According to Russian separatist group Atesh, if Vladimir Putin’s regime collapses, Russia will fall into a “massive ethnic conflict.”
Just two years ago, Atesh challenged Russia’s longstanding stability, and its growing influence sparked concern over the prospects of a civil war.
In an interview with the UK-based Daily Express, members of the group argued that internal uprisings could play a key role in weakening Moscow’s grip.
Members of Athesh revealed their strategy and revealed that they are building alliances with other Tatar groups in Russia to induce an ethnic uprising against Putin’s regime.
“There’s great potential in this,” the group said. “Wilding Russia through an internal uprising could be a critical step in ending that attack.”
The group further predicted the turbulent post-Putin era, claiming that they were certain that a massive ethnic conflict would begin in Russia after the defeat of Putin and the death of the dictator himself.
What is the Atesh Group?
The word “fire” in Tatar, which is a Turkish language, changes the group’s intense resistance to Russian control. The Tatars, a Turkish-speaking ethnic group, are endemic to the regions of Central Asia and Eastern Europe. Historically, European scholars have used this term to describe non-Russian people.
Russia annexed Crimea in 2014. In 2022, a full-scale invasion of Ukraine began.
In response to the Russian attack on Ukraine in 2022, Atesh emerged as an underground resistance network consisting mainly of Crimean Tatars and Ukrainians.
The group claims that at this point it has grown from a small band fighter to a movement with “thousands” members.
Russia’s demographic landscape is diverse and has over 190 nationalities. According to the 2010 census, more than 5.3 million Tatars are Russia’s largest Turkish ethnic group. Alongside the Bashkir, they live primarily in the autonomous republics of Tatarstan and Bashkortstan, where national movements for independence from Moscow have gained traction.
Atesh operates in the occupied territories and supports sabotage, intelligence newsletters, and procrane resistance. Their commitment was evident in an oath posted on Telegram in September 2022, declaring, “I swear to be faithful to my blood and soul to the Atesh movement and to fight for the Ukrainian state.” I’m doing it.
The Kremlin labeled Atesh with terrorist organizations and banned it, but the group continues to challenge Russian authority from the shadows.
The strategic role of Atesh in resistance
According to a BBC report, the group specializes in gathering important intelligence regarding Russian military movements, primarily in Crimea, in other occupied areas and even within Russian borders.
Atesh appeared as a key player in Ukraine’s resistance efforts, particularly in September 2023, carrying out an attack on the Russian army.
Their intelligence played a key role in guiding the famous Ukrainian strike in Crimea, including attacks on Russian lander Minsk, submarine Rostovondon and catastrophic attacks on the headquarters of the Russian Black Sea Fleet I did.
Atesh provides detailed information on air defense, military storage, bases and military movements, with some operatives in monitoring for several weeks. These efforts resulted in the deaths of Russian officers.
Atesh’s recent work
In October 2024, “Kyiv Post” reported that Atesh Partisans had infiltrated the Russian military ranks. As Russia began drafting Ukrainians from newly occupied territory, Atesh agents seized the opportunity and volunteered at the Military Entry Office. This strategy allowed them to operate within Russian military units and gathered important information for future operations.
In November 2024, Atesh argued liability for sabotage targeting the main railway of the occupied Zaporizhzhia Oblast. The attack disabled electrical equipment and disrupts Russian military supply lines. A fire broke out in a relay cabinet near Tokumak, a Russian-controlled city, strengthening the logistics challenges of the Russian military.
By December 2024, Atesh had escalated its business further, infiltrating a facility in the Russian Federation Security Services (FSB) and sharing photos of a secret social media site. The image reportedly was taken on a Danirobo military aircraft in the Republic of Mariel, showing a multi-purpose helicopter and transport aircraft stationed there. Atesh said that in addition to the growing vulnerability of Russia, “the base lacks qualified personnel.”
Later that month, Atesh argued for a disturbing increase in suicide among Russian soldiers in the occupied Herson area. The deaths caused by Russian soldiers of the DNEPR group reflect an increase in morale problems among troops stationed in this contested area, further undermining Russia’s military status.
ATESH’s growing network and impact
Over the past two years, Atesh has become the most vast partisan group operating in Russia and Ukraine. The movement’s reach now ranges from Kaliningrad’s Baltic coast to the frozen spread of Siberia, enveloping major urban areas such as Moscow and St. Petersburg.
Additionally, Atesh has advocated strong support from the Turkish and white communities within Russia, adding weight to their mission. “We feel the support of Russian Turkish and white people,” they said.
“Their support allows us to have resources to attack President Putin’s war machinery.” This growing support network enhances ATESH’s capabilities and makes the group a terrifying resistance in the ongoing conflict. It is positioned.
According to a report by Daily Express, ATESH members highlighted the increased resonance of groups in the diverse ethnic communities of Russia. “People in the Russian Federation are under constant pressure and often lose their identity and culture,” they said.
“This is why many representatives of the Russian national minority are taking part in our movement. Together with us, they will dismantle the so-called “Russian Federation” and for a better future for the people. Find a platform to fight. ”
With the aim of expanding the cells of the region and enhancing attacks within Russia, the group aims to destabilize the Kremlin authority from within.
Perhaps the most intimidating thing about Moscow is its ability to capitalize on the frustrations that have been boiled down among Russian ethnic minorities.
The Art of Penetration
Atesh’s influence overshadows Russia’s future stability and sparks debate about the possibility of internal anxiety.
Despite the growing influence of Atesh, it is unclear whether full-scale rebellion or ethnic conflict within Russia can be fired. Facing a horrifying enemy like Russia, Atesh’s operations are largely limited to guerrilla tactics and secret actions.
However, their resolve to destabilise Russia from within continues. Through continuous sabotage and destructive operations, Atesh continues his fight to weaken the Kremlin.
Shubhangi Palve is a defense and aerospace journalist. Before joining the Eurasian era, she worked for ET Prime. She has over 15 years of extensive experience in the media industry, spanning the print, electronic and online domains. Please contact the author at shubhapalve(at)gmail.com
