New Atlantist
February 10th, 2025 • 10:38am
Print this page
How Trump can unlock new strategic economic opportunities in Central Asia
Central Asia has been far from the top priorities of US policymakers in recent years. Therefore, it was important to see U.S. Sen. Steve Daines reporting on then-designated U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio during a Senate confirmation hearing. Daines told Rubio that the new administration should support Congress’ efforts to ultimately close the Jackson Vanic revision. Furthermore, Rubio appeared to agree with the need to abolish Jackson Vanic. This is called “an absurd relic of the past.”
In fact, repealing the outdated amendments is perhaps the best step the Trump administration can take with Central Asian policies. In doing so, the administration offers an opportunity to increase US cooperation with Central Asian countries in several domains, beyond merely trade and investment. In the long run, the US could deepen collaborations on infrastructure investment, rare earth extraction and counterterrorism based on this initiation in Central Asia, and to the influence of Russia and China in all its regions. I was able to respond.
Abolish the Cold War relics
The Jackson Vanic revision is a volatile but long and extremely important issue for Central Asian countries, including regional economic leaders Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan. Jackson Vanic was originally addressed the Trade Act of 1974, adding trade barriers to non-market economies that restricted the freedom of citizens’ immigration. These countries ended up paying higher tariffs to export to the US and had no access to US investments or credit guarantees.
The main targets of this amendment were the tolerance of anti-Semitism in the Soviet Union, particularly Moscow, and the limitations on the ability to migrate from Jewish countries. At the time, Jackson Vanic was seen as a positive step towards advancing human rights in the Soviet Union.
After the Soviet Union was defeated in 1991, Congress gradually lifted restrictions on Jackson Vanic in most former Soviet republics, which were essentially grandfathers under the provisions of the law. However, the revision still applies to Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan. This is 51 years after the enactment of the amendment and over 33 years since the collapse of the Soviet Union. During his confirmation hearing, Rubio correctly pointed out that the US Department of Commerce no longer considers Kazakhstan a “non-market economy.”
Abundant opportunities
Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan in particular want stronger economic ties with the United States. Kazakhstan is leading the development of Caspian Trans International Transport Routes or “Central Corridors” to send products and goods throughout the Caspian Sea and the South Caucasus, avoiding transshipment through Russia.
Kazakhstan is also rich in rare earth elements and other metals that are essential for green energy transition and battery development. Establishing PNTR and investment guarantees with Kazakhstan could catalyze investments and promote exports to the US. Today, China manages 60% of global production and more than 85% of its critical mineral processing capacity. Close trade ties between Washington and Central Asian countries will allow the United States to reduce its dangerous dependence on China on these resources.
In December 2024, Uzbekistan signed a contract with the United States to help Tashkent join the World Trade Organization. The country is steadily beginning foreign investment and believes it is essential for US companies to develop the country’s fast-growing economy. Tashkent also wants to be a leader in information technology exports and says that it could compete with Eastern Europe and India if it faces the same competitive tariff rates that PNTR offers .
Jackson Vanic remains in the book for the majority of Central Asian states due to legislative inertia in Congress and the lack of US understanding of the region. It would require Congressional actions to repeal the amendment forever. Importantly, its removal is a bipartisan issue. Democrat Senator Chris Murphy and Republican Senator Todd Young introduced the law at the 118th Congress, expanding the PNTR to Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and Tajikistan. Meanwhile, a bipartisan group in the House led by Democratic leader Jimmy Panetta has already proposed legislation at the 119th Congress that eliminates Kazakhstan’s Jackson Vanik.
These lawmakers now appear to have an ally in Rubio. Rubio could defend the removal of Jackson Vanic in the enforcement division, perhaps by Daines himself, when new laws are introduced in the Senate. With Republicans controlling the presidency, Senate and House, there may be fewer political obstacles than ever to the permanent removal of the Jackson Vanic Amendment in Central Asia. The result is significant US leverage in the strategic region between Russia, China and Iran, and opportunities for US companies to compete to invest or trade in Central Asia.
First step only
However, the Trump administration should not limit its Central Asia policies to the abolition of Jackson Vanic’s amendments. It should also help develop new trade infrastructure, seeking opportunities for US President Donald Trump to visit the region, and supporting counter-terrorism efforts against Islamic state and Kolasan province. All of these initiatives will help to violate the influence of Russia and China in the region.
