Race to deploy 6th generation fighters
Air Force Secretary Andrew Hunter (Secretary of Acquisition, Technology, and Logistics) recently announced that there is an emerging consensus on where the United States and China stand in the race to field sixth-generation fighter jets, as new developments in both countries’ programs continue to garner attention. provided insight into. question. Mr Hunter warned that China “could absolutely beat us” in the “race” to be the first to field such an aircraft, saying: So not everything that comes out publicly is shocking. But that being said, their pace is incredibly fast. “We never have time to waste,” he added, noting that “they may beat us” in terms of timing when sixth-generation fighters enter service.
Hunter’s statement is by no means unprecedented, with the US Air Force commander, General Mark Kelly, previously warning that China is in a good position to begin deploying sixth-generation fighter jets before the US. was. “I can’t talk about what’s going on in China today, other than that they’re planning the 20th Party Congress (in October). But I can tell you what’s not going on. They’re the sixth generation. “We’re not debating the relevance of air superiority. And we can also say that they’re well on their way,” he said. Kelly gave a sense of how close the race for next-generation fighter jets is, adding that the Air Force “needs to ensure that we achieve sixth-generation air superiority at least a month before our competitors.”
Serious questions about the viability of NGAD
2024 not only has repeatedly raised serious questions about the viability of the U.S. Air Force’s Next Generation Air Superiority (NGAD) 6th Generation program, especially its high cost, but also indicates that China has two completely separate 6th Generation He also unveiled a flight technology demonstration aircraft. A program with a distinctive tailless design. An expensive and ambitious initial plan to redesign the NGAD in stages, similar to the Century series of American fighter jets from the early Cold War era, was announced to be canceled in 2022, but a long-range, high-performance successor was announced. Air superiority fighters are now available at affordable prices. The F-4, F-15, and F-22 continue to pose serious questions. At the heart of this uncertainty is growing concern about whether U.S. industry will be able to compete with China on program schedules and costs.
There remains a strong possibility that China’s unveiling of two sixth-generation fighter prototypes will stimulate investment in NGAD and accelerate its efforts, but given the performance of the Chinese and U.S. defense sectors in recent decades, , indicating that it is still likely that China will continue to engage in NGAD. It plans to field sixth-generation fighter jets significantly earlier than the United States. Comparing the development schedule of China’s J-20 fifth-generation fighter jet to its American rivals, the F-22 and F-35, provides a notable indicator of this.
Reduced development time for J-20
As explained in my recent book, “China’s Stealth Fighter: The J-20 ‘Mighty Dragon’ and the Growing Challenge to Western Air Superiority”:
“Concerns about how quickly China can develop a sixth-generation fighter are almost certainly very much influenced by the precedent of the J-20, which set a very fast development period, and other than engine development, The rate of incremental upgrades was fast, even though the F-35 was America’s fourth jet. still completed development much faster. Although it made its first demonstration flight 11 years later than the F-35, deliveries to the People’s Liberation Army Air Force could still begin just months after the F-35 was first delivered to the U.S. Air Force.
“The J-20 went from first demonstration flight to frontline service in just the same amount of time it took the J-10, whereas the F-35 and F-22 took 15 to 16 years. In the race to develop more capable sixth-generation fighters, China’s technological and industrial position relative to the United States was therefore significantly better than in the fifth-generation era. China is number one in terms of speed of entry into service. There was considerable concern as to whether we would be able to win easily in the 6-generation competition.”
It was previously expected that the use of advanced digital assembly and test techniques would significantly accelerate NGAD development and reduce development costs, but the value of these technologies has since been overestimated. It was rated as
China could deploy 6th generation fighter jets years earlier than the US
China could deploy 6th generation fighter jets years earlier than the US
The failure to facilitate a quick and trouble-free entry into service for the T-7 trainer, the first program to widely use the T-7 trainer, was a turning point in this regard. As problems continued to mount with the T-7 program, by May 2023 Air Force Secretary Frank Kendall declared that these technologies were “overhyped” and could only reduce cost and schedule by about 20 percent at best. I concluded. The disappointment of high hopes for digital assembly and testing technology has been a major factor in dampening hopes that the U.S. Air Force will enter service with a sixth-generation fighter jet around 2030.
Secretary Kendall acknowledged in late September 2022 that the NGAD program has not yet entered the engineering, manufacturing, and development (EMD) stage, meaning NGAD could not produce an operational fighter until closer to 2040. Despite not being the first American fighter of its generation, the F-35 took a full 15 years from the start of EMD to reach limited initial operational capability in the Air Force. NGAD has a similar schedule. China was able to develop the J-20 fifth-generation fighter from first flight to service much faster, and it took the United States much longer to do the same. The F-35 and therefore the F-22 set a precedent for China to field a sixth-generation fighter several years earlier than the United States.
Photo credit: Lockheed Martin and Twitter/X
