Regional analysts say the overthrow of Syria’s Bashar al-Assad regime opens the door to new power dynamics in the Middle East, with Turkey likely to gain the upper hand, destabilizing Iran, and thereby threatening Iraq. says it will gain more freedom from Iranian pressure.
Syria’s Bashar al-Assad has been in power for 54 years, first under the elder Hafez al-Assad and then under his son Bashar, a member of the minority Alawite community, a branch of Shiite Islam. Regional analysts say this fall marks a seismic shift in Middle East politics.
Speaking at a Carnegie Middle East Center webinar in Beirut on December 19, Carnegie Europe Senior Fellow Sinan Ulgen called this a “political earthquake” that would affect a wide range of regions.
“Essentially, we are now seeing a regime in Syria that is actually more likely to be pro-Turkey than pro-Iran in 50 years,” Urgen said. he said. “This is a permanent change in the regional balance of power, which is another reason why the fall of Assad was so enthusiastically welcomed in Turkey’s capital, Ankara.”
Elie Geranmae, deputy director of the Middle East program at the European Council on Foreign Relations, spoke of Israel’s attacks on Iranian assets in Syria and Hezbollah proxies in neighboring Lebanon, as well as Israel’s military attack on the center of Iran’s capital, Tehran. Ta. , “giving Iran a moment of regional reckoning.”
“Iran (Iran) is definitely at a disadvantage,” she said. “There is currently a strategic rethink happening within the establishment about what domestic and international policy will look like going forward.”
Geranmae said that given Iran’s downgraded regional status and the near end of the so-called Axis of Resistance in Syria, Lebanon, Iraq and Yemen, prominent figures in Iran’s powerful Revolutionary Guards are among other He said there is a high possibility that he will be replaced by someone else.
He said Iran is likely to weave a narrative that late Revolutionary Guards commander Qassem Soleimani’s regional plan to surround Israel in a so-called ring of fire has been “achieved,” and that Iran is open to new developments. He said he would aim to devise an alternative plan to deal with it. The reality it faces.
“Iraq is the last stronghold of Iran’s axis of resistance,” said Haris Hasan, a nonresident senior fellow at the Carnegie Middle East Center, but that may be changing.
“Iran may therefore try to strongly protect its influence,” Hasan said. “But as we see, the balance of power has changed significantly and the Iraqi government has gained more freedom to resist some of the pressure from Tehran.”
Hasan said concerns about the possibility of an Islamist-led government in Syria are worrying not only neighboring countries, but also regional political influencers such as Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. Ta.
He said the long border with Syria and strong cross-border ties between the two countries “could give Iraq new leverage.”
Hasan said this could give Iraq a way out of Iran’s influence as developments in the region continue.
