For the past three years, Europe has been suffering due to the protracted warfare between Russia and Ukraine. At the same time, Ukraine is losing a significant amount of energy revenue as part of the energy transit fee, while Russia is facing economic strain due to sanctions and the subsequent closure of the Ukrainian transit route. These developments are reshaping energy geopolitics.
Although new external players are emerging to export energy to Europe, what stands out is that Russia remains indispensable to these countries due to its geographical location and longstanding energy ties. Therefore, there is an urgent need for an end to the war between Moscow and Kyiv.
Intrduction
The Russia-Ukraine war is approaching its third anniversary this month, having begun in February 2022. Though there is no immediate resolution in sight, its impact on energy security—particularly European energy security—remains evident. It is a fact that the European economy, already under strain following the pandemic, has slipped into recession due to the war. If the conflict continues, it will pose a substantial challenge to Europe’s energy security.
Despite EU countries making efforts to diversify their energy supply sources, their success has been limited. The energy crisis in Europe has been further exacerbated by a harsh winter and Ukraine’s decision to annul the treaty signed between Russian energy giant Gazprom and Ukrainian energy conglomerate Naftogaz on 1 January 2025. This move forced Russia to halt energy exports to Europe via Ukraine, compelling many European countries to reassess their geopolitical engagements not only with Ukraine but also with Russia.
Given these geopolitical shifts, there is a pressing need to reinterpret relations between Russia and Europe in the context of energy security.
Another important aspect to highlight is that, with Donald Trump assuming office as US President, a major policy shift by the US administration towards Russia is expected. This could further impact relations between Russia and Europe. It is worth recalling that Russia has been one of the key beneficiaries of Europe’s energy crisis—alongside the US, which emerged as a major exporter of LNG to Europe.
In these strategic geopolitical dynamics, it is essential to examine the state of energy relations between Russia and Ukraine and their ramifications for Europe’s energy security.
Russia-Europe energy relations
Historically, Russia has been a major supplier of energy to European countries. It is worth recalling that in the late 19th century, many European energy conglomerates took an active interest in harnessing Caspian energy. Under Tsarist Russia’s suzerainty, Baku became a major centre for oil exploration, attracting European players, including the Noble Brothers.
The Tsarist authorities recognised the importance of capital inflow and technology, encouraging these European players to invest in Baku’s energy sector. In this regard, it is significant to note that at the beginning of the 20th century, Russia became a major global oil producer.
During the First World War, Baku became a key target for Germany and Turkey due to its energy resources. However, their attempt to capture the Baku oil fields was foiled by a joint British and Russian effort. This altered the course of the First World War and shifted the geopolitical landscape. Even during the Second World War, Soviet oil remained a key focus for Germany.
After the formation of the Soviet Union, despite ideological differences with European countries, it continued to supply a significant portion of energy to the European market. In return, the Soviet Union received the foreign exchange necessary to sustain its rentier economy. The Druzhba (Friendship) Pipeline, which has been in the news recently due to its closure by the Ukrainian authorities to stop Russian gas from reaching the European market, served as a major route for energy transportation from the Soviet Union to Europe.
Even in the post-Soviet phase, Russia and Europe’s energy relations took a new turn. Due to the growing demand for energy, Russia has solidified its position as a reliable supplier to the European market. However, Russia’s concerns about Europe’s geopolitical manoeuvres in the post-Soviet Eurasian space, particularly in the Caspian energy market, emerged when the US outlined its own energy policy for the Caspian region and subsequently established the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline.
This generated a degree of apprehension among Russian policymakers. Despite the geopolitical tension between Russia and the West, particularly among European countries, energy relations between the two continued without obstruction. The location of Russian energy resources and its pricing structure facilitated closer cooperation between Russia and EU countries.
Notably, the Crimea crisis in 2014 and the subsequent sanctions imposed on Russia by Western countries had little impact on energy relations. This can be corroborated by data from the European Commission, which states that in 2021, the EU imported 62 per cent of its fuel from Russia, totalling around 98.9 billion euros. It is also worth noting that in 2021, Russia was the fifth-largest trading partner of the EU, according to the same report.
The reason for providing a historical overview of Russia-EU energy relations is to emphasise the fact that any disruption in energy relations between the two will have far-reaching repercussions on geopolitics. The intensification of the energy crisis for European countries in recent years, due to the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war, is a testament to this. The International Energy Agency (IEA), in its report titled Russia’s War on Ukraine, highlights that “Russia cut 80 billion cubic metres (bcm) of pipeline gas supplies to Europe, plunging the region into an energy crisis,” thus posing a substantial challenge to Europe’s economic development. The report further adds that “as use in industry fell by almost 25%.” This not only worsened the economic situation of European countries but also posed a significant threat to human security.
Although Europe attempted to escape the energy crisis by diversifying its supply sources, including through the United States as well as West Asia and Caspian countries, the immediate impact on EU countries was severe.
The European Commission, as reports suggest, has also warned that EU countries will be unable to meet their commitments to reduce climate emissions. In this context, another noticeable trend is that EU countries, in order to meet their energy demands, have started depending more on nuclear energy. Some of these developments have created a new form of energy crisis. At the same time, EU countries have initiated a consortium to pursue a common energy policy. However, it is evident that European countries are struggling with energy issues, which may have profound implications on European geopolitics, adding a new dimension to the Russia-Ukraine war.
