Beirut, Lebanon – The new president. new prime minister. And there is also a sense that Hezbollah, perhaps the most powerful group in the country, is weakening.
The past few weeks have been potentially transformative for Lebanon, especially when viewed in the context of a political system that often appears frozen.
While this development is cause for celebration among many Lebanese, it may also lead to questions about the political class as a whole, including Hezbollah.
Hezbollah, a Shiite political group and militia, has ruled Lebanon for much of the past two decades. However, in the past few months, the country has lost most of its senior leaders, including leader Hassan Nasrallah, in the war with Israel, and has since suffered a number of challenges, including the collapse of Syria’s Bashar al-Assad regime, a staunch ally. has suffered setbacks. .
“Hezbollah still has legitimacy,” Lebanese political researcher Ziad Majed told Al Jazeera. “The Lebanese Party, like other political parties, will have to accept that it is, and will continue to be, a strong Lebanese party that is not responsible for war and peace decisions.”
Hezbollah: “Hand cut off”
Hezbollah supported Joseph Aoun in the second round of voting on January 9, helping him win the necessary number of votes to become president. However, the group had planned to support incumbent Najib Mikati in the January 13 prime ministerial vote, but subsequently withdrew. Nawaf Salam, former president of the International Court of Justice, has been declared the winner.
Mohammad Ra’ad, a member of Hezbollah’s parliament, said that Hezbollah reached out to the people by voting for Aoun, but with Salam’s nomination, that “hand was cut short.”
The Iranian-backed group feels that many of its opponents in the government are capitalizing on losses suffered in Israel’s war against Lebanon.
But in his first speech as prime minister-elect, Salam promised to unite the Lebanese people and spoke about issues that deeply affect the Shiite community after Israel’s war in Lebanon. Israel’s attacks on Lebanon have focused primarily on areas with large Shiite populations, including southern Lebanon, much of the Bekaa Valley, and a wide range of areas, even in areas where many locals say there is no Hezbollah military infrastructure or fighters. It includes a suburb of Beirut called Dahieh.
Similar to Aoun’s speech a few days ago, Salam said that Israeli forces would withdraw “from the last occupied areas of (Lebanese) land” and that efforts would be made to ensure that areas affected by Israel’s devastating attacks are rebuilt. said.
“Reconstruction is not just a promise, it’s a promise,” he said.
“He is smart enough to find the right way to be inclusive,” Karim Emir Bitar, a professor of international relations at St. Joseph’s University in Beirut, told Al Jazeera. “I don’t think he will exclude Shiite voters from participating in government and nation-building, but this is a decision that Shiite parties should make.”
However, Hezbollah is in a precarious position. For years, Hezbollah and its allies had enough political and military influence to block decisions they opposed, including the formation of a government that did not meet their needs. One of the most well-known examples of Hezbollah’s power was when Hezbollah took control of Beirut in May 2008 after the Lebanese government ordered the dismantling of the group’s civilian communications network, forcing state authorities to retreat. This involved deploying fighters to the streets.
But the collapse of Syria’s al-Assad regime has made weapons more difficult to obtain and left the group without a key regional ally.
monopoly on weapons
Under the terms of the ceasefire with Israel, Hezbollah is to move north of the Litani River, which runs through southern Lebanon from north of Tire in the west to just south of Marjayoun in the east, and the Lebanese army is to be deployed to the south. are. Lebanon after Israeli forces withdrew from the territory.
Hezbollah insists military infrastructure should only be removed from the south, but Israel recently attacked targets in northern Litani that it claims are linked to Hezbollah. But Israeli and U.S. officials, as well as some Lebanese officials, say Hezbollah’s military infrastructure should be targeted everywhere in Lebanon. This leaves open the question of whether all parties have the same understanding of the ceasefire.
Both Mr. Aoun and Mr. Salam spoke of the state’s monopoly on weapons and deployment in southern Lebanon, a clear message to Hezbollah that its military dominance may be over.
Whether Hezbollah accepts it is another matter. On Saturday, Hezbollah Secretary-General Naim Qasem warned that Hezbollah must be included in the next government.
“No one can exclude us from effective and influential political participation in Lebanon, because we are a fundamental element of its constitution and reconstruction,” Qasem said, adding: He added that no force “can exploit Lebanon’s results domestically.” Because (Israel’s) invasion, the political path is different from the situation of resistance (Hezbollah). ”
Lebanon’s new leaders have ensured that Israel withdraws every centimeter from southern Lebanon and rebuild destroyed homes and villages in what analysts believe is an effort to reach out to the Shiite community. promised.
