Story so far:
on January 1, Ivorian President Alassane Ouattara announced that French troops would withdraw from the country by the end of the month. On December 26, in Chad, France handed over the military base of Faya Largaux and began withdrawing troops after the end of a defense cooperation agreement in November. On December 3, Senegal’s President Bachirou Diomai Fay called for the closure of all military bases in France, commenting that their presence was “incompatible” with the country’s national sovereignty. Senegal, Ivory Coast and Chad have joined three West African countries – Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso – in calling for the withdrawal of French troops, dealing a major blow to the effects of France’s decline in the region.
Why did Chad, Ivory Coast and Senegal ask for the withdrawal of French troops?
First, a narrative of incompatibility with national sovereignty. France has around 1,000 people in Chad, 600 in Ivory Coast and 350 in Senegal. Since independence, France had entered into colonial-era agreements with these former colonies to maintain economic, political, and military influence, known as “Françafrique.” French troops have been stationed on the Senegal and Ivory Coast since 2014 as part of Operation Barkhane. For Chad, defense agreements have existed for decades and are not in line with its security requirements. Chad’s President Mahamat Davy says ending the defense agreement is like regaining national sovereignty. Côte d’Ivoire and Senegal follow similar footsteps due to mutual relations that respect each other’s independence and sovereignty.
Second, public dissatisfaction with the existence of France. French troops have been fighting Islamic State and al-Qaeda-linked rebel groups in West Africa since 2014. Despite their military presence, French troops were unable to quell the rebellion in the area. Moreover, it is spreading, degenerating, and strengthening throughout the region. This, along with public demand for their withdrawal, raised anti-French sentiment.
Third, West Africa’s quest to move beyond France. Recently, many West African countries have expressed interest in diversifying their relationships from their traditional colonial past to new partners. Military governments in West Africa, Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso have forged military ties with Russian mercenaries to fight rebellions. For military leaders, Russian mercenaries do not have the baggage of defending democratic values. In addition to that, Russia has successfully promoted its image as Africa’s better security provider.
What does France’s withdrawal mean for African countries?
For Africa, a French withdrawal would mean the end of decades of French influence. But in Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso, France’s withdrawal and Russia’s arrival have not addressed or suppressed the rebellions. Rather, these three countries rank at the top of the Global Terrorism Index 2024 by the Institute for Economics and Peace. Military rule has been strengthened in the region by a new alliance in the Sahel between Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso. General anti-French sentiment could present an opportunity to bring Chad, Senegal, and the Ivory Coast into the Sahel alliance and boost regional counterterrorism efforts.
What does withdrawal mean for France?
Withdrawal has four meanings. First, here is the obituary of “Francafrique”. Under French President Emmanuel Macron, the withdrawal marks the end of “Françafrique” and will be prominent in maintaining a strong economic and diplomatic foothold. Second, the decline in political influence affects economic relations. Since 2010, President Ouattara has received support from France. However, the re-emergence of former President Gbagbo in 2020 challenged political stability. Without political influence, serving France’s economic interests could be problematic. Third, a declining military presence will affect its international reputation. The military has supported African loyalist leaders in maintaining political and economic stability. French troops have been stationed there since the Iborian civil war to support UN operations. The projection of France as a global fighter against terrorism and a defender of international values and human rights is therefore undermined by the new reality. Fourth, Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger pushed the French military into condemnation. This has now been replaced by Russian mercenaries or involved in a military coup, making French influence impossible. Even after independence, political and economic relations with France are uncertain for the Ivory Coast.
Will there be a greater European influence in Africa?
In a geopolitical era of conflict, the declining presence of Europe and competition from Russia and China in Africa have been the least of focus. The EU is struggling with a changing political landscape, security challenges from the war in Ukraine, and greater economic tensions. The handling of dictatorship, immigration, and European sentiment is therefore on the backburner. In the past few decades, Germany, France and the UK have overthrown development funding, leading to an increase in military coups and increased involvement of external actors. To gain a political and security presence in Africa, Russia has filled the military vacuum, while China is asserting its economic influence through the Belt and Road Initiative. The EU’s trade surplus has fallen by 15% from 55 billion euros to 35 billion euros in 2022-2023. In comparison, China maintains a surplus of more than 70 billion euros.
Militarily, Russia is benefiting from the withdrawal of troops. It is worth asking whether this will change Europe’s right-wing governments. The 2024 manifestos of these parties will help in this regard. Their policies are less economically driven and more security-oriented in border and immigration control. In the coming years, Europe’s foreign policy approach will become more inward-looking, with few EU members looking to expand their markets into Africa in the face of competition from China.
The author is a project associate at the National Institute of Advanced Study, Bangalore
public – January 23, 2025 10:52pm
