Welcome to this week’s roundup of key global events and trends shaping politics, economics, and society. From groundbreaking policy shifts and diplomatic strategies to emerging resilience and stories of upheaval, we bring you the latest updates and insights. For Indian audiences, understanding these developments is not just about being informed, but identifying the ramifications that could impact India’s foreign policy and its place in an increasingly fragmented world. It’s also something to do.
Whether it’s the headlines that capture the world’s attention or the underreported issues that have far-reaching implications, we aim to provide a clear, concise and comprehensive overview of what matters most.
NATO spending
US President-elect Donald Trump is shaking up the NATO defense spending landscape. According to reports, President Trump’s team has reportedly told European officials that it intends to ask member states to increase their defense budgets to 5% of GDP, which is a total of 32 NATO members. This is more than double the current target of 2%, which only 23 countries currently meet.
The dramatic increase comes as NATO allies are already discussing an increase to 3% at a leadership meeting scheduled for June. Key member states such as France, Germany and the UK are wary of the strain this could put on their public finances. The proposed increases are likely to require significant policy adjustments, especially for countries already facing tight budgets.
President Trump’s approach to NATO has long been controversial.
During his first campaign in the White House, he threatened to withdraw aid to U.S. allies unless they contributed more to their defense. He also proposed cutting off aid to Ukraine and forcing Kiev to immediately negotiate peace. However, sources now say that although President Trump remains opposed to Ukraine’s entry into the Nati, he believes that it is consistent with President Trump’s vision of achieving “peace through strength.” It has indicated that it intends to continue providing military aid.
This change brings cautious optimism to Europe’s allies. After his recent telephone conversation with President Trump, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz expressed confidence that “the United States and Europe will continue to support Ukraine.” Meanwhile, British officials are visiting Washington to assess President Trump’s potential policy direction, underscoring the high stakes for NATO’s future cohesion.
For NATO, the stakes are beyond its budget. President Trump’s insistence on burden-sharing reflects widespread skepticism about multilateral commitments, but his readiness to maintain arms supplies to Ukraine suggests a pragmatic stance. As European capitals prepare for these demands, questions remain about how much unity NATO can muster under such pressure.
Cash sent from President Assad to Moscow
New revelations highlight Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s dependence on Moscow during the nation’s darkest moments. In 2018-2019, Assad’s central bank reportedly airlifted more than $250 million in cash directly to Moscow’s Vnukovo airport. These funds were held in sanctioned Russian banks, highlighting the deepening financial and military ties between Syria and Russia.
The Financial Times exposed these deals, showing that the Assad regime is prioritizing payments to key military allies while Syria’s economy struggles under the weight of war.
This cash transfer coincided with Russia’s significant involvement in the Syrian war effort. Russian military advisers strengthened Assad’s forces while a Moscow-based company was integrated into Syria’s vital phosphate supply chain. Despite Assad’s reliance on Kremlin support, critics, including former regime supporters, see these actions as prioritizing individual survival over national sovereignty.
Financial arrangements go deeper. President Assad’s relatives and aides reportedly moved significant assets to Russia during this period. First Lady Asma al-Assad, a former banker with JPMorgan, played a pivotal role in tightening the regime’s grip on Syria’s collapsing economy. Meanwhile, Assad’s allies were involved in illegal networks, including drug trafficking and fuel smuggling, as US sanctions officials pointed out.
In addition to direct cash transfers, Assad’s regime also benefited from Iranian-backed programs to funnel foreign currency into Syria. Figures like Assad’s economic advisor, Yasar Ibrahim, used companies with ties to Iran’s Revolutionary Guards to move millions of dollars to benefit the regime.
These financial maneuvers illustrate President Assad’s strategy to survive and consolidate power, even as the regime faces widespread accusations of plundering national wealth and engaging in criminal enterprises. For Russia, this partnership secures a foothold in Syria, strengthens economic and military ties, and further complicates regional and global power relations.
US steps up military operations in Syria
The United States has significantly stepped up its military operations in Syria, aiming to prevent a resurgence of ISIS amid the chaos left by the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime. In a sharp escalation, the US military has conducted more than 75 airstrikes targeting ISIS leaders and training camps in the past two weeks. These airstrikes resulted in the deaths of at least 12 militants and hit areas that were under the control of Syrian regime forces and Russia, one of Assad’s main international allies.
This surge in military activity coincides with the collapse of Assad’s regime after his flight to Moscow on December 8 as rebel forces captured Damascus. This rapid development underscores U.S. concerns about the risks posed by ISIS’ ability to exploit current instability.
General Michael Kurilla, head of the US Central Command (CENTCOM), visited northeastern Syria during this critical period. His visit included talks with the US military and the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), Washington’s key partner in the fight against ISIS. The Kurdish-led coalition SDF has played a vital role in the fight against ISIS, but faces increasing threats from regional actors, complicating U.S. efforts to stabilize the region. There is.
