In 2011, Syrians erupted in protests demanding the ouster of President Bashar al-Assad, who responded with brutal force, sparking a civil war that killed more than 500,000 people. Thirteen years later, on December 8, President Assad fled the country and rebel fighters took over. So how did this historic event unfold?
The front lines of Syria’s civil war have been frozen for nearly eight years, with the Russian- and Iranian-backed Assad regime controlling much of the country and various rebel groups holding territory in the north and west.
On November 27, the Islamist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), which has controlled northwestern Idlib province for the past five years, captured 13 villages, including several strategic towns and government military bases. did. Within days, they captured Aleppo, Hama, Homs, the country’s second-largest city, and finally, with lightning speed, the capital Damascus.
The surprising success of HTS is believed to be due to the reduced presence of Russia and Iran in Syria, which have to deal with more important conflicts with Ukraine and Israel, respectively.
Observers have compared the occupation of Damascus to the collapse of Afghanistan’s democratic government, with regard to the way government forces surrendered without a fight.
Why didn’t they fight? Close observers of the region blame widespread corruption within the ranks and fatigue from a long civil war.
In a recent interview with CNN, HTS leader Abu Mohammad al-Julani said success was due to the introduction of a command structure and the training of fighters to operate as professional units, not just ideologically driven guerrillas. He said that.
President Assad, who has ruled Syria since 2000 and is in his family since 1970, reportedly departed on an Il-76 plane as HTS-led rebels advanced on the capital. Air tracking website Flightradar24 showed the plane stopped transmitting location data over the city of Holmes, near the Lebanese border, prompting speculation that he may have died.
What does the political equation look like in Syria now that Assad is gone?
Outside of the areas controlled by the Assad regime, many groups controlled different parts of the Arab state. The largest portion of the territory is controlled by the US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). Kurdish-controlled territory exists in the west and northwest.
In the north, bordering Turkey, the Ankara-backed Syrian National Army controls a larger area than that of HTS, which has al-Qaeda roots.
HTS, which controls Damascus, is now the most important force in Syria and is said to control areas controlled by the regime. But in a complex region like Syria, where armed groups have fought for control and influence, equality may not be so simple. The SDF seized control of Deir Ezzor from Assad’s forces. In the south, local militias took control of Suweida and Daraa.
The Syrian National Army has been fighting alongside HTS in this attack, but they have had conflicts in the past and have different interests.
What’s next?
The road ahead for the Syrian people is complex. However, the fact that HTS will become the central figure in all political power in Damascus is more certain.
Whether the SDF or the Turkish-backed Syrian National Army will join the HTS-led group to form a government of national unity is a question no one can answer at this point.
There is deep animosity between the three groups. For example, when HTS took over the city of Aleppo earlier this week, members of the Syrian National Army killed scores of people in SDF-held areas on the outskirts of Aleppo.
Syrian Prime Minister Ghazi al-Jalali said in a statement that he was ready to work with the rebels towards a peaceful transition of power. In a video circulating on social media, rebels were seen escorting him from the building to a car.
HTS leader Al Julani spoke of plans to create a government based on institutions and “a council elected by the people.” He vowed to protect minorities but insisted his rule would be based on Islamic principles.
Meanwhile, Reuters reported that Israel has reportedly attacked an airbase abandoned by regime forces in Damascus and Suweida, which has a large stockpile of rockets and missiles left behind by the Syrian army.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has directed the Israeli military to seize a buffer zone along the Syrian area of the Golan Heights to “strengthen Israel’s borders.” Israel occupies most of the Golan Heights.
