After 15 days and 12 matches, nothing is separating world champion Ding Liren and challenger Donmaraj Gukesh for the 2024 FIDE World Championship. They have won their last two games in dramatic fashion, drawing 6-6.
With a tiebreak looming, there is a chance they can safely eliminate the remaining two classic games. But given the twists and turns this championship has taken thus far, few would bet on even wilder developments in the upcoming Games 13 and 14.
On its final day of rest, let’s take a look at how the World Chess Championship reached its home line.
How will the loss in Game 12 affect Gukesh?
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After a stunning victory in the 11th match, Gukesh was sent back to square one with a loss in the 12th match. The 18-year-old says he is still happy with the current state of the game despite the loss.
But the bigger concern for him was how Ding found the best chess to win on demand. The victory in Game 12 felt like it came out of the blue. Up until now, Ding had shown no desire to win, especially when it came to Hakukoma. So what happened in Game 12 would have been a huge curve ball for Gukesh and his camp.
On ChessBase India’s stream, five-time world champion Viswanathan Anand called the loss “traumatic” for Gukesh, saying he felt as if the Indian challenger had been “wiped out” in the 12th match. said.
In that sense, the day of rest came at the perfect time for the Gukesh camp. That not only gave him enough time to get the bad day out of his body, but also gave him more time to prepare for his final classic game against Hakukoma on Wednesday. In most of his matches against White so far, Gukesh has caught Din off guard early on. Team Gukesh now has another big plan to make.
Does Ding have any momentum now?
Simply put, yes. The situation is very different from the one where Ding and Gukesh could have reached 6-6 with just two more draws, rather than a victory close to the goal line.
Both players said their momentum was even and there was almost no difference in level. However, momentum is an important factor in any sport, and there’s no denying that Ding has it firmly on his side in this case.
Imagine their mentality after the 11th. Gukesh is euphoric and Din is depressed. But 24 hours later, the situation was exactly the opposite. That’s why, even though the match is currently tied, Ding has swung the pendulum of momentum in his direction and now has a firm grip on all the aces.
So, in case it comes to a tiebreaker, who is better at rapids and blitzes?
At this stage, a tiebreaker is not guaranteed. However, the fact remains that Ding is better at faster time control. For both rapids and blitzes, Gukesh’s FIDE ELO rating is in the mid-2600s, while his FIDE ELO rating is in the low 2700s. At the elite level of chess, it is a huge gulf between two players. This is partly explained by Gukesh preferring classical chess and therefore not participating in many games with faster time control.
Over the past 12 Classic Games, Ding has shown time and again how he makes the best decisions when under time pressure. He can now choose to go back to his comfort zone of staying solid and taking risks on Gukesh if he wishes. The match is exactly where Ding wants it to be.
Does Gukesh have experience in handling such losses?
yes! Just six months ago, he won the Candidates Tournament and qualified for the World Championship. At the time, Gukesh had lost to Alireza Firouzja in round 7. Unlike this match, which was their 12th loss, they missed out on an advantageous position. Like this loss in Game 12, it also happened right before a rest day.
Gukesh later said that during that rest day he felt so good both chess-wise and mentally that he felt like he could win the Candidates Tournament for the first time after that loss. Of course, regaining that feeling is easier said than done, given the very different current situation and the pressures in a different stratosphere.
How has your experience been, Ding?
While Gukesh takes comfort in that experience, Ding is now exactly where he was heading to become world champion last year. He won the 12th game to make it 6-6, tied the 13th and 14th games, and then defeated Ian Nepomniachi in the tiebreaker.
The stars seem to be aligning for the Chinese and it will be up to Gukesh to find another breakthrough. All his ambitions will be put to the test, especially in the 13th game on Wednesday – his last match against Hakukoma.
