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A guide to what the 2024 US election means for Washington and the world.
The author is a former MI6 chief and British ambassador to the United Nations.
We often think of the Middle East as being built around the Arab world. Baghdad and Damascus have historically been centers of authority. In the 20th century, Cairo and Beirut became the region’s cultural centers, but over time they declined and their influence was supplanted by Saudi Arabia and the Gulf’s oil and gas riches.
It is surprising that three of the most assertive and powerful countries in the region today, Israel, Turkey, and Iran, are non-Arab states. Each is led by an old warhorse. Benjamin Netanyahu has been Israel’s prime minister for 17 of the past 28 years. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has been in power in Turkey for almost 22 years, and Khamenei has been Iran’s supreme leader for 35 years. Like the Bourbons of France 200 years ago, they learn nothing and forget nothing.
After the humiliating tragedy of Hamas’s brutal attack on October 7, 2023, Israel regained its strength. Its military and intelligence services have turned the tide not only against Hamas but also against Hezbollah and its sponsors in Iran. In the process, Prime Minister Netanyahu ignored advice from Israel’s closest friends and showed little respect for protecting civilian lives. While long-term support for Israel in the West is eroding, its core enemy has been seriously weakened.
Israel presented itself as a new Sparta, a small nation with unparalleled military power. But politicians reject the idea that a political solution with the Palestinians is necessary if the Jewish state is to enjoy lasting peace and security. Israel has no plans to occupy Gaza beyond an indefinite occupation, unless it has an implicit plan to drive the Palestinians into Egypt and, in parallel, annex as much of the occupied West Bank as possible. Sadly, one prediction we can make with confidence is that an independent Palestinian state will not be any closer than it is now, within a year.
As the new year begins, Israel’s attention is focused on Iran, the big loser in 2024. Khamenei has become visibly weaker, both physically and politically. The main candidate to succeed him is now his son Mojtaba. Second-generation dictators come to power on the back of privilege and entitlement. They don’t bear the scars of struggle, and they haven’t learned the hard lessons their fathers learned. Hafez al-Assad was Syria’s ruthless leader, but he knew when to negotiate the limits of power. His son Bashar did not have those skills. As a result, more atrocities were committed, and the regime eventually collapsed.
The experience of losing an ally in Syria should make the Iranian military cautious about dynastic succession. They will seek to ensure that the new supreme leader is not omnipotent within the regime. But the stagnant authoritarian nation’s new leader could bring surprises. Deng Xiaoping and Mikhail Gorbachev are obvious examples. Closer to home for Iran is the transformation of Saudi Arabia under Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. Recognizing the vulnerability of their countries, each sought economic and political strategies, usually involving some degree of openness to the outside world, to support their dictatorships for decades to come. Although this is unlikely to happen in Iran, it cannot be ruled out.
Even if Khamenei continues to wobble for another year or two, a weakened government will create new opportunities for negotiation. Donald Trump may prefer a political deal rather than join Netanyahu’s preferred military option of destroying Iran’s nuclear facilities. Israel will argue that it will prolong negotiations while Iran secretly moves toward developing nuclear weapons, a strategic matter now even more pressing for Iran. These are legitimate concerns. Khamenei also distrusts the United States even more than American politicians distrust Iran. Tehran may need new leadership before Iran changes course.
A very welcome surprise in 2024 was the fall of the Assad regime, paving the way for a better future for the Syrian people. Turkey, like Israel, was last year’s champion but faces challenges in seizing new opportunities. President Erdoğan appears to view Syria through the distorted prism of the Kurdish issue, which will allow Syrian opposition leaders to unite and write a new constitution that recognizes the country’s religious and ethnic diversity. would make things difficult.
President Erdoğan was the outstanding survivor, building Turkey’s power in the region and across Africa. He showed that the philosophy of political Islam can be successful and does not necessarily have to lead to an Islamic state or strict Sharia law. In that sense, he could serve as a model for Ahmed al-Shara, the leader of the Islamist group HTS, currently in power in Damascus.
There are lessons here for Western capitals, as well as Riyadh and Abu Dhabi. We are right to be alarmed by al-Shallah’s extremist background. But the young radical’s path from political violence to national leadership is well-trodden. The diplomatic challenge ahead is to maximize our chances of success in Syria by boldly lifting sanctions, removing terrorist embargoes, and doing everything in our power to help unite the Syrian opposition. be.
The instinct in Western capitals seems to be to slowly let out the ropes and resist the Islamists on ideological grounds. But it is a path that increases the likelihood of either a breakup, as in Libya, or a new dictator, as in Tunisia. Western countries also need to avoid the mistakes of the Bourbons.
