2024 is an election year, and voters in some 80 countries, home to an estimated 4 billion people, or about half of the world’s population, headed to the polls.
However, in Asia, Europe and other regions, many voters chose to reject the status quo, reflecting growing anti-incumbency sentiment. In some cases, official interference with results marred votes, while in others, extremist fringe parties soared in popularity and concerns about the future of democracy grew around the world. Experts tracked an unusual year for the CFR, and the curated list below highlights some of the most consequential elections.
Africa
South Africa’s Landmark Election, CFR Senior Researcher Michelle Gavin
The ruling African National Congress (ANC) lost its majority for the first time in 30 years. The ANC formed a coalition with political opponents to rule the country. The operation will test the ANC’s factional rifts, the same ones that have made President Cyril Ramaphosa so cautious in his decision-making.
The Momentum of Democracy in Africa, CFR Senior Fellow Ebenezer Obadare
African support for the tenets of liberal democracy has never been stronger, especially at odds with trends in advanced liberal democracies where cynicism is on the rise. Outside the voting booth, the passion for equal representation across Africa continues.
Americas
President Trump’s Difficult Challenge: Overcoming Divide at Home to Leverage Power Abroad, CFR Senior Fellow Charles A. Kapchan
President-elect Donald Trump will have to navigate a divided America in a divided world. The brand of stable and effective U.S. national strategy that much of the world hopes Washington can provide will only emerge if the nation is able to overcome its ongoing divisions and dysfunction. .
US-Mexico reset still possible, CFR Senior Vice President Shannon K. O’Neill
Newly elected Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum will have to pivot her politics and policies northward. The United States and Mexico will have to engage in difficult discussions and negotiations over trade, security, immigration, and many other issues.
The Latin American left will show its true meaning in Venezuela, CFR Fellow Will Freeman
The Latin American left has a decision to make regarding Venezuela. Oppose or enable President Nicolas Maduro’s totalitarian plans to remain in power indefinitely. If there are any influential figures outside the country, it is those often considered friends of President Maduro: the left-wing presidents of Brazil, Mexico, and Colombia.
Asia
A big year for elections in Asia, but not necessarily a big year for democracy, says CFR Senior Fellow Joshua Kurlanczyk
Several major Asian countries participated in the 2024 vote, including Bangladesh, Indonesia, and Pakistan. In some cases, authoritarian leaders used fraud, detention of politicians, and other means to make voting unfair to claim a second term.
No more rules for Japan’s ruling coalition, CFR Senior Fellow Sheila A. Smith
Japanese voters handed the ruling coalition of the Liberal Democratic Party and its junior partner Komeito an unmistakable defeat. What happens next will depend on whether conservative parties can rebuild their purpose. Whether that is possible depends on whether Japanese conservatives can agree with each other.
Park Jin-wan, the price of President Yoon Seok-yeol’s rebellion
The 22nd National Assembly, which opened in April, has faced persistent criticism of political acrimony, partisan infighting and unprecedented legislative inefficiency. Resuming substantive legislative activity beyond impeachment efforts remains the top priority and the only viable path to national reconstruction, potentially alleviating public confusion and anger over the current political crisis. .
Pratap Bhanu Mehta says India will bounce back from the brink
India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi entered his 11th year in office for a third consecutive term, but with a far weaker and significantly diminished authority than before. Voters appear to have been disgusted by the Bharatiya Janata Party’s most vicious and vitriolic campaign in recent years, filled with blatant hate speech directed at India’s minority Muslim community.
Taiwan election report meeting with Char Shirley Lin, CFR Senior Fellow Jerome A. Cohen, and Char Shirley Lin
In the wake of Lai Ching-de’s victory, Char Shirley Lin discusses the impact of Taiwan’s presidential and legislative elections, as well as Taiwan’s future relations with the United States and China.
Europe
How a far-right electoral victory could change Europe, CFR Fellows Liana Fix and Sofia Winograd
The success of right-wing parties in the Austrian and German elections could not only normalize anti-immigration and Eurosceptic views in European politics, but also have a destabilizing effect on domestic politics.
How could political instability in France affect Europe?, CFR Senior Researcher Matthias Matthijs
The collapse of the French government and political instability in Germany threaten to send Europe into a tailspin amid rising tensions over migration, Ukraine and energy policy.
Russia is waging a long war in Moldova, William H. Hill
Russian President Vladimir Putin has been trying for two decades to restore the influence the Kremlin lost in Moldova after the collapse of the Soviet Union, with little success. However, Russia’s efforts to control the country have intensified in recent years, particularly after Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022.
Looking to 2025
10 Elections to Watch in 2025, CFR Senior Fellow James M. Lindsay
Although far fewer countries will vote in 2025 than in 2024, the results will still matter to their own citizens and perhaps to other countries beyond their borders as well. Below are 10 elections to watch. Other unplanned elections could materialize if the government falls due to routine parliamentary movements, street protests, or coups.
