Nigel Farage is in trouble again. His latest political instrument, reform, has surged in polls, moving to number one along with some pollers, disrupting feathers on workers’ back benches.
Farage has caused headaches for all prime ministers since David Cameron, but his recent rise is new. The reforms averaged 25% in the January poll. This has passed the peak achieved by UKIP or Brexit parties in previous legislatures. And while past Farage surges have been a spike driven by the European Parliament elections, the EU referendum and the collapse of Teresa May’s government (European Parliament elections), the current rise has been more sustained. Masu. This Faraage boom is not a bubble.
Something else is new. The previous Farage Party lagged behind the traditional government’s political parties, but the current poll shows that all three-way ties between reform, labour and conservatives are around 25%, with the final quarter of the vote. On the left shows that they go to the smaller party and the Liberal Party.
The election scene has never been more fragmented, and this fragmentation has dramatically increased the disruptive capacity of reform.
Neither the UKIP nor the Brexit party were reliable local threats in many seats, but the current split votes take Farage to the biggest electoral disruption zone, a threat of many, and small fluctuations in support Even the effects can have dramatic effects.
The Farage threat is strategic for labor, but existential for conservatives. Seven months after the election results, Tories are still retreating. The latest opinion poll shows that conservatives lost one in six of their 2024 voters, with one in three of their 2019 supporters supporting the Farage party.
The rebound of the opposite depends on persuading unfortunate voters that the Conservatives are the only reliable alternative. However, all reformed polls have brought Farage closer to the point where he can turn the table, convincing dissatisfied voters that Reform Britain is the most viable candidate for opposition, and more likely, at the terminal It brings about the decline of a certain Tory.
All poll leads can approach the point where Farage can turn the table and convince voters that reform is the most viable opposition
While reforms clearly hit Tories nationwide, the overall impact on Faraj’s election map is even more troubling and difficult to measure. With voters becoming more divided than ever, even a rough guide to the first past contest, where local dynamics can balanced hundreds of seats, referendums become unreliable.
As Labour showed us last July, winning to win is more important than the number you win. If the pattern of support remains constant, geography still supports labor and conservatives, preventing reforms when all three parties vote in their twenties. But it would certainly be a brave strategist who envisioned such stability in today’s instability context.
How voters understand and respond to changes in local circumstances is now central to all parties. Tactical coordination between conservatives and reform voters will dramatically amplify the election threats to Labour and the Liberal Democrats. But torries pushing into radical right terrain, and the ghost of Faraj boosts anti-conservative local campaigns, preventing it from being accepted by otherwise liberal professional voters. You can do it.
If the rise of reform continues, incumbents from all mainstream parties will have a large cohort of voters who are strongly opposed to Faraj’s willingness to support those who can stop local candidates. , you can earn profits. Such local dynamics are difficult to predict from national votes as elections become closer and there is a change that only manifests as voters’ minds turn into local contests.
Election Day is still a long way to go, but the Labour MP, who represents the 89 seats that Farage’s Party came in second in July last year, is already worried about how the local dynamics will unfold. And these lawmakers are, of course, the most fuss about the need for labor response to the threat posed by for-profit and reform.
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But begging voters to reform with lean meat on Farage’s favorite issue is a strategy with a prospect of success and high risk. This is a marginalized voter group, with little love for the labor government, little trust, and a strong preference for reforms on issues such as immigration.
The knee’s young response to reform wastes one of the government’s great benefits: the power to set the agenda. Labour won last summer with a ruthless focus on issues combined with broad coalitions, growth, public services and cost of living. Instead, focusing on the issue of dividing labor and play into the strengths of falage is not a great strategy.
Chasing reforms puts a large cohort of voters at risk, floating between workers and clusters of Liberal Democrats, SNPs and Greens, on their liberal left flanks. The focus is on socially conservative and Brexit-friendly “hero voters” that erodes the appeal of workers with this group, but in July they want to drive Tories out The impulse of priority continued to carry them on.
Now, Labour’s retention of its progressive aspect is slipping. Three in ten Labour voters will consider reform votes, while more than four in ten are thinking about Lib Dems or Greens. The populist labor campaign for reform votes could be the last straw for many in this socially liberal visceral reflex group, with reforms falling out of running, but labor unified Next time we risk hundreds of marginal seats that need to control the progressive front.
Workers’ election Jengga Tower is already wobbling. A firm push to the right can cause a crash to the left instead.
