Technology in 2025: Trends that will last and die

📌 Digital policy: a patchwork of interventions in the absence of specialized legislation

Due to the lack of formal legislation, non-legislative inputs into technology governance will continue to shape the policy environment in 2025. The Parliamentary Standing Committee on Finance recommended the need for a specialized digital competition law in 2022, and considered that vision to be partially realized. The Securities and Exchange Board of India recently released draft proposals to regulate unregistered financial influencers. Judicial intervention, exemplified by the Bombay High Court’s judgment against the fact-checking sector and the Delhi High Court’s observation that the government should start regulating deepfakes, adds to the policy matrix. This trend is expected to continue unless meaningful progress is made with respect to specific technology legislation.

📌 Separation of regulations for online and traditional media

Through the Broadcasting Services (Regulation) Bill, 2024, an integrated regulatory framework for digital and traditional media has been proposed. This was met with resistance from various stakeholders, leading to the withdrawal of the proposed framework and changes in strategy. Later this year, the focus has already shifted, with the Standing Committee scrutinizing OTT streaming content and other ministries tightening certain obligations on OTT platforms, such as those related to smoking and tobacco consumption. I was moving on to the approach. , Substance Abuse and Road Safety.

📌Current status of self-regulatory organizations

Self-regulatory organizations (SROs) need to increase their internal capacity and invest in institution-building to avoid adversity in 2025. India is turning to self-regulation in industries such as fintech and digital media to overcome state capacity constraints. As concerns about user safety and responsible business practices grow, SROs have their hands full. SROs must be proactive in proactively preventing operational issues and improving internal governance standards. Unless they are seen as promoting better standards in high-tech markets, the pendulum may swing back to state intervention and prescriptive regulation of micro-managers.

📌 DPI Giants, System Design and Operational Challenges

The Reserve Bank of India plans to scale up pilots of digital public infrastructure (DPI) such as the National Financial Information Registry (NFIR) and the Unified Lending Interface (ULI) in 2025. But the DPI story may face hurdles in areas such as data protection. , user safety, information security, market competition – these are all traditional challenges for this state-sponsored innovation ecosystem. NFIR and ULI will face severe challenges in 2025 until they can successfully integrate information and streamline the flow of credit across different types of borrowers. Similarly, account aggregators and other intermediary DPIs should also improve privacy and security by design.

📌 Investment incentives may be linked to employment goals

As the lifespan of several production-linked incentive (PLI) schemes nears an end in the next two years, the government may abolish some of them. PLI has had mixed success in the technology sector, with strong performance in mobile manufacturing contrasting with a lackluster performance in solar modules. Job creation has emerged as a key priority for the government following the 2024 general election, so it could become a prerequisite for eligibility in subsequent iterations. This change is already evident to some extent from discussions between the Ministry of Electronics and IT and the electronics industry on the PLI proposal for electronic components.

📌 India is unlikely to introduce an IT hardware quota system

India has introduced a mix of tariff and non-tariff barriers (NTBs) over the past decade to support domestic manufacturing. These include import monitoring systems, quotas and mandatory product certification regimes across sectors such as coal, steel, paper and IT hardware. While such measures are aimed at reducing dependence on foreign products and strengthening local manufacturing capacity, they also create challenges for global companies operating in India. Schemes such as the IT hardware import monitoring system, which was initially expected to evolve into an import quota system, have been extended until December 31, 2025. Historically, the Trump administration has threatened retaliation for tariffs imposed by India, and is expected to take similar action. During his second tenure. If the quota system is implemented, President Trump is likely to respond aggressively. In contrast, technical NTBs such as quality control orders and certification schemes for telecommunications equipment, which were hotly contested government measures in 2024, have no equivalent in the United States despite their association with US companies. escalation may not be seen. 1st year in office.

📌 Internal conflicts within global companies

India’s Preferential Market Access (PMA) policy is designed to increase domestic value added (DVA) by prioritizing market access for domestically manufactured products in public procurement. In 2024, the Ministry of Industry and Internal Trade Promotion revised the criteria for determining DVA, making compliance more stringent. At the same time, ministries such as the Ministry of Telecommunications have introduced higher DVA thresholds for certain products. This trend is expected to accelerate further in 2025. Public procurement is a key growth area for foreign companies and influences their business strategies when investing in India. Tightening local value-added standards and evolving PMA policies will complicate the business environment for foreign companies. While our nation’s business leaders champion the vast growth potential of the Indian market and advocate for increased local investment, global business leaders may remain reluctant even into 2025. Global companies are prioritizing profit per dollar and may question the feasibility of investing heavily in India given the rising regulatory hurdles. and uncertainty due to frequent changes in PMA policy.

📌 More competitive federalism in state technology policy

In 2025, more state-level policies will be introduced that provide financial incentives related to local value and job creation. States have already introduced policies to attract revenue in areas such as IT/ITeS, cloud, and film production. This ambition to attract investment into the new economy has led some to set policies for areas such as the Global Capability Center (GCC) and Animation, Visual Effects, Games and Comics – Augmented Reality (AVGC-XR). , is likely to expand further in 2025. Relationships related to fiscal decentralization/resource sharing may also encourage opposition-controlled countries to be more active in courting new economy industries. Only time will tell whether this will translate into increased momentum for private investment, but competitive federalism in the digital and technology sector is a positive outcome in itself.

📌 Telcos double down on efforts to ‘level the playing field’ with OTT services

Telcos will increase their calls for a level playing field with OTT services and adjacent industries in 2025. In 2024, carriers made several attempts to draw regulators’ attention to their competition. Examples include calls to impose network usage fees on OTT services, petitions for regulatory scrutiny of content delivery networks, and arguments against the allocation of spectrum to satellite communications services. Telcos are using economic arguments around OTTs that are allegedly free-riding on their networks and the unfair advantages enjoyed by unlicensed operators to say, “Same service, same We pushed forward with the discussion of “Rules”. Telcos have had little success with these attack methods, so they may change course in 2025.

The author is a policy expert at Koan Advisory