India’s semiconductor aspirations are attracting global attention with investments from companies and investors across the globe. The country has set ambitious goals to become a major player in the chip manufacturing industry. However, one of the industry’s most influential voices has suggested that the road ahead could “inevitably” be longer than expected.
Chris Miller, author of ‘Chip Wars: The Battle for the World’s Most Important Technology’, said in an exclusive interview with AIM that India is in the early stages of building a chip industry.
“India is currently seeing more investment in semiconductor manufacturing and design than ever before,” Miller said, outlining India’s potential but also highlighting its challenges. He said it would be “inevitably a multi-decade process.”
Mr. Miller emphasized the need to foster domestic enterprises to build a strong domestic ecosystem. Drawing comparisons with industry leaders such as Taiwan and South Korea, he said, “India will not go from an initial level to Taiwan’s level overnight… Countries like Taiwan and South Korea have been building chip industries since the 1970s. It took decades to build.”
Competition with China, Taiwan, and the United States
India’s vision of becoming a semiconductor powerhouse by 2047 is in line with the broader Vikshit Bharat mission.
Mr. Miller advocated strategic planning and consistent investment. “The industry is used to thinking in decades, as it can take three to four years to build a single plant once construction begins, and planning is typically done several years in advance. ” he said.
The global semiconductor race is defined by one name: Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC). TSMC manufactures 99% of the world’s AI accelerators, making it an integral part of driving technological advancements in AI-driven industries.
Nevertheless, Miller added, “India is definitely one of the world’s top countries in terms of chip design talent, second only to the United States.”
Currently, chips are the largest flow of goods to China. This highlights the strategic importance of both countries in the geopolitical tug of war between the United States and China.
Every major AI system, from generative models like ChatGPT to advanced data centers, relies on TSMC’s cutting-edge chips.
The stakes in the semiconductor race are enormous. Miller believes Moore’s law, which predicts transistors will double every two years, is “changing,” so TSMC is pioneering alternatives such as 3D stacking and advanced packaging. These innovations enable continued improvements in AI chip performance and ensure TSMC’s leadership.
Although competitors such as NVIDIA and Broadcom play important roles in the design, TSMC’s scale and expertise give it an edge.
Leverage established technology
On the production side, Miller advised India to start with established technologies rather than jumping into cutting-edge innovations like 2-nanometer and 3-nanometer nodes.
While countries like the US and China move forward in producing advanced 3-5 nm chips, India finds itself grappling with fundamental challenges. Despite new initiatives and increased budget allocation, India’s semiconductor ambitions remain far away.
At the same time, China’s reported breakthroughs with 3nm chips are challenging U.S.-led sanctions that have sought to halt China’s progress. Indian facilities are still working on mature nodes such as 28 nm and 40 nm.
Aptly summarizing India’s predicament, semiconductor analyst Arun Mampajee said: India actually doesn’t have much choice in this regard. ”
The Government of India has demonstrated its commitment to this sector by allocating Rs 6,903 billion in the interim budget, more than double the amount from the previous year. But experts say money alone will not be able to plug decades of technological and infrastructure deficiencies.
Miller also noted that many countries, including European countries and Israel, are following this pragmatic approach. “There’s a lot of innovation happening in older process technologies, especially as they’re being repurposed for applications like AI,” he noted.
Chip talent and infrastructure challenges
Miller identified human resources and infrastructure as two major obstacles to India’s ambitions. India has considerable expertise in chip design, but expanding into manufacturing, testing and packaging will require specialized skills across multiple disciplines.
“It takes time to develop this talent through a variety of educational backgrounds, internships, and job training,” Miller explained.
Infrastructure development is also an important area, especially for the materials, chemicals, and specialized tools needed for semiconductor manufacturing. India’s expansion into semiconductor manufacturing requires the development of specialized infrastructure, including its own chemicals, materials, and tools.
Although Miller expressed optimism about the current pace of progress, he reiterated that building full-scale capacity “will probably take 10 years.” “With continued efforts to establish the necessary infrastructure, progress in this area is already visible,” he concluded.
