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In recent months, ethnic armed groups have won most of their battles against Myanmar’s sophisticated and heavily armed military junta, demonstrating their strategic and tactical prominence in modern warfare. As the fighting intensifies, the use of commercially weaponized drones emerges as a key game-changer in the war against the junta.
Governments and conventional air forces have long dominated the use of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) in warfare. However, the commercialization of drone technology has made it possible for non-state actors to acquire and weaponize affordable commercial drones. This shift is exemplified when Myanmar’s local defense forces use drones to resist the Tatmadaw.
According to the Center for Information Resilience, from October 2021 to June 2023; 1,400 online videos about flying dronescarried out by groups opposed to the Myanmar military. By early 2023, the organization reported having made the certification. 100 flights per month. Over time, drones have evolved from off-the-shelf quadcopters such as: Chinese companies like DJI There are many things like improvised drones made with 3D printing technology.
Ethnic armed groups, particularly the Three Brothers Alliance, have resorted to lethal strategies that include the use of drones as part of their main warfare approach. These groups use drones to map territory, assess military strength, and effectively dismantle regime outposts and stakeout groups. From October to November last year, ethnic armed groups 25,000 bombs were dropped Use of drones on military bases. Attacks from multiple directions limit the military’s ability to regain the initiative or deploy regiments for relief or reinforcements. Initially, the military was surprised by this strategy, but had trouble adapting.
Ethnic armed groups, particularly the Three Brothers Alliance, have resorted to lethal strategies that include the use of drones as part of their main warfare approach.
Changing dynamics of drone attacks
Myanmar Air Force, First drone attack against ethnic armed groupArakan Army in 2020. Until that point, state actors could only carry out drone attacks. In the early stages, ethnic groups also found it impossible to penetrate the jamming signals used by the military regime.
The Tatmadaw quickly lost its monopoly on airstrikes, and the 2021 coup significantly changed the balance of power, as tech-savvy resistance fighters acquired drone technology that made it easier to use among non-state groups. The proliferation of drone technology has given resistance groups access to inexpensive weaponized commercial drones. Although anti-junta forces cannot match the Tatmadaw military’s superiority in conventional fixed-wing aircraft, the use of weaponized drones has significantly increased the battlefield by forcing junta forces to be more cautious in tactical engagements. It’s having an impact.
The Tatmadaw quickly lost its monopoly on airstrikes, and the 2021 coup significantly changed the balance of power, as tech-savvy resistance fighters acquired drone technology that made it easier to use among non-state groups.
It remains difficult to predict which customers will weaponize these commercial drones, as they are used for a variety of purposes including aerial photography/videography, surveillance, rescue/relief, agricultural applications, etc. Most drones are purchased online and delivered to your doorstep or assembled at home. Online platforms act as facilitators Allowing individuals to weaponize drones and raise funds for their efforts. Videos of attacks and drone assembly are posted to attract attention and secure funding.
Most drone attacks were initially limited to sporadic attacks on isolated military outposts, police stations, and military convoys, but this tactic changed significantly in April. On April 4, a large-scale drone attack struck the capital, which is considered a bastion of military control, and targeted key parts of the military. attack using Approximately 30 dronesthe military headquarters and resistance forces of General Min Aung Hlaing, who rules Myanmar, targeted the airport in Nay Pyi Taw. The junta shot down seven drones after intercepting them, but claimed one of them exploded on the runway, and the military reported no casualties in the attack.
cloud team The People’s Defense Forces (PDF) unit, an armed wing of the National Unity Government (NUG) known for its expertise in drone warfare, claimed responsibility for the attack. Beyond the purpose of inflicting physical harm, drones have been used as psychological weapons to inflict pain between warlords, demonstrating that they can attack anytime and anywhere.
Is Junta sitting idle?
According to recent reportsthe military has procured thousands of Chinese commercial drones and modified them with local ammunition, a trick it appears to have learned from resistance groups. In 2013, Myanmar’s military ordered approximately 12 armed CH-3 unmanned aerial vehicles from China. Since the military government was reinstated, Drone attacks against ethnic armed groups By the beginning of this year. Instead of these advanced unmanned aerial vehicles, the military is using multi-rotor commercial drones, including agricultural drones, to prepare for critical moments, according to media reports and testimonies from soldiers from anti-junta resistance groups. It seems there is.
This move suggests two things. First, the size and scale of drone warfare may increase; second, the military will have a good opportunity to assess the strength and strategy of the rebels and build up their forces, strengthened by conscription, to attack. Looks like he’s waiting. It remains to be seen whether this will help change the course of the conflict.
Potential impact
The escalation of drone attacks could have major implications for both domestic and regional power relations. First, the proliferation of drones and the potential for large-scale drone attacks raises concerns about the humanitarian impact and safety of civilians captured in conflict areas. The psychological and physical harm to civilians could be severe. already, 2.8 million people are internally displacedAnd this number is likely to increase further, leading to new waves of refugees fleeing to neighboring countries. India, Bangladesh and Thailand are Already meeting more needs Over 2 million displaced people From Myanmar, including before the coup. Thailand has opened a humanitarian corridor, but India and Bangladesh face challenges in mobilizing adequate resources to assist displaced people.
The escalation of drone attacks could have major implications for both domestic and regional power relations.
Second, drone attacks from or targeting border areas can lead to a worsening of security in neighboring countries. These include concerns about the movement of armed groups across borders, the potential for retaliatory attacks, and the need for increased border security. of Defense Research and Development Organization (DRDO) and Bharat Electronics has developed a counter-drone system to detect, track, and intercept rogue drones. Given this existing framework, techniques used for border security in Kashmir and Punjab could be adapted for use in India’s northeast to combat potential attacks by insurgents linked to Myanmar’s Ethnic Armed Organizations (EAOs). The risks posed by drone attacks can be reduced. Thailand and Bangladesh currently do not have similar systems to counter potential drone threats along their border areas, highlighting gaps in addressing these security concerns.
On June 6, the United Nations Secretary-General Responding to the deteriorating situation in Rakhine State We call on all parties to the conflict to show the utmost restraint, prioritize the protection of civilians in accordance with international humanitarian law, and avoid escalating communal tensions and violence. However, as the conflict continues, there has been little visible progress in implementing these measures. In their statement, Work closely with the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and neighboring countries are highly valued and ensuring accountability for action and dialogue is critical to meaningful progress towards a solution.
The international community faces the complex challenge of balancing humanitarian assistance with security concerns. At the same time, local governments must address the dual challenges of accommodating displaced populations and fortifying borders against potential security threats. As drone warfare evolves, continued vigilance and coordinated efforts are essential to mitigating its far-reaching impact on regional peace and stability.
Sreeparna Banerjee is a Junior Fellow at the Observer Research Foundation.
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