defect seemed unrealistic. To many, it appeared as if the nation of Israel had disappeared. No one knows what happened.
It is not easy to accept that the entire Israeli security system (Mossad, Aman, Shin Bess) had no information whatsoever about the large-scale attack that Hamas was planning. Intelligence agencies do not act on their intelligence, especially when foreign powers are involved or when the counterattack is outside its borders. There were also political decisions not to accept the intelligence agencies’ and defense forces’ assessments. Intelligence is ignored and sometimes even falsified. Even if that appears to be the case, it would be unfair to conclude that the inaction was due to intelligence failure.
The relationship between the United States and Israel is very close, and intelligence services of both countries continue to exchange information. The vast U.S. intelligence community, made up of 17 agencies including the NSA and CIA, uses a multibillion-dollar budget to closely cover the volatile region of the Middle East, especially around Israel. Earlier this summer, U.S. authorities issued a travel advisory to their citizens living in Russia, warning of an impending terrorist attack in Moscow. The government issued no such warning to American citizens living in Israel ahead of the October 7 attack. It is unclear whether they had information about Hamas’ plans and shared it with the Israelis. Neither did the British.
Also, remember that the Egyptians passed on some information to the Israelites, but it was probably discarded or not very specific. Does this mean that American, British, and Israeli intelligence agencies were all blinded at the same time? It is difficult to accept that the world’s best intelligence agencies were blinded at the same time.
So it may have been a political decision to reduce the security presence on the border for several months, to feign indecision and discord, and to draw Hamas into Israel by being slow to react when it took the bait. It is thought that there is. Hamas’ actions created a pertinent narrative in which Israel would fight back relentlessly until Hamas across Gaza was physically and completely destroyed.
Israel needed a strong enough narrative to strike back, attacking hospitals, schools, and other public buildings that Hamas used as weapons depots and cover for its chain of command. Merely launching a pre-emptive strike against Hamas in Gaza is insufficient as a deterrent. Hamas will continue to fight back against them. The tenet of Israeli security policy must have been that Hamas must be completely destroyed.
Presumably, the Israelis have long had information about Hamas’s use of the hospital as an armory and headquarters, as well as the various tunnels it has built. Former Prime Minister Ehud Barak pointed out that although the al-Shifa hospital bunker was built by Israelis, it was well known that it had been used as a command post for many years. Tunnels running north-south were the most deadly to Israel. To destroy them, it was necessary to attack hospitals, schools, etc. To do that, we need a story, and the Hamas genocide has become a much-needed story. Perhaps the scale of Hamas’ atrocities was surprising.
A reshaped Middle East
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Hamas have had a long and tortuous relationship since he first became prime minister after narrowly defeating Shimon Peres in 1996. Prime Minister Netanyahu (prime minister since 2009) stressed on NPR (national radio) in November 2023 that Israel needs to eliminate Hamas to avoid further disaster. “But after we defeat Hamas, we must make sure that there is no new Hamas or a resurgence of terrorism.” This was his theme. When Prime Minister Netanyahu returned to power in 2009, Israeli media reported that his policy was to keep Hamas alive in order to maintain his rule. Qatar began funding Hamas in 2012, and Prime Minister Netanyahu started doing so in 2018 despite opposition from security services, with $30 million in cash passing through the Rafah crossing every month until October 2023. It was apparently done to undermine the Palestinian Authority, but it worked. different.
Ultimately, Yahya Sinwar, who had planned the attack, became the first Hamas leader to be killed by Israelis. The Israelis began targeting Hezbollah as well as Hamas leaders. The leaders, including Ismail Haniyeh, were assassinated in July 2024 while in Tehran as a state guest. Haniya was visiting Iran to attend the swearing-in ceremony of Iran’s new president and was a state guest. Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah was killed in Beirut in September. Previously, Hezbollah founding member Fuad Shukr was killed in an airstrike in July. In March, an airstrike killed Marwan Issa, a senior Hamas military commander who was closely involved in Hamas’ plans for October. In July, a major Israeli airstrike killed Sinwar’s close aide Mohammed Deif after several failed attempts. Quite clearly, Israeli intelligence and defense forces had special intelligence and capabilities to eliminate the target, thereby reestablishing their professional credentials.
Until then, Israel had only retaliated in the Gaza Strip, and its response was seen as part of a larger retaliation against Hamas. As attacks spread to Lebanon and Hezbollah, with occasional strikes against Iran and then the Houthis in Yemen, it meant there was a larger strategy.
The war is now a fight to the end. Hezbollah was defeated in Lebanon and Syria was defeated by the Islamic terrorist group. This is very similar to the pattern of ISIS in Iraq in 2014. It’s clearly a simultaneous attack by Islamist terrorists with Turkey, Israel, and the United States, and it certainly remains benign. eye puts the “failure” of October 7th into a different context.
