A massive railway project linking China and Central Asia is scheduled to break ground in July after more than 20 years of negotiations.
The China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan Railway Project (CKU), which spans more than 400 kilometers, will begin in the city of Kashgar in northwestern China’s Xinjiang Autonomous Region, pass through the Torugart Pass into Kyrgyzstan, and continue westward to the Kyrgyz border. It will pass through the city of Jalalabad. The final stop is Andijan, a city in eastern Uzbekistan, according to Chinese state media.
Some regional observers told VOA that railway construction has been delayed for more than two decades due to financial and technical problems, as well as attempts by Russia and Kazakhstan to dissuade Beijing from funding the project. It was delayed.
But analysts say that changes in government in Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan since 2016, as well as Russia’s war in Ukraine, paved the way for the three countries to agree to start construction.
Uzbekistan was concerned about some problems with the project, but President Shavkat Mirziyoyev’s government is “open to this project because it is something that Uzbekistan has been planning for decades,” the Central Asian nation said. Temur Umarov said. Expert at the Carnegie Russia and Eurasia Center in Berlin.
He said Kyrgyzstan was “skeptical” of the CKU under the previous government because of Kyrgyzstan’s geographical location, which some political elites considered to be between China and other Central Asian countries that do not share a border with China. He said this was because he was benefiting from his superiority. These people “will sell some products from China to Central Asian countries,” he told VOA by phone.
“But the current president of Kyrgyzstan, Sadyr Japarov, has been talking about this project since the beginning of his term, and it is one of the most important political projects of his presidency,” Umarov added.
In addition to the changing attitudes of Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan, other experts say the war in Ukraine has prompted China and Central Asian countries to seek new transit routes to Europe.
According to Edward Lemon, an expert on China-Central Asia relations at Texas A&M University, trade in landlocked Central Asia mainly goes through Russia, and most of China’s trade with Europe under the Belt and Road Initiative also goes through Russia. It is said to be transiting through Russia.
“All three countries are exploring alternatives, such as expanding trade between themselves and other routes through Iran and the Central Corridor across the Caspian Sea.Rails form part of those routes. ” he told VOA in a written response.
The Intermediate Corridor refers to the trans-Caspian international shipping route that begins in Turkey and passes through the Caucasus, Caspian Sea, Central Asia, and western China. It is the shortest route connecting western China and Europe.
The rail project is one of several under China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), a global infrastructure project involving more than 150 countries and 32 international organizations. In Southeast Asia, China is attempting to build the Kunming-Singapore Railway, also known as the Pan-Asia Railway, which would include connecting Kunming to Kunming via Myanmar, Thailand, Laos, Vietnam, Cambodia, and Malaysia through connections with previous railways. It will include three routes from to Singapore. Existing railway lines in those countries.
Under CKU’s current plan, China would build the China section of the railway, while Uzbekistan would focus on upgrading that section. CKU Railway Co., a joint venture authorized by the three countries, will support the financing and construction of the Kyrgyz section of the railway.
Leaders of China, Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan praised the project’s prospects last month.
At the graduation ceremony held in Jalalabad, Kyrgyzstan on December 27, Chinese President Xi Jinping, in his congratulatory address, called CKU a “new demonstration project of Belt and Road cooperation that will contribute to economic and social development.” said it should be done. Contributing to regional development and improving people’s welfare. ”
Kyrgyzstan’s President Sadyr Japarov, who attended the ceremony, said the project is a “strategic bridge” that will “strengthen regional relations” and strengthen Central Asia’s competitiveness as an international transport and transit hub. Ta.
In a speech read by Deputy Prime Minister for Trade and Investment Jamshid Khodyaev, Uzbekistan’s President Shavkat Mirziyoyev said the CKU would “further expand multifaceted cooperation and strengthen the strategic partnership between our two countries.”
Umarov said both Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan could benefit from CKU.
“Uzbekistan used to rely on Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan as intermediaries for trade with China, but now thanks to the railway it will be much easier to export products to the Chinese market,” he told VOA. Ta.
“Kyrgyzstan could use this project to solve connectivity problems within the country, which would lead to greater economic opportunities in the cities the railway passes through,” he added.
As for China, Umarov said the railway project will allow Beijing to “increase its presence in Central Asia from a trade and economic perspective. This is part of Beijing’s strategy to deepen ties with regional countries.” ”
Some Chinese analysts say CKU could play an important role in connecting Asia and Europe. Zhang Hong, a researcher at the Institute of Russian, Eastern European and Central Asian Studies at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, told the Chinese state-run tabloid Global Times that CKU “represents an important opportunity to strengthen cooperation between Asia and Europe.” Ta. It will probably provide the shortest route to transport goods from China to Europe and the Middle East via China-Europe freight trains. ”
Experts say that in addition to increasing its presence in Central Asia, China will seek to use CKU to promote and advance its Belt and Road Initiative, which has struggled to attract more countries. states.
Niva Yau, an expert on China-Central Asia relations at the Atlantic Council’s Global China Hub, said, “Current Belt and Road projects are not going well, and some projects are facing significant delays.” I’m facing it,” he said.
“At a time like this, signing on to this project helps remind people what Belt and Road is all about,” she told VOA by phone, adding that CKU’s launch marks the start of the project as a provider to Central Asia. He added that it will also help maintain China’s image.
Despite these benefits, both Yau and Umarov said there are still some problems with CKU’s construction. “They are building a railway across the mountains, which requires digging tunnels and advanced technology that is only found within China,” Yau said.
“We’re talking about a passage in Kyrgyzstan, where there’s no (electricity), no water, even things like that. A lot of basic things are still not met,” she said. added.
Umarov said that in addition to technical problems, the project could cause Kyrgyzstan to incur excessive debt to China.
Kyrgyzstan’s debt to China accounts for about a third of its gross domestic product, and “more reliance on Chinese investment for this large-scale project will definitely pose a major challenge for the economy,” he told VOA. told.
Lemon said that while China could improve its image in Central Asia through CKU, Russia may feel further excluded from the region once the project is completed.
“Central Asia’s dependence on Russia as a trade transit state is key to its influence in the region. But ultimately, distracted by the Ukraine war, “There’s not much that (Russia) can actually do because it desperately needs it,” he told VOA.