Kazakhstan has worked closely with Azerbaijan and Georgia to turn the central corridor into a major trade route for hydrocarbons, minerals and manufactured goods. Kazakhstan has a huge amount of oil and coal reserves, while Caspian neighbor Turkmenistan has a large gas reserves. It would be strategically wise for the United States to help these countries increase their ability to transport West to Europe. Financing of larger port capacity in Kazakhstan will make oil shipments more economical. US diplomacy and technical support for undersea gas pipelines from Turkmenistan to Azerbaijan ultimately managed to pack a long-debated project.
Importantly, US support for such projects is to loosen one of Trump’s stated goals further and loosen Russia’s grip on the global oil and gas markets. As more energy heads towards Europe, electricity and heating prices will drop, improving the economics of industrialization in Europe. Cutting industrial costs is an important part of the puzzle to help the continent improve the defensive capabilities of Indigenous peoples and achieve the military spending targets Trump sought to achieve by its European allies.
US support for central Asian infrastructure doesn’t see much of the region in predatory funding from China. Beijing’s Belt and Road Initiative funded and built roads, bridges and other transport projects, but in many cases it is expensive. For example, Kyrgyzstan’s debt to China’s Export Bank is estimated to be 36.7% of external liabilities. US companies cannot compete with Chinese state companies in construction pricing, but can compete for quality, especially for strategic and valuable infrastructure projects such as oil export terminals and expanding port capacity. . The less regulated US International Development Finance Corporation is able to unlock funding for strategic US investments in the Central Corridor, thereby allowing Russia to address the energy market and regional debt to China. could expand Central Asia’s exports to Europe while reducing the impact of the company.
Later in his term, Trump will need to consider an official visit to Central Asia. This will make him the first US president to travel to the region. You will never move away from the opportunity for historical notes. Such a trip would appeal to the president.
Central Asian countries, particularly Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, will be keen to sign transactions with Trump on energy cooperation, mining and trade. On February 3, Trump appeared to be open to a deal that grants the US the right to Ukraine’s rare earth extraction. Kazakhstan and, to a lesser extent, Uzbekistan also boasts rich reserves of important minerals essential to new energy, defense, and consumer electronics. The rare earth trade and investment contracts will be a major deliverable to the US President’s first mission to Central Asia.
Finally, Central Asia remains a strategically important region for counterterrorism efforts, as it is primarily close to Afghanistan. With the withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan in 2021, the US will certainly benefit from acquiring regional partners to collaborate on intelligence sharing, border security measures and responsiveness efforts. Part of the US strategy could include direct cooperation with individual countries on these initiatives, but could also involve promoting regional cooperation on counterterrorism. The instability in Central Asia, and the re-emergence of global terrorist networks, is a headache the US president doesn’t want to compete for. Helping Central Asian states more effectively counter the threat of terrorism will serve both the short-term and long-term US national security interests.
Rubio’s apparent trend to abolish the Jackson Vanic amendment could mark the first step in major policy changes in regions where the updated US strategy has been long postponed. Central Asian countries are keen to expand trade and cooperation beyond China and Russia. US policymakers should seize this opportunity to engage more closely with Central Asia, including energy, critical minerals, strategic competition with China, and anti-terrorism.
Andrew D’Anieri is a resident fellow at the Atlantic Council’s Eurasia Centre.
Catherine Spencer is a program assistant at the Atlantic Council’s Eurasia Center.
Read more
Friday, February 7, 2025
Central Asia needs regional and international cooperation to enhance water safety
Report
by
The new Atlantic Council report, “Water instability in Central Asia: Essential Regional and International Cooperation,” details the developing water crisis in Central Asia and outlines strategies to combat the region’s water instability I’m doing it.
Wednesday, February 5, 2025
Surrounded by superpowers, Kazakhstan walks a geopolitical tightrope walk
Freedom and prosperity all over the world
by
Still a relatively young country, Kazakhstan finds itself at a critical time amid a series of domestic and geopolitical shocks. Its future relies on the delicate balance of successful economic liberalization efforts. The country must strengthen its relations with the West and at the same time manage its relations with its strong neighbors, such as Russia and China.
Thu, October 10, 2024
From Dushanbe to Berlin: The Threat of Emerging ISIS-K
Mena sauce
by
Addressing some of these systematic issues could reduce the ability of ISIS-K to adopt from Tajikistan, and ultimately reduce the ability of the group to carry out external work.
Image: General views of downtown with Monument Baitrek seen from Akordah, the official residence of the President of Kazakhstan in Astana, Kazakhstan, November 9, 2023. Reuters/Kazangapov