Hezbollah is under pressure from the Bekaa Valley and Dahiyeh constituencies in the south to rebuild homes and livelihoods. For that to happen, Lebanon will need international aid, analysts said. This could lead Hezbollah to accept Lebanon’s new political direction for the time being.
“Either[Hezbollah]allows reconstruction to take place in a state-led manner and with sufficient legitimacy from willing (Arab) Gulf donors, or it will not happen. ” said Director General Nadim Ouuri. said a member of the Arab Reform Initiative.
And despite rhetoric from some, there are signs that Hezbollah may be open to a more conciliatory path, at least in the short term.
Qassem Kassir, a political analyst close to Hezbollah, told Al Jazeera: “The important thing is to rebuild state institutions, achieve political, financial and economic reforms, implement the ceasefire agreement and follow up on the implementation of the Taif agreement. That’s what I do.” The 1989 agreement was enacted to end Lebanon’s 15-year civil war. “The issue of confronting Israel’s enemies is one of our priorities.”
Salam’s new hope
Mr. Aoun’s alliance with Mr. Salam signals a shift away from Lebanon’s traditional political power bloc, and the billionaire prime minister profiles of Mr. Salam’s predecessors, including Saad Hariri and current interim prime minister Mikati. It suggests a departure from.
Many Lebanese said Salam’s appointment as prime minister in particular was a boon for the country and hopes for reform.
“I have high hopes,” said Dalal Mawad, a Lebanese journalist and author who looks up to Salam as a mentor. “He embodies the justice, accountability and rule of law that we want in Lebanon.”
“What we can say is that the appointment of Nawaf Salam definitely bodes well for the future of Lebanon,” Bitar said. “Most Lebanese are feeling optimistic for the first time in decades, or at least since 2019.”
Salam’s name first started being mooted as a candidate for prime minister shortly after the large-scale protests that erupted on October 17, 2019. Although he comes from a prominent political family, Salam’s relatives include former prime ministers Saeb Salam and Tammam, and he is widely seen as one of the following: Salam – outside the traditional political oligarchy.
In his first speech as prime minister-elect, Salam spoke of building a “modern, civil and just nation.”
He also spoke of achieving “justice, security, progress and opportunity.”
He spoke in particular about justice for the victims of the Beirut port explosion on August 4, 2020, and the 2019 banking crisis, where depositors were suddenly deprived of access to their funds and neither authorities nor banks were held accountable. spoke.
Lebanese media reported on Tuesday that an investigation into the bombing, which had been stalled by Lebanese political groups including Hezbollah, would soon be restarted.
A difficult future ahead
Despite many people’s focus on Hezbollah, all of Lebanon’s most powerful political parties use the system to avoid accountability or block opposing political agendas. .
The next challenge for Aoun and Salam will be to implement their manifesto in the face of a political system built on sectarianism.
Lebanon’s sectarian system “needs a new approach,” Majed said, adding that Lebanon needs state institutions and a monopoly on armed violence and “a strategy to protect Lebanon from actual Israeli hostilities.” Ta.
Under its current sectarian system, Lebanon is run by a small number of political parties and leaders with strong support and control over state institutions. These leaders across Lebanon’s religious sects are accused of using these resources and political power to build patronage networks and hold the people accountable rather than the state.
These powers are entrenched in their positions and resist change.
Hilal Kashan, a political scientist at the American University of Beirut and a former colleague of Salam’s, told Al Jazeera: “We need fundamental structural reforms to the Lebanese political system, but we don’t know if that is possible.” told.
Rooting out deeply entrenched corruption and clientelism requires more than just appointing strong or new leaders to positions of power. Salam, for example, is not the first technocrat to play an important role in Lebanon.
“The difference is that in the past, technocrats came to power when the political class wanted to procrastinate,” Woolley said. “They were never convened with a legitimacy that relied on the political class, so they had neither the capacity nor the support to implement most of the reforms.”
But today, Lebanon’s myriad crises mean that the political class understands that some reforms must take place, even if it is likely to continue to oppose regime change.
Mr. Salam and Mr. Aoun must address issues of economic stability, security, and national dialogue, while managing foreign relations, including Israeli aggression, without isolating any community. The set of issues to be addressed is long and difficult.
But analysts said Salam and Aoun had a unique opportunity. The collapse of the al-Assad regime, which had constantly meddled in Lebanon’s affairs, the weakening of Iran, and the international community’s willingness to provide foreign aid and support Lebanon’s new leadership created support for a reform agenda that was not previously present. It means that there is. There.
Even with positive conditions, confronting Lebanon’s deeply entrenched and resilient political class will remain an arduous endeavor. Many analysts said they were positive about Salam’s appointment but had doubts about whether someone could uproot Lebanon’s political system.
Still, Kashan said Salam is “the right person for this time.”