National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan articulated the administration’s concerns and highlighted the risks at this time. “I think the single biggest risk is that ISIS will come back trying to take advantage of the vacuum and instability in Syria after the civil war. I won’t sugarcoat it. This is a real threat and “There is a threat of a return to jihadism and terrorism,” he said.
Syria remains a key node in ISIS’ global operations. The country was once part of the group’s self-proclaimed “caliphate,” which at its peak stretched across large swaths of Iraq and Syria and controlled territory roughly the size of Britain. By 2019, the United Nations had dealt a decisive blow to ISIS and dismantled its territorial base, but the group has adapted and operates as an underground network of sleeper cells across the region.
CENTCOM estimates that approximately 2,500 ISIS fighters remain active across Iraq and Syria. These extremists operate primarily in isolated areas of central and eastern Syria, many of which were previously controlled by the Assad regime and Russian forces. ISIS has become increasingly active this year, with CENTCOM reporting 153 attacks in the first half of the year alone, double the activity recorded during the same period in 2023. However, analysts believe the situation could be even more serious.
Charles Lister, a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute, said in a recent report: ISIS claims only a few of the attacks; we are seeing the scale and complexity of their operations increase, including coordinated ambushes, assassinations, and raids on oil and gas facilities. There is. ”
Further complicating the situation is the fragmented state of post-Assad Syria. Regime collapse creates a power vacuum, and multiple actors compete to fill it. Turkey, one of the most influential foreign states in Syria, has declared that its strategic priority is to neutralize Kurdish militants linked to the SDF. Turkey’s military presence in northern Syria and support for the rebel coalition Syrian National Army (SNA) has put it in direct conflict with the SDF, despite the Turkish government’s claims that it is fighting ISIS. .
The United States, which has about 900 troops in Syria, finds itself in a precarious position. It must balance its alliance with the SDF, which is critical in countering ISIS, with its obligations to Türkiye, a NATO ally. As domestic and international actors pursue conflicting interests in Syria, the United States risks becoming entangled deeper in a complex web of conflicts while trying to prevent a resurgence of jihadist forces.
Russian general assassinated
In a high-profile act of targeted violence, a senior Russian military official, Lieutenant General Igor Kirillov, was assassinated in Moscow this week. Kirillov, head of Russia’s radiological, chemical and biological protection forces, was killed along with his assistant Ilya Polikarpov when an explosive hidden in his electric scooter exploded outside their apartment.
The assassination has been linked to Ukraine, and Russian authorities have detained a 29-year-old Uzbek man who claims to have been scouted by Ukrainian intelligence. In a video released by Russia’s Federal Security Service (FSB), the suspect, handcuffed and visibly shaken, was offered $100,000 and a European passport to carry out the attack. said. The explosives were reportedly delivered to him in Moscow, where he used a car equipped with a live streaming camera to coordinate with organizers based in the Ukrainian city of Dnipropetrovsk.
Ukraine’s Security Service (SBU) has not officially claimed responsibility, but Ukrainian authorities have called Kirillov a “legitimate target” and accused him of overseeing the use of chemical weapons during Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. I am doing it. The day before the assassination, Ukraine indicted Kirillov in absentia on suspicion of war crimes, including deploying banned chemicals. The Russian government has dismissed these allegations and maintains that it dismantled its chemical weapons stockpile in 2017 in accordance with international treaties.
Kirillov’s killing was the most serious assassination of a Russian military official on the mainland since the start of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. The attack sent shock waves across Moscow, with President Vladimir Putin offering condolences and Russian officials offering condolences. Justice is responsible. The Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs described the incident as a terrorist act orchestrated by Kiev and announced plans to raise the issue with the United Nations Security Council.
Images from the explosion site reveal the devastating effects of the attack. The entrance to Kirilov’s apartment in southeast Moscow was badly damaged, with scorch marks on the walls and shattered windows. Two body bags were seen near the scene, underscoring the deadly precision of the attack.
Kirillov’s death comes amid rising tensions and escalating violence in the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine. Although Ukraine has not directly confirmed its involvement, the assassination highlights a new phase in the war in which senior figures from both countries are increasingly targeted.
Kirillov’s role in the alleged use of chemical weapons made him an internationally controversial figure. Britain previously sanctioned him over accusations of war crimes, and the Ukrainian SBU claims that under his leadership Russia used chemicals more than 4,800 times during the war. The Russian government denies these charges and paints Kirillov as a patriot and a victim of the invasion of Ukraine.
The attack also highlights the growing sophistication and scope of Ukraine’s intelligence operations. If confirmed, this would mean a significant escalation of the shadow war between the two countries and signal Kiev’s willingness to take the fight directly to the Russian leadership. As the Kremlin scrambles to respond, the assassination could further intensify the conflict both on and off the battlefield.
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