The Israeli Air Force decimated the Syrian Air Force, and the Army captured more territory in the Golan Heights. A regime change occurred in Syria, and the new ruler was the Islamic terrorist Abu Mohammed al-Jolani. Despite having a $10 million bounty on his head and being known as a terrorist, Turkey, the United States, and Israel helped him establish a terrorist government in Damascus. At one stage, one could even conclude that this is another proxy multilateral Islamic force organized by the United States after the successful deal with the Afghan Mujahideen against the Soviet Union. The Taliban, al-Qaeda, and ISIS were also later incarnations of the same theme.
long shadow of history
To control the flow of oil and the geopolitics of the Middle East, US involvement since World War II has included installing autocrats and monarchs who toe the US line. When leaders like Saddam Hussein and Muammar Gaddafi lost support or adopted their own ideas, they were removed and replaced. Numerous regime changes supported the Forever War, which promoted America’s economic and strategic interests. This region has traditionally been important in containing Russia south of the caucus, and China’s sphere of influence has recently expanded.
America’s activities in the Middle East were no accident. Former NATO commander General Wesley Clark learned shortly after 9/11 that the United States planned to take control of seven countries in the Middle East as part of a grand five-year plan. These were Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, Libya, Somalia, Sudan, and Iran. The plans of the six countries have been carried out and only Iran remains. Neoconservative hardliners have been active since the collapse of the Soviet Union.
Renowned author and columnist William Pfaff wrote in 2005 that the State Department would create a new Office of Reconstruction and Stability to organize the reconstruction of countries where the United States determined it needed to intervene to transform their markets. It is said that it was established. Democracy. The agency placed 25 countries under surveillance as candidates for the dismantling of the Pentagon and subsequent restructuring of the State Department. In any case, the US economy has recovered.
There are just as many outside forces in Syria adding to the problem, and today there are disparate rebel groups masquerading as liberators. U.S. support for Israel has enabled an aggressive posture in the region. For now, Russia and Iran are on the sidelines. Turkey sides with rebel groups, including al-Qaeda/ISIS clones like HTS, with well-known views on the supremacy of Islam. The Free Syrian Army is supported by Western countries, Türkiye and Gulf states. The Syrian National Army is also supported by Turkey, other al-Qaeda affiliates, Salafists, Uyghurs from the Turkestan Islamic Party, some Iranian-backed militias, and Kurdish and related groups.
In a recent interview with a Lebanese channel, one of HTS’s spokespeople, Al-Jadeed, clarified that women have a very limited role in the governance and social system. The currently favored Islamist group, HTS, could morph into something else for use elsewhere as an extension of global jihad, as it once did. The similarities between Afghanistan Jihad and the Taliban are clear. The Pakistani Taliban and al-Qaeda are examples of how Islamist groups morph.
Remember, Osama bin Laden was an old ally during the Afghanistan war and helped build tunnels in Ghost of Afghanistan until he turned villainous in 2001. Immediately after Osama was killed in 2011, his successor, Zawahiri, appeared to be at the mercy of the US. This prompted Jake Sullivan, Hillary Clinton’s foreign policy adviser, to gleefully tell her in February 2012 that Al Qaeda was on her side in Syria. The emergence of ISIS in Iraq and Syria in 2014 was a sudden fusion, and al-Qaeda has morphed into al-Nusra in the past.
As with past changes in the Middle East, we will have to see how different alignments and loyalties play out in Syria. American interests gave the world the first Islamic Jihad in Afghanistan and later Islamic extremist militias like the Taliban. Any transaction involving joint operations with terrorist/insurgent organizations has significant implications. It justifies terrorist organizations. It serves as an inspiration. It provides resilience to other terrorists who can close deals.
For now, secularism in Syria is dead. Its future is uncertain and minorities within the country are not safe. The choice may be between Al-Aqsa and the Western Wall. As Israel expands its influence in Syria, President Erdogan has already spoken of Jerusalem as “their city.” This new Syria-based jihadist conglomerate could later be leveraged elsewhere, including in Central Asia. Jolani may look dapper in his tie and blazer these days, but he is still a radical Islamist who believes in ultimate world domination by Islam and is willing to fight for that goal. They operate primarily thousands of miles from the mainland United States.
Obviously, the world has not yet heard the final information about Syria, and Iran has not yet heard the final information. As the year draws to a close, there are a number of wars in Ukraine, Israel, Lebanon, Syria and Yemen, with Islamic extremists clearly emerging victorious, and in the Middle East, Turkey and Israel may face off in Syria. Chaos seems to be the strategy of world powers.
Welcome to 2025.
The author is a former director of the Research and Analysis Wing (R&AW) and an advisor to the Observer Research Foundation, an independent public policy think tank in New Delhi. The views expressed in the article above are personal and solely those of the author. They do not necessarily reflect the views of Firstpost.
