Alamy via Reuters
OPEC’s oil quota for Iraq is lower than its production capacity, and it has signed a new contract with BP for development of Kirkuk and other projects.
Iraq’s production capacity exceeds OPEC’s quota The second largest producer in the group Contracts have already been signed
Iraq faces some difficult choices and conflicts regarding national oil policy.
In line with OPEC+’s new supply-curtailment agreement, the company’s crude oil production is expected to increase by only about 200,000 barrels per day (bpd) over the next two years, but it has already reduced its production capacity by 20,000 barrels per day (bpd) during that period. The company plans to increase production capacity by nearly 2 million barrels. period.
Iraq’s crude oil production will gradually increase from about 4 million barrels per day to 4.1 million barrels per day by the end of 2025 and nearly 4.2 million barrels per day by the end of 2026, under a new agreement reached this month by oil producers’ groups. I will do it.
Nabil al-Marsoumi, a professor of economics and energy at the University of Basra in southern Iraq, told ABGI that this modest increase in Iraq’s quota would be an obstacle to its ambitious plans to expand its oil production capacity. spoke.
“The UAE has increased its OPEC quota by about 300,000 barrels per day, while Saudi Arabia’s production will increase by about 900,000 barrels per day… given its huge oil reserves and plans to increase crude oil production capacity. , I wonder why Iraq doesn’t ask for improved OPEC+ quotas, with production exceeding 6 million barrels per day,” Al Marsoumi said.
Iraq, OPEC’s second-largest producer, plans to increase crude oil production to 6 million barrels per day (bpd) by 2028, the state-run Iraqi News Agency (INA) reported in September, according to Basim Hudea, deputy mining official. This was reported as a statement from the minister. .
“Iraq has recently signed several contracts with foreign companies to develop oil and gas fields,” Al Marsoumi said.
“This clearly shows that there is no concrete vision for oil policy, because Iraq is currently promising to pay damages to these companies for the oil produced. This is because they may not be able to sell due to production restrictions.
This month, British oil giant BP reached a final agreement with the Iraqi government on technical terms for the redevelopment of the Kirkuk oil and gas fields.
In separate comments to Iraq’s Sumaria TV, Marsoumi said the best solution for Iraq was to “withdraw” from OPEC and be free to increase production to 5 million barrels per day in 2025 to support its budget deficit. He said it was something to do.
Another Iraqi energy analyst agreed that Baghdad faces what he called “difficult choices” as it struggles to rebuild its war-ravaged hydrocarbon sector.
“Iraq has to decide what it actually wants: more production or more income, or both. If it violates its quotas, it has to consider the reaction of other key member states, especially Saudi Arabia. “No,” said Walid Qadouri, former intelligence director for the Kuwait-based Organization of Arab Petroleum Exporting Countries (Oapec).
“Iraq needs to clarify its priorities: cash or oil,” Qadouri added.
“But if you do a deal with a global oil company and they discover significant hydrocarbons, you have to honor that deal or you may have to pay heavy fines. This is the real problem facing Iraq right now.”
In early 2024, Iraq announced that it would award several oil and gas concession sites to 22 global companies as part of concession rounds 5+ and 6.
Iraq’s state-run Al-Sabah newspaper reported in October that the country plans to offer fresh oil and gas concessions to international companies in 2025 as part of two new licensing rounds, 6+ and 7. Reported.
Iraq’s Oil Minister Hayan Abdul Ghani said in September that the new project would add about 3.459 billion cubic feet of gas per day, increasing the country’s recoverable oil reserves from about 145 billion barrels to 160 billion barrels. Then he said.
