Last week, the United States President Donald Trump signed a Presidential order to the Ministry of Defense to build a “iron dome” missile defense shield in the United States. Almost immediately, some experts have expressed skepticism, compared to the unreasonable “Star Wars” plan of former Ronal Dragan in the 1980s, and whether they can design perfect missile shields in such a large country. I questioned the following.
But Trump is correct. A missile defense system in the United States is technically possible and needed to protect the country from the 21st century threat.
Superat consensus In the United States, its home country’s missile defense policy has been focusing on a system that can defend limited threats from North Korea. And as the scope of the missile increased, it probably focused on the scope of Iran in the future. Therefore, the US has deployed 44 Ground Interceptors (GBIs) in California and Alaska. The interceptor is a technical feat that is compared to hitting bullets with bullet, and is designed to crash directly on enemy attack missiles.
The 44 interceptors may be enough to handle the little salvos of Rogue States, but they will easily be overwhelmed by the bigger attacks. Furthermore, current systems are designed for ballistic missiles and do not have a wide range of 21st century threats. This contains conventional nuclear and nuclear weapons cruises and parodal stem missiles.
Washington has long ablated missile defenses against major powers like China and Russia, and has argued that instead they should resort to nuclear deterrence to prevent attacks from these fellow enemies. Supporters of this view argue that accepting mutual vulnerability creates “strategic stability” because they understand that both sides cannot lose from major wars. They argue that deploying strategic missile defenses could be “destabilizing.”
Fearing that US missile defense could halt nuclear deterrents, enemies could compete to build enough missiles to overwhelm US defenses. Worse, they may be afraid that a strong defense will give America the first strike option. The enemy seduces the first strike in a crisis or war before the missile is wiped out.
Unfortunately, this approach simply making US homeland vulnerable to enemy strategic attacks has not led to stability. On the contrary, Russia, backed by nuclear enforcement, launched the largest land war in Europe since World War II. Meanwhile, China has begun its largest accumulation of nuclear weapons from the height of the Cold War, harassing US allies and partners in the Indo-Pacific every day, threatening its military power to take over Taiwan 。
Furthermore, Moscow and Beijing do not appear to have obtained a memo that the construction of missile defense systems is unstable. They have built both and are now modernizing their air and missile defense systems to protect their homeland from attacks.
At the same time, both authorities have built various advanced attack missiles that bring important threats to the United States. In short, the current approach is not working, and Washington needs to take action to protect itself and restore strategic deterrence globally.
Need for missile defense It will become clear whether we imagine a great war with Taiwan. Take this scenario: China invades Taiwan, and the US mobilizes its troops to come to the island’s defense. China will then launch 20 traditional polar and cruise missiles at US bases and cities in Guam, Hawaii, California and Texas.
Given that current US systems are designed for the limited ballistic missile threat, they reach the intended target, if not all, if not all, of these missiles; Considering to hit. Washington’s ability to advance its strength in the defense of its allies will deteriorate, and the US president may decide to simply retreat rather than risk further losses of American life.
However, as a policy issue, it makes no sense to make your homeland vulnerable to this type of attack. After all, the first and most important concern for the US president is protecting his homeland.
Developing iron domes for the US can defeat this type of attack.
It may be impossible to build a perfect system that can stop large-scale attacks with hundreds or thousands of Russian or Chinese nuclear-armed missiles, but now Washington is a major player, such as military bases. To protect your site, you need to design a more limited system. Critical infrastructure and the capital area. Such a system removes America’s juicy targets from the table for enemy attacks.
Such defense can also help prevent enemy attacks in the first place. If you know that China and Russia are likely to be downloaded, they will face the choice of growing or returning home. Starting a large -scale attack on the United States may increase to a major nuclear war. This threatens the leaders, nuclear troops, the army, and the war support industry, giving you a justifiable reason not to attack the enemy at all.
In addition to defense and deterrenceThe iron dome for the US will contribute to the assurance of the Allies. For example, South Korean officials and experts asked me if the US did not want to be in crisis and protect Seoul as it would become more vulnerable to missile threats.
Due to the lack of guarantees from the US, South Korean leaders have made problems in their own hands, such as building their own nuclear weapons and sparking the nuclear weapons race in Asia, doing things that go against our interests. I was able to choose to pass it on. Meanwhile, the US iron dome system assures allies that Washington can help defend it and at the same time protect its homeland.
The logic of the US iron dome is very powerful and is becoming a new super -party consensus. The 2023 final report of the 12-person Bipartisan Congressional Committee on the Strategic Astronomy of the United States (the committee I served) states that
For decades, critics have argued that missile defense does not work, but the fact has changed. In recent years, missile defense technology has been significantly improved. The world has witnessed the remarkable success of the Israelian iron dome system. This defended Israel against the massive salvos of Iranian missiles and drones in two attacks last year in April and October.
In the test, the current GBI success rate is about 50 %. In addition, you can shoot multiple interceptors with each missile that comes in and bring the possibility of intercepting to 100 %.
Hometown missile defense systems do not need to be perfect because they are effective. If there was a missile heading towards my house, I would have a 0% chance of successfully defending without missile shielding. And again, even the uncertain chance of success will contribute to enemy deterrence and allies.
Designers of the new US iron dome architecture must pursue layered defenses to maximize its effectiveness. As my colleague Rob Sufer wrote in his new Atlantic Council report, this should include an expanded set of interceptors, perhaps up to around 100. They can be strengthened by the SM-3S (missiles currently used in the US Ejis Theatre missile defense), terminal highland region defense missiles, and underlayers of cruise missile defense.
Finally, US missile defense should move to space. Trump’s new order directs the Pentagon to develop and deploy “proliferated, space-based interceptors.” The laws of geometry and physics mean it is easier to intercept missiles coming from space than from the ground.
Ground interceptors must attempt to launch incoming missiles either in the middle or in the descent stage if the missile is moving the fastest, potentially piloting and potentially disrupting the defender. It will not be blurred. Meanwhile, space-based interceptors can target missiles at their most vulnerable boost stages as they slowly fight upwards in predictable trajectories to escape Earth’s gravitational pull.
Reagan and his advisors understood this in the 1980s and urged them to imagine the original Star Wars system. They were ahead of their times, but technology is catching up. Elon Musk’s SpaceX significantly reduced space launch costs, making space-based sensor and interceptor growth systems viable and affordable. It cannot hit what’s invisible, and together with space-based sensor layers and underground, sea and air-based radar, it offers the best opportunity to detect incoming enemy missiles.
The Soviets feared that Moscow could not keep pace with Washington’s planned Star Wars system, leading to a peaceful conclusion of the First Cold War. And the United States is in a position to surpass China or Russia in the Second Cold War missile defense race.
Critics will argue that the iron dome for the United States has the risk of starting a new unstable weapon competition between China and Russia. The truth is that China and Russia are already competing, just as Washington sits on the sidelines.
Yes, it costs money to build an American iron dome, but it will be cheaper than future Chinese or Russian attacks on US hometown.
