ISLAMABAD, Pakistan – When the Taliban captured Kabul in August 2021, then-Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan said the Afghan group had returned to power for the first time since 2001 and had “broken the shackles of slavery.” What I told you is a famous story.
The Taliban’s elevation was seen as increasing the regional influence of Pakistan, which has been seen as a patron of Afghan groups seeking “strategic depth” for Islamabad.
This doctrine reflected Pakistan’s military interest in maintaining strategic control over Afghanistan through the Taliban and using it as leverage against its traditional enemy, India.
Three years later, that calculation appears to have failed, with Pakistani officials furious over ties to Kabul even as the Taliban moves closer to an unlikely partner: India.
India’s Foreign Minister Vikram Misri met his Afghan counterpart Amir Khan Muttaqi, acting foreign minister, in Dubai last week, in the most high-profile public dialogue between New Delhi and the Taliban. The talks followed a series of steps taken by both sides that signaled a dramatic break from a quarter-century of hostility and mistrust rooted in Pakistan’s support for the Taliban.
If this change leads to increased Indian influence in Afghanistan, relations between Islamabad and Kabul could become strained, said Iftikhar, co-founder of Khorasan Diary, a portal that tracks regional security issues. Mr. Firdous warned. “Ultimately, the Afghan people who depend on Pakistan’s borders will bear the brunt of this tug-of-war,” he told Al Jazeera.
old friend, new partner
Pakistan was the Taliban’s main backer during the first two decades of the 21st century, from the 1980s when it supported the Mujahideen against the Soviet Union, and many of its leaders took refuge on Pakistani soil.
By contrast, India considers the group to be a proxy of Pakistan and closed its embassy in Kabul after the Taliban first took power in Afghanistan in 1996. The Indian government has accused the Taliban and their current allies in the government, including the Haqqanis, of repeatedly attacking Indians. Diplomatic Missions in Afghanistan – Embassy in 2008 and 2009 and Consulate General of India in Afghanistan Jalalabad in 2013, Herat in 2014 and Mazar-e-Sharif in 2015.
But 10 years later, those equations no longer hold true.
In December 2024, Pakistan and Afghanistan faced their worst year of violence, especially against law enforcement, since 2016, exchanging attacks on each other’s territory. Pakistan has announced that it is targeting Afghan bases of the Pakistani Taliban, known by its acronym TTP. , a port that Islamabad blames on the Afghan Taliban.
Meanwhile, India has engaged diplomatically with Taliban officials and appears to have readjusted its approach.
The first major meeting will be held in Kabul in November 2024, with JP Singh, joint secretary of the Indian Ministry of External Affairs heading the Afghanistan, Pakistan and Iran desk, and Mullah Mohammad Yaqoob, acting Afghan defense minister. I had a meeting with
A week later, the Taliban named Ikramuddin Kamil as their special envoy to New Delhi, even though India has yet to formally recognize Kabul’s current rulers.
And after the meeting between Misri and Muttaqi last week, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs described India as an “important regional and economic partner.”
“Geography remains the same.”
Some Pakistani analysts say Islamabad has no reason to worry, at least for now.
Former Pakistan Special Representative to Afghanistan Asif Durrani said Pakistan and Kabul share deeper ties than New Delhi and Kabul. “India left Afghanistan after the Taliban takeover and came back after evaluating mutual business opportunities. India and Afghanistan are both sovereign states that are free to establish relations,” Durrani told Al Jazeera. “Pakistan will not be able to object to such a relationship unless it is detrimental to its interests,” he added.
Malieha Lodhi, Pakistan’s former ambassador to the United Nations, the United States and the United Kingdom, echoed this sentiment.
“Afghanistan, a landlocked country, relies primarily on Pakistan not only for trade but also for transit trade. India’s desire for closer ties with Kabul does not change the geography,” she told Al Jazeera. told.
But while Afghanistan’s geography remains the same, many other things have changed in recent years.
India has pumped more than $3 billion into Afghanistan over the past two decades, but the Afghan government’s main trade route remains the Pakistan border, and tensions are rising amid Islamabad’s concerns over TTP attacks.
Founded in 2007, the TTP shares ideological roots with the Afghan Taliban and has waged a violent insurgency against Pakistan. According to data last year, there were more than 600 attacks in Pakistan, killing about 1,600 people, including about 700 law enforcement officers. Most of these attacks were claimed by TTP.
Pakistan has held multiple talks with Afghan authorities, including a visit by its special envoy Mohammad Sadiq in December after 16 Pakistani soldiers were killed in a TTP attack.
However, during Sadiq’s visit for his second term, the Pakistani military launched airstrikes in Belmar district, which borders Pakistan. The Afghan government has denied protection to the militants and said the airstrike killed at least 46 people, including women and children. Just days later, the Afghan Taliban retaliated by targeting “several locations” in Pakistan.
Mr. Lodi pointed out that Mr. Sadiq’s reappointment as special representative was a sign of efforts to repair relations. “Pakistan and Afghanistan are re-engaging diplomatically to reset relations after a year of intense tensions. Improving relations is a strategic imperative for both countries,” she said.
But last week’s meeting between Misri and Muttaqi focused on a topic that some experts say could further complicate relations between Pakistan and the Afghan Taliban: India’s development of Iran’s Chabahar port. It also included a conversation about
chabahar factor
In a statement about the meeting between Muttaqi and Misri, Afghanistan’s Foreign Ministry said they discussed enhancing trade through Chabahar port. This will allow Afghanistan, a landlocked country, to receive and ship supplies bypassing Pakistan.
Chabahar is located in Iran’s Sistan-Baluchestan province, just across the border from Pakistan’s Baluchestan province. It is a resource-rich region of the country, and Islamabad has been battling separatist forces for years. Many of these rebels have taken refuge in Iran.
In January 2024, Iran launched airstrikes into Pakistani territory, targeting alleged hideouts of anti-Tehran militants taking refuge in Balochistan province. Pakistan also retaliated with airstrikes.
Although tensions between Iran and Pakistan have eased following these airstrikes, Islamabad has long accused New Delhi of inciting the Baloch nationalist movement.
Pakistan was referring to the 2016 arrest of Kulbhushan Yadav, who Islamabad claimed was an Indian spy operating in Balochistan. India denies the charges, saying Yadav was abducted from Iran.
“India’s involvement in Balochistan and support for separatists has been a long-standing Pakistan story, highlighted by the capture of Mr. Yadav,” Firdous said.
Against this backdrop, “any mention of Chabahar port and involvement in Afghanistan-India trade will be seen as interventionist by Pakistan,” the Peshawar-based analyst added.
