As the counter-invasion into Kiev marks five months this week, Ukrainian forces have launched a new surprise attack inside Russia, expanding the Kursk salient north and east.
Geolocation footage showed Ukrainian troops moving from their base in Suzha towards Berdin, occupying fields and entering settlements on Sunday.
By Monday, Ukrainian forces had also captured the settlements of Ruskoye Porechnoye and Novosotnitsky. All three settlements are located on the main road between Suzha and Kursk, the regional capital.
Russian military bloggers said Ukrainian forces also captured the settlements of Martynovka, Cherkaskoye Porechnoye and Mikhailovka.
Russian bloggers reported that Ukrainian forces advanced in three waves using company-sized attacks supported by armored vehicles.
One reason for their success appears to be their effective use of electronic warfare.
“Our drones are still unable to do anything because the enemy’s electronic warfare (electronic warfare) is literally nailed to the ground,” the reporter wrote.
The Ukrainian military also appears to have used the High Mobility Military Rocket System (HIMARS) to intercept Russian reinforcements.
“As in August, the enemy is actively concealing its offensive actions with the HIMARS attack,” the Russian reporter wrote. “He’s going to knock out our proper reservists, our artillery, our drone operators.”
The explosion was reported at the aviation technical base in Kursk, about 70 kilometers from the occupied Ukrainian territory. The Kursk Military Operations Center claims to have shot down several Ukrainian missiles and suggests it has destroyed others.
“Reports that the Ukrainian military is using long-range artillery fire to interdict Russia’s rear areas and supporting Ukrainian mechanized advances with electronic warfare to degrade Russian drones,” “This shows that the military is adopting more effective combined arms tactics,” the research institute wrote. of War, a think tank based in Washington.
In addition to missiles, Ukraine also uses independently developed long-range drones to attack Russian energy assets. On Saturday, a Ukrainian drone crashed into a gas condensate transshipment terminal at the port of Ustiluga near Leningrad, causing a massive fire.
Ukrainian officials have cited a number of reasons for their pushback, chief among them being the capture of tens of thousands of Russian military personnel who would otherwise have attacked Ukrainian soil.
“The Russian army has deployed powerful forces in the Kursk region, where North Korean soldiers are involved. It is important that the occupiers at the moment direct all of this force in other directions, especially in Donetsk, Sumy and Kharkov. , which means they cannot be directed to the Zaporizhzhya region,” Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said in a speech Monday night.
“Since the beginning of Operation Kursk, the enemy has already lost more than 38,000 troops in this region alone, including around 15,000 irrecoverable losses,” he said. said.
The General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces published a list of Russian military equipment destroyed in Kursk, including 104 tanks, 575 armored fighting vehicles, more than 1,000 other vehicles and 330 artillery systems. .
Ukraine also said it had captured 860 Russians in Kursk and exchanged them for its own prisoners.
Does the Russian army have a shortage of tanks?
Although Russia has been able to replenish troops, its ability to replenish equipment is less certain.
Ukraine’s Ministry of Defense estimates that in 2024, the country’s military destroyed 3,689 Russian tanks, 8,956 armored fighting vehicles, and more than 13,000 artillery pieces. The Ukrainian Navy said it had sunk five ships and 458 small craft.
Russia continues to pull Soviet armor out of storage and refurbish it for combat. It’s unclear how long that can continue.
Those who monitored Russian equipment estimated that Russia had about 48 percent of its tanks remaining, and a similar percentage of its armored fighting vehicles, but satellite images showed that a significant portion of them It was suggested that the condition was so poor that it could not be used.
A year ago, the London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies estimated that Russia had two to three years’ worth of armor left.
A series of Russian attacks on Ukrainian positions last week also raised questions about Russia’s armor.
Russian forces have concentrated much of their manpower and firepower in the twin settlements of Pokrovsk and Mirnohrad in Donetsk region, and on Friday launched 26 attacks along a front 45 kilometers (30 miles) to the south.
“Intense fighting continues across the entire front, with the heaviest battles occurring near Pokrovsk,” President Zelenskiy said in a speech Saturday night.
On Tuesday, 41 of the 176 battles across the front occurred in the region.
At its closest point, Russian forces hold positions just 1.5 kilometers (1 mile) from Pokrovsk, where 7,300 civilians reportedly still live and work.
“The intensity of the fighting has changed and become even bigger. Now opposite us is another motorized rifle brigade and motorized rifle regiment of the Russian Federation,” said Serhiy Okishev of the 25th Independent Airborne Brigade fighting in the Pokrovsk region. Sgt. told Telethon.
But he noted that the Russian military is using fewer armored vehicles and more strollers, golf carts and civilian vehicles. It is unclear whether this is due to a lack of armor in Russian weapons or to their maneuverability.
Ukrainian military spokesman Krahov also said on Friday: “In the past few weeks, the Russian army has switched to attacks using only infantry, and when armored vehicles are used, they only provide fire support and do not take part in the attacks themselves.” . ”
“The Russians are so afraid of our anti-tank missile systems that they keep their armored vehicles as far away as possible.”
Ukraine invests in long-range unmanned systems
Ukraine has invested heavily in its defense industry over the past year, particularly in various types of unmanned systems, and is developing innovative tactics.
Ukraine’s military intelligence agency told Ukrainian news agency TSN on Monday that the country’s Magura V maritime drone shot down not one but two Russian Mi8 helicopters over the Black Sea on December 31.
The attack occurred near Cape Tarkankut, 15 kilometers (10 miles) from Sevastopol.
Military Intelligence Unit 13, which is in charge of operating the Magura surface drone, set a trap for Russian aviation, which was tasked with finding and destroying the naval drone as soon as it was spotted. “In this special operation, there was no mission to hide from aviation as usual. We specifically went to search for air targets,” said an anonymous source.
Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Shirsky said the armed forces were “increasing the number of brigades with enhanced unmanned components” and creating a separate brigade for unmanned systems.
“In December as a whole, operators of the Armed Forces of Ukraine attacked more than 54,000 enemy targets. Almost half of this result, 49 percent, was carried out by kamikaze drones,” he wrote on social media.
Ukraine’s Prime Minister Denis Shmyal announced Friday that Ukraine plans to build about 3,000 cruise and unmanned missiles this year, as well as at least 30,000 long-range drones.
“As part of the ‘Weapons of Victory’ project, we will begin long-term contracts of three to five years with manufacturers. We will pay special attention to long-range components and missile programs,” Shmyal said.
The drone and missile programs were part of a plan to expand Ukraine’s defense industrial capacity from an estimated $7 billion to about $30 billion in 2024.
US President-elect Donald Trump has promised to end the war by the end of this year, raising the possibility that the conflict along current fronts will be frozen.
Asked whether Ukraine would be prepared to host a multinational European peacekeeping force, President Zelenskiy praised France for raising the possibility, but this is part of the deal that will bring Ukraine into NATO. I made it clear that it should be.
“It should definitely be on the way to NATO. This does not mean that the deployment of European forces excludes the future to NATO,” Zelenskiy said. “We see that Mr. Trump is open to this idea.”