Implications of Russia-Ukraine war on energy security
While NATO made a surprising move in the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war by admitting Sweden and Finland, the unity among EU member states and their common policy towards Russia did not last long. Three major NATO countries—Hungary, Poland, and Slovakia—took a different stance towards Russia.
hese three NATO member states prioritised their energy interests and began renegotiating with Russia to overcome the energy crisis. Although they have obtained an exemption from the EU to continue receiving energy from Russia, the shift in their position is causing concern within NATO.
The pro-Russian tilt was particularly evident when Slovakia criticised Ukraine for obstructing the flow of gas. Robert Fico, the Prime Minister of Slovakia, in an open letter addressed to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy on 12 January 2025, stated, “I do not intend to further escalate tensions. I want to fully concentrate on resolving the situation related to the cessation of gas transit.” Fico, emphasising the economic consequences of Ukraine’s actions, further highlighted that “the Slovak Republic loses about 500 million euros annually by stopping gas transit.”
It is worth recalling that in October 2024, Hungarian Foreign Minister Peter Szijjártó emphasised the importance of Russian gas for Hungary. He announced that Hungary plans to increase its gas purchases from Russia by more than “2 billion cubic metres,” as reported.
Austria is another country severely affected by the stoppage of energy supplies from Russia due to Ukraine’s decision. A significant portion of Austria’s energy—approximately 80 per cent—was imported from Russia. France also made a similar move. Despite being a key player in the EU and NATO, France has openly circumvented sanctions on Russia. As statistical data reveals, France is one of the major importers of energy from Russia and has consistently advocated for a more lenient position towards Russia. Other EU member states, such as Belgium, the Netherlands, and Italy, which once depended heavily on Russian energy, are now following France’s lead.
The internal squabble within EU countries over the question of further sanctions on Russia was clearly evident at the recently concluded EU Foreign Ministers’ Summit, where Hungary opposed the European move. During the discussions, a consensus was reached to try and mollify Hungary by supplying Azerbaijani gas through Ukraine. Slovakia also agreed to supply gas to Azerbaijan.
Though the EU reached a consensus on prolonging sanctions against Russia, it may not be feasible in the long run. For instance, Russia has strengthened its relations with Azerbaijan, as evidenced by the fact that during the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, Russia did not support Armenia, despite being part of the CSTO. Similarly, Azerbaijan has bolstered its defence cooperation with Russia. In this context, Russia may influence Azerbaijan in directing energy shipments to European countries, which could affect Europe’s energy security.
At the same time, European countries are importing LNG from the United States following sanctions against Russia. However, this comes at a significant cost to European nations. The situation has been further complicated by Trump’s insistence on European countries purchasing more LNG from the US. In fact, European countries fear a new form of “trade and tariff war” with the US if they do not comply with Trump’s demands. This could worsen the energy crisis in Europe. In light of this, the EU may be considering softening its stance against Russia.
Similarly, Qatar, which has emerged as a major LNG supplier to EU countries, is also considering cutting its energy exports. This is due to the EU imposing a tariff of up to 5 per cent on energy companies from Qatar that are exporting energy to the EU. Even the proposed Israel-Greece Electricity Energy Corridor, which aims to supply electricity to EU countries via the Eastern Mediterranean region, is also in limbo. This is because Israel has withdrawn from the proposal due to the ongoing war in West Asia. This will further exacerbate the energy crisis in Europe. Along with its geopolitical implications, it will have a deeper impact on the domestic politics of the respective European countries.
This is evident from the fact that energy relations with Russia are emerging as a dominant issue in the forthcoming elections, particularly in Germany. Political parties, especially opposition ones, are eager to highlight Germany’s economic slowdown due to the standoff in energy relations with Russia. In fact, there is growing resentment in Germany over its NATO membership, which is putting Berlin in a difficult position. The worsening energy crisis is also prompting Germany to reconsider its energy strategy.
Geopolitical implications
Going by the above discussion, it is pertinent to underline the implications on both regional geopolitics. Some of these implications are:
In the long run, energy will influence the strategic behaviour of both Russia and European countries due to their “complex interdependency.”
Because of domestic compulsions, European countries may reconsider their NATO membership (despite Russia posing a substantial challenge to their security) and, at the same time, develop stronger energy relations with Russia, as energy security becomes an increasing concern.
Due to the ongoing war, Ukraine, as the transit country for energy supplies to Europe from Russia, is losing significant energy transit fees.
The EU countries are likely to adopt a different policy posture towards Ukraine in light of President Trump’s assumption of office. He is expected to tone down US policy towards Russia and may push Zelenskyy to initiate dialogue with Putin.
Despite seeking energy diversification, European countries are facing challenges in obtaining energy from external markets and have also failed to facilitate their energy transition.
Russia is also facing a major challenge, particularly after the overthrow of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. This led to a significant strategic backlash, as Syria was traditionally considered Moscow’s sphere of influence. In this context, Russia cannot afford to prolong its confrontation with European countries, as it is having a deeper impact on Russia.
When looking at the geopolitical complexity of Russia-Europe energy relations, it can be stated that both parties want to maintain strong relations, despite certain areas of difference. European countries, in focusing on the Ukraine crisis, are effectively undermining their own energy security. It is a fact that energy diversification in a short period is not feasible and will only prolong the energy crisis for European countries. By depending on other external markets, European countries are, in fact, aggravating their own economic woes. There is an urgent need for dialogue among all stakeholders to bring an end to the Russia-Ukraine war.
The author teaches at the School of International Studies, JNU, New Delhi. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely those of the author. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost’s views.
