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The return of US President Donald Trump’s strong orders has trembled through several sectors, including the global space industry. President Trump’s election campaign and his upcoming presidency will cast a long shadow on the cosmic landscape. That shadow, like Trump, has brought their support behind their favourite leaders, as Elon Musk began targeting socialist governments in Europe, particularly Britain, Denmark and Germany. These powers in left and right partisan politics are far from superficial. There was a significant separation of transatlantic technical cooperation on the horizon, which has become a bipartisan understanding.
The crisis of native fertility rates, consistently high illegal immigration, vulnerable economic forecasts, declining technological competitiveness, high energy costs, and the fight to maintain European cultural identity.
Europe is seeking political autonomy. This perception comes as Europe faces an existential crisis. The crisis of native fertility rates, consistently high illegal immigration, vulnerable economic forecasts, declining technological competitiveness, high energy costs, and the fight to maintain European cultural identity. Furthermore, when President Trump takes the helm, all North Atlantic Treaty Organizations (NATO) members are being called to increase their defence spending to 5% of their respective GDP. Europe recognizes that it must be responsible for its security: Trump’s call, a good foreboding for Europe, has led to a surge in stock prices for European defense contractors.
Europe’s relentless push to expand NATO far beyond the Atlantic did not benefit from it. The Russian-Ukraine War was at risk for European cosmic ambitions. The motivation was to cancel Russia, but Europe ended its lucrative business contract for the launch of its One Web Satellite Constellations. India and the US both benefited from this. The European Space Agency has delayed the Exomars mission, which was supposed to be released on Russian Soyuz vehicles. Space cooperation of all sorts with Russia was shunned. Of course, Russia was influenced, but cancellations are boomeranged in Europe, particularly France, Germany, Italy, Spain and the Netherlands, with the most space industry employment in Europe in the same order. Of these countries, the European commercial space market was USD 38 billion, and was forced into Asians (USD 45 billion) and the US (USD 45 billion) (US market) and the space ecosystems of France, Italy and Germany has been particularly affected. 86 billion US$). It is facing today’s cathartic crisis. We are on the verge of losing our autonomy and competitiveness in the space domain.
The European Space Agency has delayed the Exomars mission, which was supposed to be released on Russian Soyuz vehicles. Space cooperation of all sorts with Russia was shunned.
Euro-centric supporters, including famous astronaut Thomas Pesquet, have been expressing concern over the loss of space autonomy in Europe for the past few years. The concern is valid as European space ecosystems are increasingly dependent on the US and are losing to the US by large margins. The Council of Europe was added to the existing EU Space Programme 2021-27 in May 2024. , financial and talent resources of indigenous European origins. However, this is easier than that. Europe has difficult paths.
EumetSat, the leading commercial operator of weather satellites, went to SpaceX to meet the launch needs, and therefore had no time to wait for the underdeveloped French Arian 6 launch vehicle. This raised a real surprise in Brussels. There, if Christophe Gurdler, a French member of the European Parliament, does not apply strict European preferences for satellite and spacecraft launches, Europe will have thousands of people in the space sector and its universe. I repeated that I had to abandon my work. “Strategic autonomy.”
It won’t stop there. EU countries are currently trapped in a dilemma with SpaceX’s Starlink service. Starlink is available commercially for public access to many EU countries. Still, most member states have a safe Starlink service for government and military use, and the European secure network IRIS2 satellite constellations that only occurred in the early 2030s and are now facing cost escalation. I find it increasingly difficult to choose between the two. This dilemma has once again rekindled the question of how difficult it is for EU members to work collectively on the autonomy of the universe. The call for autonomy is not a response to Russian, Chinese or India’s competitiveness. This is only directed at growing European dependency and lagging behind the US. This delay is not limited to EU or national projects, but also appears to be an ecosystem of commercial spaces.
The call for autonomy is not a response to Russian, Chinese or India’s competitiveness. This is only directed at growing European dependency and lagging behind the US.
Not only IRIS2, but also European efforts to establish satellite megaconcenters are shaking. Achieving last mile connections on both land and oceans has become a superpower’s goal. Maintaining constant connectivity to important installations of remote islands in the Arctic, Atlantic and Indo-Pacific during natural disasters and geopolitical events is a violently pursued goal in both China and the United States. In 2024, China began launching satellites of Qianfan and Guowang, some of the two different constellations. Guowang has 13,000 satellites, and Qianfan has 15,000 satellites planned within each constellation. Beijing claims that both of its constellations are designed to compete with the US Starlink constellations, which aim to deploy around 42,000 satellites.
The competition for low-earth orbital (LEO) satellite constellations between the US and China consists of two layers. The first layer fully occupies all possible orbital slots assigned to them, and fully occupies them through third countries. The second tier develops manufacturing capacity in line with the International Telecommunication Union requirements to start 10% of the constellations within two years of ITU filing, 50% of the constellations within five years, and 100% of the satellites within seven years. It focuses on.
Boasting the largest exclusive economic zone and numerous islands in the Atlantic and Indo-Pacific, France has submitted its request to ITU, an important constellation called Semaphore-C, made up of 116,640 satellites. However, unlike the aggressive launch schedules of the US and China, Europe’s space launch capabilities have declined. Now it relies on the Vega-C, a small launcher. The Ariane-6 is pretty much ready for the commercial launch, but you’ll need to get a cost-effective tag. The next generation reusable launcher, Ariane Next remains in the development stage.
The Sino-American Satellite Constellation Race is currently considered a critical infrastructure and assumes it will depend on these authority, at the expense of strategic autonomy through the satellite Internet.
Europe has realised what is behind the US from a nurturing venture capital perspective. The US commercial space ecosystem raised US$6.8 billion in 2023, but the European ecosystem is lagging behind, with investments totaling US$1.4 billion. The main concern is that Europe is cornering without choice, especially as other non-US sources in venture capital have no access to startups, especially due to funding technology that moves from demonstrations to commercialization.
The Sino-American Satellite Constellation Race is currently considered a critical infrastructure and assumes it will depend on these authority, at the expense of strategic autonomy through the satellite Internet. This assumption was initially successful, but now the call for European autonomy will merge EU members and force other countries to reflect on autonomy. While this may seem like tensions in EU-US relations, bilateral relations are likely to be a deal with President Trump coming to power and musk. This is inevitable and suits the tastes of both sides of the Atlantic, given the new power equation.
Chaitanya Giri is a Fellow of the Center for Security, Strategy and Technology at the Observer Research Foundation
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