Orders have returned to the concept of the Reagan era, where many physicists are unable to execute due to sensitivity to countermeasures.
President Donald Trump is promoting the creation of a missile defense shield that can protect the United States from “foreign air attacks,” including ballots and hole missiles. an Presidential order Pete Hegoses, the Secretary of Defense, released on Monday, instructs the implementation plan within 60 days, including the more than 60 days, including a space -based exercise intercepter.
This order does not protect all -scale attacks from large -scale countries such as Russia and China, but focuses on preventing relatively small attacks from countries such as North Korea and Iran. It represents the change in the earthquake of the US missile defense policy.
Trump’s order referred to the Reagan administration’s efforts to build a space -based missile defense system, and stated that “it brought many technical progress”, but “was canceled before the goal was realized.” 。 A similar concept continued George HW Bush And recently rose meeting 2016. Trump also called for significantly expanding missile defense During his first term, However, before he resigned, the proposal did not get much traction.
The critic of Reagan’s program called it “Star Wars” and believed that it could not be achieved. Since the announcement of Reagan’s 1983 program in 1983, called Strategic Defense Initiative, in multiple studies, the space -based missile defensive interceptor and laser are not executed due to its size, cost, and sensitivity to countermeasures. I concluded that there was. For these research, American Physical Society Report From 1987 Another APS report Congress has been required since 2004 National Academy Report From 2012 (APS is AIP member sosasty.)
The main concept of space -based missile defense is an interceptor disguised as a normal satellite. These interceptors monitor the missile launch site, and use a rocket engine to collide with missiles in the case of launch. The appeal of ground -based space -based missile defense is the proximity of the system to the launched missile, which can reach the missile in the “boost phase” immediately after firing, and confuses the missile defense system. Prevents use of.
However, various analysts are expensive for such interceptor systems due to the redundancy of redundancy necessary to confirm that redundancy in orbit is the range of any target. I claim.
Union of concerns scientists Estimation In 2018, the United States will need 300-400 interceptors to cover North Korea. According to the 2012 National Academies Report, the cost of an interceptor system against North Korea is about $ 300 billion. Other organizations have a slightly lower estimation. The International Strategy Research Institute has set up a quote for a system against North Korea. More than $ 100 billion In 2019, the Strategy and International Research Center estimated that the global protection system would be costly. $ 67 billion to $ 109 billion 2017.
Trump’s order also refers to the “non -kinic function” that can include a concept of a space -based X -ray laser that has obtained an idea at the Lawrence Liva More National Institute during the Reagan administration.
Frank Von Hippel, a senior research physicist at the Princeton University and a co -founder of the Physiologists to reduce nuclear threats, needs hundreds of millions of dollars to use lasers. He stated that he was a co -founder of the Physics Association.
On the other hand, some analysts have stated that recent reduction of launch costs may make space -based missile defense economically executed. In 2018, at that time, Secretary of Defense Michael Griffin for research and engineering I said The cost of a 1,000 interceptor is about $ 20 billion.
At an event related to nuclear missile deterrence in January, Former Defense Ministry Robert Soufer pointed out Griffin’s comment as evidence that the space -based interceptor is not distant. “It was four years ago. Given the SpaceX Exploit and the abilities of hundreds of abilities, even if the relatively cheap satellite is not thousands of satellites. But we don’t know, “said Soofer. He advocated the United States to build missile defense against more types of attacks, but did not seek as comprehensive systems as Trump proposed.
In an interview, MIT’s science, technology, and international security physicists and professors, Theodore Postle, seeing SPACEX’s important innovation of rockets and making objects can easily emit objects into low earth tracks. I acknowledged it. However, these engines lack the thrusts needed to destroy the missile that the interceptor leaves the track.
“Interpetters will be restricted unless someone can come up with a completely different propulsion from what someone knows,” said Postol. “You can explain all kinds of innovation in the rocket, but it’s important, but none of them change the basic equation.”
Even if it is achieved, the current ideas of the cosmic defense system can be easily accommodated, and some experts are maintained. David Wright, a research affiliate of MIT nuclear security and policy labs, can easily track interceptor from the ground and start attacking when the interceptor is out of range, or the interceptor itself. He stated that he could predict to attack. Von Hippel can easily destroy the space -based laser in the front track.
Some scientists argue that building a missile defense system with all abilities will encourage only the nuclear accumulation of hostile countries. “It looks like Russia and China are already building new types of weapons for the purpose of defeating and avoiding missile defense,” said Laura, a research director of the Federation of Related Scientists.・ Gregga is statement About Trump’s order.
“It’s basically all kitchen sinks, and I’m back to Reagan’s idea,” I want to be able to protect myself from all kinds of attacks. ” And it is a very attractive image, “Light said about Trump’s order. “I have to re -learn these basic lessons as if I felt like I saw this process many times, and how difficult it would be when people were trying to solve physics problems. Not, you are trying to do it.
